663
FXUS61 KCLE 251802
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
202 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of a cold front on
Wednesday, and again on Thursday afternoon. A few strong to severe
storms are possible, mainly across Northwest Ohio Wednesday
afternoon and evening.

2) Temperatures will trend warmer by the end of the weekend into
early next week with increasing shower and thunderstorm
chances.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A mid-level shortwave (25-30 knots of WSW 700 mb flow) will traverse
the base of an upper-level trough Wednesday into Thursday across
the Great Lakes as a cold front sweeps east through the area on
Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the
front Wednesday afternoon and evening, primarily impacting
portions of Northwest Ohio along the I-75 corridor, and again
Thursday afternoon, generally east of the I-77 corridor. The
greatest threat for organized thunderstorms on Wednesday will
be west of the area across portions of north-central Indiana,
though depending on the eastward extent of the instability
gradient, a few of our counties along the I-75 corridor across
Northwest Ohio could see some strong to severe storms as well,
generally between 6 and 10 PM. Damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph
appear to be the primary concern, though large hail up to 1 inch
and a brief tornado also cannot be ruled out.

Showers and thunderstorms should largely diminish overnight as the
shortwave swings east through the Ohio Valley, though redevelopment
is possible again Thursday afternoon with the aid of diurnal
heating, mainly east of the I-77 corridor. The latest guidance
suggests a decreasing risk for strong to severe storms Thursday
afternoon as the greatest coverage of storms continues to trend
further east of the area into Pennsylvania and Southeast Ohio.


KEY MESSAGE 2..
After a brief stint of drier and seasonable weather, a large
upper-level ridge will enter the region towards the end of the
weekend into early next week with increasing temperatures and
humidity. Highs will reach above average in the mid to upper 80s
on Sunday, potentially touching 90 in some spots by Monday. In
addition, we`ll also have to continue to monitor the potential
for showers and thunderstorms, especially Monday night through
Tuesday as an upper-level trough swings east through the Upper
Great Lakes.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Scattered to broken cumulus cloud deck in place across northeast
Ohio will trend towards scattered for this afternoon. High
pressure will be overhead tonight and can not rule out MVFR
visibilities at CAK and YNG late tonight in the 09-13Z window.
Added a couple hour tempo towards sunrise and will need to
monitor for brief IFR conditions. Otherwise, the weather will
remain quiet through the TAF period before a front and the
potential for thunderstorms arrive later in the day on
Wednesday. North to northwest winds at NE Ohio and NW
Pennsylvania terminals will transition to a light land breeze
with southerly winds after 00Z tonight. South to southwest winds
of 5-10 knots will develop at all terminals on Wednesday ahead
of an approaching front.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure overhead will result in lake breezes on Lake Erie
today, especially east of the Lake Erie Islands. Land breezes
will return tonight with south to southwest winds on Wednesday
ahead of a cold front. Winds increase to 10-20 knots ahead of
the front on Wednesday night with waves of 2 to 4 feet in the
open waters. Scattered thunderstorms may also accompany the
front from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning and may
result in erratic wind/wave conditions. Winds shift to the north
behind the front on Thursday night at 10-15 knots but are
expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria as winds
decrease quickly into Friday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kahn
AVIATION...10
MARINE...10