613
FXUS61 KCLE 121926
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
326 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The probability of record-breaking temperatures is increasing
for Tuesday. Otherwise, no significant changes needed with this
update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unsettled weather expected Tuesday through the middle of the week
with record high temperatures possible on Tuesday.

2) A strong low pressure system moves through the region with
rain, strong winds, and the coldest air of the season thus far Friday
through the weekend. Sub-freezing temperatures are likely across
portions of the area Saturday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The local area will be in the warm sector ahead of an
approaching cold front tonight through Tuesday before the front
finally pushes southeast across the area late Tuesday into Wednesday.
A shortwave will cross Lake Erie and NE OH/NW PA tonight into
early Tuesday morning, resulting in a chance of isolated showers
and possibly a few rumbles of thunder across the northeastern
portion of the local area.

Deep warm air advection is expected on Tuesday with widespread
temperatures in the 80s expected. Several locations across
northern Ohio will likely reach the mid to upper 80s (best
chance along/west of I-71), which will challenge daily high
temperature records (see Climate section at the bottom of this
AFD). In addition to the warm temperatures, dew points will
climb well into the 60s Tuesday afternoon so it will certainly
feel muggier than the recent stretch of crisp early fall
weather. It will also be quite breezy with southwest wind gusts
to 20 to 30 mph expected during peak diurnal mixing late Tuesday
morning into Tuesday afternoon.

The best chance of precipitation will arrive with the cold front
late Tuesday night into Wednesday. There will be instability and
plenty of moisture across the area so thunderstorms are
possible, although widespread cloud cover and showers early in
the day will mitigate the risk of stronger thunderstorms. Rain
may be moderate to heavy at times Wednesday morning into early
Wednesday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
A brief break in precip is expected Wednesday evening through
Thursday morning, but the next (and more potent) system will
move into the region starting Thursday afternoon. Showers are
expected and a few thunderstorms are possible as the system`s
cold front approaches and moves east across the area Thursday
afternoon through early Friday with scattered lake-enhanced
showers continuing through Friday and maybe as late as Saturday
as the associated strong upper trough lags behind the initial
surface front. It will be quite windy as strong high pressure
attempts to build east into the region Friday and gusts to 35
to 40 mph are likely areawide Friday afternoon with locally
higher gusts possible close to Lake Erie. The back side of the
system will usher some of the coldest temperatures of the season
thus far into the area with widespread highs in the upper 40s
into the 50s expected Saturday. Frost headlines are possible as
temperatures dip into the upper 30s Friday night, although
there is a higher chance of frost and even freeze headlines as
temps drop into the upper 20s to mid 30s Saturday night.
Temperatures might even be cold enough across portions of NW PA
to warrant a low-end chance of the first few snowflakes of the
season mixing in with rain early Saturday. Temperatures will
begin to recover Sunday as the high takes control of the eastern
CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
Earlier lower clouds have finally cleared out, leaving VFR
conditions that should mainly persist through the TAF period.
A brief surge of mid-level moisture and lift will lead to a
cloud deck around 10,000 feet moving across the area late
tonight into early Tuesday...some showers may fall out of this
deck across northern terminals (TOL-CLE-ERI), with the greatest
potential at ERI where a PROB30 was introduced.

South-southwest winds this afternoon will remain at a similar
direction through Tuesday, veering slightly more southwest
Tuesday afternoon. Speeds of 6-12kt will remain common through
much of tonight, increasing to 10-15kt with gusts to 25kt on
Monday. Included a brief window of marginal LLWS at TOL early
Tuesday morning due to an expected 40kt low-level jet atop a
near-surface inversion. The low-level jet is several knots
weaker elsewhere, precluding LLWS in the other TAFs.

Outlook...Intermittent non-VFR likely late Tuesday night into
Wednesday with showers and a lower potential for thunderstorms.
Additional non-VFR in rain showers along with gusty winds
likely Thursday night through Friday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds to 10 to 20 knots are expected over Lake Erie
through Tuesday. The highest winds will be in the open waters
through Tuesday afternoon, but winds in nearshore zones in the
western basin will approach 20 knots Tuesday afternoon. In
general, the offshore flow will focus any higher waves into the
open waters, but will need to keep an eye on wind speeds and the
resulting wave heights from roughly Willowick OH to Ripley NY
Tuesday afternoon. Winds will shift to the west/northwest and
diminish to 10 knots or less behind a cold front Tuesday night
into early Wednesday with north/northeast winds to 10 to 20
knots developing by Wednesday night. The most unsettled marine
conditions of the week (and the season thus far) will arrive
Friday as a strong low pressure system moves across the area.
West/northwest winds to 25 to 35 knots are currently forecast
and Gale Warnings will likely be needed for the end of the week
if the forecast remains valid. Winds should gradually diminish
late Friday through Saturday, although Small Craft Advisories
will be needed through the first half of the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Temperatures are forecast to be near record high values across
Northwest and North Central Ohio on Tuesday. Records for October 13
are listed below for the official climate locations.


Date    Toledo    Mansfield    Cleveland    Akron    Youngstown    Erie

10-13  83(1975)   84(1969)    82(1969)    82(1969)   83(1969)    83(1983)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...15