Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
330 FXUS64 KCRP 171842 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1242 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1235 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 - Above average temperatures continue through mid week, then cooler behind a cold front over the weekend. - Low to medium chances for showers/thunderstorms (20-40%) across the northern Brush Country, northern Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads Wednesday, increasing to a medium to high chance (30-60%) across S TX on Thursday through Friday ahead of a cold front. - Small Craft Advisories possibly needed Wednesday through Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1235 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 A southwest flow aloft with an embedded short wave moving across TX has led to very weak isolated showers from Laredo to Victoria Crossroads this morning, but a majority of S TX will remain dry. There is a low (5-20%) chance of north moving light "streamer" showers overnight into Tuesday and continuing through early Wednesday, mainly along the coast and over the coastal waters. Rain chances increase across the northern portions of the Brush Country to the Victoria Crossroads on Wednesday but remain between 20-35% chance of occurring. This is due to increased moisture combined with a weak embedded short wave moving northeast across the region. Rain chances ramp up Thursday through Friday in response to a combination of deeper moisture (PWATs 1.7-1.9 inches), and an approaching long wave trough/cut off low. There is also a boundary that is forecast to move into Central TX by Thursday, but model solutions differ with respect to whether this boundary is a pre- frontal boundary or an actual cold front, and there are timing discrepancies with this boundary moving into S TX varying sometime between Thursday through Saturday morning. Strength of the cold front also varies between the models. Thus, lots of uncertainty for the latter part of this week with respect to storm chances and timing issues. Most likely scenario, is a pre-frontal boundary moves into S TX late Thursday/Thursday night and stalls, then a second surge of high pressure with CAA sometime Friday or Friday night as another upper disturbance swings across TX. Rain chances still look better Thu/Thu night with the pre-frontal boundary due to higher instability and deeper moisture ahead of it. Conditions look a tad more stable with the second surge of high pressure/cold front. As for any strong to severe storms, a lot of things need to come together at the right time. Therefore, confidence is very low that there will be any strong/severe storms. As for any flooding, the ground is dry and we can use the rain, thus not expecting any widespread flooding. Can not rule out localized minor flooding due to high rainfall rates and/or storms sitting along a stalled boundary. A low to medium (15-35%) chance of rain continues into the weekend along with cooler temperatures. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 VFR conditions expected through this evening. Patchy light fog is expected once again overnight, but more patchy and light with generally VSBY`s between 3-5SM, mainly VCT to ALI. This is due to more expected mid level clouds and slightly stronger winds overnight. Periods of MVFR CIGs will between 10-15Z Tuesday morning is expected across S TX. Southerly wind gusts to around 25 knots can be expected through this afternoon and around 20 knots for Tuesday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1235 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 A south to southeast moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) breeze this afternoon and tonight. Slightly lower winds Tuesday, but increasing to fresh to strong Wednesday night through Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory may be necessary. Winds are expected to shift to the east then northeast either Friday or Saturday as a cold front moves across the Coastal Waters. Rain chances increase through the latter half of this week, with a medium chance (30-60%). && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1235 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 Increase in low level moisture with minimum RH values remaining above 40% will help limit fire weather concerns across South Texas. The winds are expected to strengthen through mid week ahead of a cold front. The cold front is expected to move through S TX sometime between Thursday night and Friday night. High ERC values and dry fuels are still in place, so caution is urged around any sparks or open flames. Rain will increase the latter half of this week and into the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 70 86 71 86 / 0 0 10 20 Victoria 66 87 66 86 / 0 10 10 40 Laredo 72 91 72 92 / 0 0 0 10 Alice 67 90 68 89 / 0 0 10 20 Rockport 71 83 72 83 / 0 10 10 20 Cotulla 70 90 70 90 / 0 0 10 20 Kingsville 68 89 69 88 / 0 0 10 10 Navy Corpus 73 82 74 81 / 0 10 20 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TE/81 AVIATION...TE/81