921
FXUS61 KCLE 150550
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
150 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Shower onset on Saturday has delayed a bit, especially across
eastern counties. Chance of thunder remains, but given the
timing widespread strong to severe storms are not expected.
Heavy rain remains the primary concern.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and thunderstorms become more widespread late
Saturday through Sunday. Heavy rain is the primary concern with
a few stronger storms possible Sunday afternoon and evening.

2) High pressure should provide some relief from precipitation
for the start of next week before rain chances return midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The nearly stationary boundary that has lingered across the Ohio
Valley will finally begin to move on Saturday, lifting north as
a warm front. This boundary couple with a midlevel shortwave
will result in widespread showers pushing across the area
beginning Saturday afternoon into the evening. There is a narrow
corridor roughly from Findlay to Marion where some strong to
severe storms may occur with strong winds the primary threat,
but a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. This corridor is the
most likely to see these as daytime instability increases
concurrent with the synoptic forcing. As the storms slowly
spread east, areas will gradually begin to lose that daytime
instability keeping the severe potential to a minimum. By late
tomorrow evening, the entire area should see some showers. To
highlight the scattered severe potential, SPC has kept the
corridor from Marion to Findlay in a Day 2 Slight with a
Marginal extending further east to a line extending roughly from
Sandusky to Canton.

The bigger concern with these widespread showers is the very
heavy and efficient rainfall that is expected to be associated
with them. Deepening warm cloud layers combined with PWAT values
in excess of 2" falling on already saturate surfaces could
result in localized flooding. At times, storm motion may also
becoming parallel to mean flow, suggesting the potential for
isolated training storms to develop which would only enhance the
flood potential. To highlight this concern, WPC has put the
entire area (except far NEOH and NWPA) in a Day 2 Slight Risk
ERO.


KEY MESSAGE 2...
After this shortwave and associated surface low move a cold
front east on Sunday, high pressure is expected to build east
over the area and allow for a brief reprieve from precipitation
across the area for the start of next week. Chances of
precipitation look to increase Wednesday into Thursday as a low
pressure system moves into the region from the central US.
Models have this midweek system developing into a more robust
synoptic trough with more support aloft. Model timing and
positioning of this low still diverge quite a bit, but this may
be another period to keep an eye on for heavy rainfall and the
potential for strong to severe weather.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Some patchy fog and lower stratus will likely produce MVFR and
isolated IFR conditions at southern terminals, but otherwise
expect VFR through most of this afternoon. Isolated light
showers can`t be ruled out across the area between roughly 12Z
and 18Z today, but confidence in placement/coverage is too low
to include in the TAFs at this point. Even if it does rain,
significant impacts to flight conditions are not anticipated.
Confidence in the timing of any late afternoon and evening
convection is pretty low at this point so have broad showers
with PROB30 groups for thunderstorms this evening into tonight.
Will need to make amendments and updates as confidence increases
throughout the day. Either way, late day and evening showers/storms
could produce non-VFR conditions. Winds will be light and
variable throughout the TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with periodic showers and
thunderstorms late Saturday night through Sunday night.
Additional non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
East/southeast winds 10 knots or less are expected through early
this afternoon before east winds increase to 10 to 15 knots this
evening through tonight. Winds will shift to the southwest on
Sunday with flow becoming northwesterly Sunday night through
Monday. May need to consider Small Craft Advisories/Beach
Hazards Statements if onshore winds trend higher, but as of now
winds/waves should remain below criteria. Winds will be out of
the southwest on Tuesday and Wednesday with offshore winds
possibly reaching 15 to 20 knots in the western basin as a cold
front approaches Lake Erie.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15