495
FXUS61 KCLE 040000
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
700 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Rainfall amounts have increased slightly for tomorrow.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain will spread west to east across the area tomorrow bringing
a half to three-quarters of an inch of precipitation.

2) An upper trough over the region will lead to an unsettled pattern
continuing into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Dry weather today will come to an end early tomorrow morning as
a broad upper level trough and accompanying surface low
pressure track east into the Lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
region. Moisture transport from the Gulf will increase area
PWATs on Wednesday to around 1.50" which is above the 90th
percentile for early November at regional sites. Widespread
showers are expected to enter from the west Wednesday morning
and push eastward through the day before tapering off from west
to east in the evening. Can`t rule out a few isolated embedded
thunderstorms tomorrow as SBCAPE values may briefly increase to
a few hundred J/kg in the morning and early afternoon. Severe
threat remains limited given the lower forecasted instability
amount. Overall rainfall amounts will range between 0.25-0.50
inches for much of the forecast area with locally higher amounts
of 0.50-0.75 inches most likely along and south of US-30.
Additionally, a 40-50 LLJ will move overhead tomorrow and allow
for southerly wind gusts to increase to 25-30 MPH.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
There will likely be a window of dry weather on Thursday as the
trough lifts north before another trough sinks south Thursday
night into Friday. This secondary trough will lead to occasional
chances for showers downwind of Lake Erie through the weekend
and into early next week. Cooler temperatures expected this
weekend with highs in the 50s and overnight lows in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR conditions are observed out of the gate and are expected to
continue through tonight. A slug of moisture ahead of an
approaching cold front will bring a period of rain and lower
ceilings west to east across the area on Wednesday. It will be a
gradual progression with rain reaching TOL/FDY early Wednesday
but not reaching ERI/YNG until after 21z (likely reaching CLE by
18z). Some MVFR vis restrictions are possible in the rain,
especially in the afternoon/evening when rain will be moderate
at times. The greater restriction will be ceilings...YNG/ERI may
hold a VFR ceiling until close to 0z, though everyone else
should fall to MVFR from west to east through the morning and
into the afternoon, with some IFR possible during the afternoon.
Was a bit slower to bring down ceilings at CLE than guidance
due to downsloping winds, though an MVFR ceiling should settle
in there after 18z with a 20-30% risk for IFR at CLE.

Winds will remain out of a southerly direction through the TAF
period. Speeds will generally be 5-10kt tonight, though may dip
a bit lighter early. Speeds increase to 10-15kt on Wednesday. A
40-50kt low-level jet will overspread Northwest OH tonight and
gradually shift east across the area on Wednesday. Have LLWS
included at TOL/FDY beneath that jet late tonight. Included wind
gusts beneath the stronger jet on Wednesday, though it will not
be well-mixed within the rain and we may be closer to LLWS
beneath the jet and within the steadier rain on Wednesday.

Outlook...VFR returns from west to east late Wednesday night
into Thursday behind a cold front. Low pressure and a cold front
crossing through the region Friday into Saturday bring the next
potential round of non-VFR in rain showers/low ceilings.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly winds 12-18 knots will continue across Lake Erie today
into tomorrow morning. A 40-50 knot low level jet will move overhead
the Lower Great Lakes during the day tomorrow which may
increase southerly winds to 15-20 knots Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Given the southerly component, the highest wave heights
of 3-5 feet will remain across the open waters despite the
higher wind speeds. Winds shift southwesterly behind a cold
front Wednesday night into Thursday before diminishing to 10-15
knots by Thursday evening. Winds turn northwesterly in the wake
of a trough Friday into the weekend with wind speeds generally
between 10 and 20 knots. Conditions, particularly in the central
basin, will be choppy with wave heights 2-4 feet expected.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date    Toledo     Mansfield     Cleveland     Akron     Youngstown    Erie
11-03   77(1987)    76(2015)      79(1961)    80(1961)    80(1961)    80(1961)
11-04   80(2003)    77(2015)      79(2003)    76(2015)    77(2003)    78(2015)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...13