909
FXUS61 KCLE 290057
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
857 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will drop south across the local area through Friday
morning. High pressure builds across the Great Lakes region on
Friday and will persist through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
845 PM Update...
Showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms along a cold front
are moving southeast off of Lake Erie. Made a few adjustments to
the forecast including increasing PoPs primarily across
northern Ohio and northwestern PA to better reflect radar trends
and latest high res guidance. There`s also some potential for
low stratus and patchy fog behind the front later tonight so
added patchy fog to inland locations through early Friday
morning.

Previous Discussion...

A cold front will sag south across the local area through early
Friday morning. Ongoing scattered showers will continue to
spread east across the region through this evening with isolated
thunderstorms possible across Northwest Ohio and along the Lake
Erie lakeshore through tonight. Some gusty winds and locally
heavy rainfall may accompany any stronger storm. Rainfall
amounts will generally range between 0.25-0.50" with isolated
amounts 0.75" to 1.00" possible along the lakeshore in Northeast
Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Overnight lows tonight will
settle in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Some lake effect rain showers will likely linger across Northeast
Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania early Friday morning with cloud
cover persisting into the afternoon. High pressure will build over
the Great Lakes region during the day on Friday allowing for any
remaining showers and cloud cover to gradually dissipate. Cooler
behind the front on Friday with highs in the mid to upper 60s and
overnight lows in the low to mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure becomes established over the Great Lakes
region while an upper level low lingers over the Northeast. Some
surface troughing may persist across the eastern Great Lakes on
Saturday but the local area will remain dry through the short term
period. Below normal temperatures are expected this weekend with
high temperatures on Saturday in the low 70s increasing slightly
into the mid 70s by Sunday. Overnight lows each night will drop into
the mid 40s to low 50s. Low temperatures may dip into the lower 40s
across extreme eastern portions of Erie and Crawford Counties in
Pennsylvania.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface high pressure builds east towards the Mid-Atlantic
region through Tuesday. Southerly return flow will allow for
high temperatures to rise into the upper 70s to near 80 degrees
through Wednesday. Precipitation chances return mid-week as a
low pressure system approaches the region from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
A line of showers with isolated embedded thunderstorms along a
cold front will likely weaken while moving southeast into the
area tonight. Most terminals have a chance of at least a brief
period of rain for the first few hours of the TAF period,
although confidence in the placement of any thunderstorms
remains low at this point given unfavorable instability. Any
precip could produce periods of non-VFR vsbys and cigs. There
will likely be scattered instances of MVFR ceilings ahead of
the cold front, best chance across NW PA. MVFR and low-end VFR
ceilings are likely areawide overnight and some patchy fog can`t
be ruled out at inland terminals late tonight through early
Friday morning. Guidance suggests that ceilings will increase
across NE OH/NW PA at some point between 09Z and 12Z Friday
morning with low-end VFR developing in lake effect clouds late
Friday morning into Friday afternoon. Ceilings should improve
significantly as high pressure builds into the region by late
Friday afternoon.

Winds will be out of the south/southwest at 6 to 12 knots ahead
of the front before becoming northerly and diminishing to 10
knots or less through the remainder of the TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in areas of fog and low stratus
Friday night into early Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories and a high swim risk remain in effect through
4 AM for areas east of the Lake Erie Islands. Southwest winds have
increased to 15-25 knots with gusts to 30 knots on Lake Erie. A cold
front extends from Quebec to southern lower Michigan and will push
south across the lake through 10 PM. Convergence along the front
will support both thunderstorms and waterspouts this evening. In
addition, waves are forecast to build to 4 to 7 feet before winds
shift to the north and decrease into the 10-20 knot range overnight.

Conditions will remain somewhat choppy into Friday with northwest
winds of 10-15 knots and waves of 1-3 feet. High pressure will build
over the region through the weekend with marine conditions
improving. A chance of waterspouts will linger Friday afternoon and
evening ahead of the building high.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 4 AM EDT Friday for OHZ010>012-
     089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 4 AM EDT Friday for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for LEZ144>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...13
NEAR TERM...13/15
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...15
MARINE...10