422
FXUS61 KCLE 142358
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
758 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will settle south of the area by this evening
as high pressure builds across the area tonight and Tuesday. The
front will lift north into the area Wednesday as a warm front, and
will push north of the area by Thursday as low pressure moves
east into the Great Lakes. This low will bring a cold front south
through the area Thursday into Friday. The boundary will waver
across the area this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Isolated/scattered showers with a few thunderstorms will
continue to impact areas along and east of I-71 this afternoon.
This activity will gradually diminish diurnally and expect
mainly dry conditions by 00Z. Recent radar trends suggest very
short lived convection with individual cells raining out within
a 30-60 minute period, and given limited organization and lower
rainfall rates, flash flood risk is low at this time.

High pressure will build into the area tonight with clearing
skies and light winds. This may lead to fog development across
portions of the area, especially east of I-71 where rain fell
over the past 12-24 hours. Kept dense fog mention out of the
forecast at this time, however GLAMP/HREF probs for dense fog
are somewhat elevated, especially in vicinity of Youngstown
northeast to Meadville.

High pressure will keep conditions dry for most of the area
Tuesday into Tuesday night, with any precipitation Tuesday
expected to remain south of the area near a nearly stationary
boundary. Another day with above normal temperatures expected
Tuesday with highs in the upper 80s to around 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms expected Wednesday as a mid
level shortwave slowly moves northeast across the region,
reflected in the forecast with high likely to cat pops. This
wave will lift northeast of the local area by Wednesday night
with pops decreasing in the absence of large scale forcing,
although some lingering showers cannot be ruled out Wednesday
night.

Pops increase again by Thursday afternoon in the likely/cat
range as a potent shortwave digs east southeast into the Great
Lakes, with a surface low tracking east through the lakes
helping to push a cold front southeast into the local area.
Precip chances decrease Thursday night as the atmosphere
diurnally stabilizes. No SPC severe weather outlooks for either
day given lack of deep layer shear and low likelihood of
organized convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Rather zonal pattern over the region Friday into Saturday with a
lingering boundary across the southern part of the area pushing
south by the weekend, as high pressure becomes entrenched across
the Great Lakes. A shortwave is expected to track eastward
across the area late Saturday night into Sunday, providing the
next best chances for precipitation. Canadian high pressure
attempts to regain control over the Great Lakes Sunday night
into Monday, with an amplifying ridge over the central CONUS
into next week bringing more northeast mid/upper flow across the
lower Great Lakes and Ohio valley. Temperatures may be closer to
normal over the weekend, but the building ridge may bring above
normal temps back to the area next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Drier air will continue to work into the area behind the weak
cold frontal boundary this evening. This will set up mainly VFR
conditions tonight through Tuesday, however, small temp/dew
point spreads, clear skies, and light winds will cause patchy
fog development tonight. This will favor areas that saw rain
earlier today, so added TEMPO groups to KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG.
Confidence is highest for the KYNG area, so added some 1/2 mile
visibilities there. Any fog will dissipate by 13Z Tuesday.

Light and variable winds tonight will turn mainly S to SW at
5-10 knots Tuesday, but a lake breeze will affect KCLE and KERI
by midday, shifting winds to N to NW.

Outlook...Non-VFR will return on Wednesday and Thursday in
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Non-VFR chances may
persist on Friday afternoon and evening in showers and
thunderstorms, particularly across the southern portion of the
area.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside of thunderstorms, winds on Lake Erie are generally expected
to be generally 10 knots or less into mid-next week. Winds will
briefly increase to near 15 knots and shift towards the west to
northwest behind a cold front Thursday into Friday. This could usher
in some 2 to perhaps 3-footers across the central and eastern basin
of Lake Erie. The most widespread thunderstorm chances across the
lake will occur in the afternoon and evening hours on Wednesday and
Thursday. Gusty winds will be the primary concern with any stronger
storms.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...03
NEAR TERM...03
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM...03
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...23