035
FXUS64 KCRP 081127
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
527 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 525 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

- Increased hazard impacts following a strong cold front Sunday
  morning: fire weather, marine, and colder temperatures

- A Fire Weather Watch is now in effect Sunday. Critical fire
  weather conditions Sunday with elevated fire weather conditions
  lingering into the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1104 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Warm conditions are expected to last one more day today with highs
predominantly in the 90s across the region. The aforementioned cold
front is expected to sweep through the region early Sunday morning,
clearing the coast by midmorning (12-15Z). This is expected to bring
a much needed cool down across the region dropping highs to 70s
Sunday and 60s Monday. The coldest temperatures can be expected
Monday night into Tuesday mornings with mostly upper 30s to lower
40s expected across South Texas. The drier conditions and subsiding
winds will allow the region to efficiently radiationally cool and
could lead to some lower temperatures.

In addition to the added cold temperatures, higher winds and drier
conditions can be expected beginning Sunday in the wake of the
front. This is expected to combine with critically dry fuels and
lead to critical fire weather conditions across the region. Winds
are expected to be in excess of 20 to 25 MPH with gusts around 35 to
40 MPH as relative humidity values plummet around 15-30%. A Red Flag
Warning will likely be issued during the next forecast package given
the high confidence in critical fire weather conditions. Elevated
fire weather conditions are expected to linger through midweek, as
inefficient moisture recovery will lead to persisting low relative
humidity values.

Lastly, the other hazard expected will be marine conditions with
Small Craft Advisory to low end Gale conditions possible. The
highest potential for Gale Conditions will be around Sunday night
into early Monday morning (40-50%). Winds are expected to subside by
Monday afternoon-evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Periods of IFR/LIFR are expected this morning across the eastern
sites. By mid-morning, all sites will return to VFR. Winds will
begin to pick up around 10-12z across the northern sites as a cold
front pushes through.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1104 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

South to southwest gentle to moderate breeze (BF 3-4) is expected
to persist through Saturday night. A strong cold front will push
through early Sunday morning clearing the coast by midmorning
(12-15Z). This will bring strong to near Gale force (BF 6-7)
north to northeasterly winds in its wake into Monday afternoon.
Seas in the wake of the front will also build over the open waters
tremendously to 10-15 feet. There`s a low chance (10-20%), of
showers and thunderstorms along the front on Sunday morning.
Conditions are expected to improve by late Monday afternoon with
seas subsiding below 7 feet and winds diminishing below 20 knots.
Generally, moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) south to southeasterly winds
will follow on Tuesday, strengthening to strong (BF 6) Tuesday
night into Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1104 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

A strong cold front will push across South Texas early Sunday
morning clearing the coast by around midmorning (12-15Z), causing
critical fire weather conditions in its wake through Sunday evening.
North to northeasterly sustained winds of 20-25 mph with gusts of 35-
40 mph and relative humidity dropping to 15-30 percent, will cause a
significant increase in the fire weather risk. Although winds
decrease heading into the work week, minimum relative humidity
values will continue to be very low, dropping into the teens (Mon)
and 20s (Tue-Wed), keeping at least elevated fire weather conditions
intact through the middle of next week each afternoon. In addition,
Energy Release Component (ERC) values are extremely high, ranging
from the 80-95th percentile. Sunday will be the greatest threat for
fire weather, with notable elevated conditions following into
midweek.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    89  64  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          89  56  74  39 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            92  63  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             92  61  79  45 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          83  64  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           92  60  77  40 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        92  63  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       83  67  76  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST Sunday for TXZ230>234-240>244-
     246-247.

GM...None.
&&

$$


DISCUSSION...NP/92
AVIATION...JCP/84