442
FXUS61 KCLE 271849
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
249 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast. Precipitation chances
for Thursday continue to trend later.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) High pressure will continue through Wednesday with dry,
seasonable weather expected. Precipitation returns Thursday with low
confidence in timing.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure will continue to build across the northern Great Lakes
through Wednesday with pleasant, seasonable weather expected.
Temperatures through then will be in the low to mid 70s with
overnight lows down into the low to mid 50s. The low pressure off
the east coast currently will start to drift westward this evening
and there will be a low chance in precipitation across far NE OH and
NW PA, but confidence is low since there will be plenty of dry air
across the region to compete with. The next chance for precipitation
will be with a low pressure system moving into the region from the
west on Thursday. There`s still low confidence on this system as
model guidance has continued to vary with timing as it moves
eastward.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
VFR is expected across the area through late tonight before
patchy inland fog and low stratus develop and mid-level clouds
move in from the east late tonight into early Monday. IFR
conditions are likely at KMFD early Monday morning, although
there is a low-end chance that sub-VFR conditions briefly
impact KCAK/KCLE. There`s some uncertainty with how low
ceilings get during the day Monday at KCAK/KYNG/KERI. At the
moment, ceilings will probably be around 3500 ft, although MVFR
ceilings are possible, especially at KERI. Some guidance
suggests that ceilings might even dip as low as IFR, but would
like to see how guidance and observations trend before becoming
more pessimistic with the forecast.

Winds will be out of the north at 8 to 14 knots with gusts to
around 20 knots through early this evening before winds diminish
to 10 knots or less tonight through the rest of the TAF period.

Outlook...Mainly VFR expected through Wednesday, though periods
of early morning patchy fog and lower clouds are possible. Non-
VFR possible in scattered showers on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
There will be choppy conditions across Lake Erie beginning this
evening with onshore winds increasing to 10-20 knots and waves
building to 2-4 feet. This will continue through Monday afternoon
when the winds and waves begin to subside to less than 10 knots and
less than 2 feet across the lake. High pressure will build back
overhead during the middle of the week and winds will then shift to
be out of the south by Tuesday night at 5-10 knots. Low pressure
begins to move into the region early Thursday and winds will
increase out of the south-southwest to 10-15 knots through the late
evening.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...15
MARINE...23