630
FXUS61 KCLE 110510
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1210 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough will persist across the Eastern Great Lakes through
Tuesday, followed by another low pressure system and cold front
on Wednesday. High pressure will then build across the region
Thursday and gradually weaken by Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Main concern for the near term period will be the the continued
potential for heavy lake effect snow across Northeast Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania, particularly later this evening into
Tuesday morning when the highest snowfall rates are expected.
Current headlines remain unchanged with this update with an
additional 3 to 5 inches of snow expected in the Advisory areas
and generally 5 to 8 inches with isolated amounts up to 10
inches for the Warning areas.

Periodic and mostly loosely-organized and transient lake effect
snow bands continue across portions of Northeast Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania this afternoon, with impacts largely
confined to the more persistent and heavier snow bands. Looking
towards this evening and overnight, main focus will be on the
loosely- organized northwest to southeast lake event band
impacting Ashtabula County this afternoon, aided by an upstream
Lake Huron moisture connection. We anticipate this band to
become more intense and organized as surface convergence
increases this evening, potentially resulting in snowfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour at times across portions of inland Erie
and Crawford Counties (PA). There may be another lake effect
band, albeit somewhat less intense, that impacts portions of
eastern Cuyahoga/Geauga/northern Summit and Portage Counties
with snowfall rates up to 1 inch later this evening.

Will also be watching further to the west Tuesday morning as an
upper-level ridge begins to build east across the region,
shifting boundary layer flow towards the west. A surface trough
will also swing through the Eastern Great Lakes which will increase
surface convergence and potentially squeeze out a brief period
of moderate to heavy lake effect snow for the Tuesday morning
commute across the eastern Cleveland metro with rates up to 1
inch per hour. Otherwise, the building ridge will gradually
shift any residual lake effect snow northeast along the
lakeshore, and eventually offshore by Tuesday evening as the
next low pressure system approaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A low pressure system will move east through the Great Lakes on
Wednesday, though any lake effect precipitation is initially expected
to remain offshore Wednesday morning. This lake effect
precipitation will eventually move onshore across Northeast Ohio
and Northwest Pennsylvania Wednesday afternoon and evening as a
cold front pushes east through the area, resulting in a mixed-
precipitation type of rain and snow.

An upper-level ridge and surface high pressure will build
across the region on Thursday, setting the stage for a period of
quieter weather over the next several days in addition to
increasing temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Above-average temperatures in the mid to upper 50s and perhaps
even lower 60s are favored for much of the long term period as
an upper- level ridge persists across the Central CONUS/Great
Lakes into Sunday. By late Sunday, an upper- level trough will
sweep east through the Great Lakes, accompanied by a low
pressure system and cold front at the surface bringing
widespread rain to the region. Slightly seasonably-cool
temperatures in the upper 40s to near 50 will return behind the
front on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR will prevail in north central and NW Ohio through today and
tonight keeping flight conditions good at KTOL, KFDY, and KMFD
outside of some brief passing flurries or light snow showers.
The main show will be the continuation of lake-effect snow
showers in NE Ohio and NW PA this morning. Current radar shows a
large area of loosely organized snow showers streaming
southeastward off the lake in the NW flow, so prevailed light
snow showers at KCLE, KCAK, KYNG, and KERI through mid morning.
The Ohio terminals should see improvement in the 13-15Z
timeframe as the bands consolidate and lift northeastward in
response to the flow becoming more W, but snow showers will
likely persist at KERI into early or mid afternoon. Frequent
MVFR and occasional IFR will occur in these snow showers, but
there will also be periods of VFR when terminals get in between
snow showers. This continues to make for low overall confidence
in terms of timing the lowest periods of cigs and vis, so
continued the use of PROB30 and TEMPO groups. All sites will
become VFR by late afternoon.

NW winds will continue to gust to 20-25 knots at times early
this morning but will generally be diminishing to 10-15 knots
while becoming W. These W winds will become SW and increase to
15-25 knots again late this morning through the afternoon and
into tonight. Gusts of 25-30 knots are possible near the lake
late this afternoon and evening.

Outlook...Periods of non-VFR conditions will continue in
northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania with lake effect
showers through midweek.

&&

.MARINE...
Northwest winds 15-25 knots will increase a bit into the 20-30
knot range tonight and Tuesday, with winds gradually backing to
a more due westerly direction by Tuesday afternoon. Winds
shift more southwesterly Tuesday evening into Wednesday,
increasing a bit more to 25-35 knots (with potential for 40 knot
gusts) Tuesday night. Winds weaken slightly on Wednesday, but
hang in the 20-30 knot range. In general, winds will be
strongest across the central and eastern basin and relatively
weaker across the western basin. Winds will start gradually
subsiding while remaining west-southwest Wednesday night and
Thursday, finally falling below 15 knots across the entire lake
late Thursday night as high pressure builds in. Tranquil marine
conditions should linger into the start of the weekend.

Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all nearshore zones
until 8 PM Tuesday. A Gale Watch kicks in east of Avon Point
from 7 PM Tuesday to 4 AM Wednesday, where the greatest
potential for winds to marginally reach sustained gales exists.
West of the Gale Watch, Small Craft Advisories will need to be
extended, though will do that once we get the gale headlines
more hammered down. A Low Water Advisory will likely be needed
from Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday due to the prolonged
period of strong southwest winds.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for OHZ011>014-
     089.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for OHZ021>023.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for PAZ001.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 PM EST Tuesday for PAZ002-003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for LEZ142>149.
     Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through late Tuesday night for
     LEZ146>149-166>169.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn
SHORT TERM...Kahn
LONG TERM...Kahn
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...Sullivan