Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
924 FXUS64 KCRP 161135 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 535 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 529 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 - Above average temperatures continue through early next week. - Low to medium chances for showers/thunderstorms (20-40%) across the northern Brush Country and medium chances (30-50%) across the northern Coastal Plains beginning Wednesday, increasing to a medium to high chance (30-70%) across S TX on Thursday ahead of a cold front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1136 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 We`ll finally start to see the pattern change here in the next few days as high pressure shifts away form South Texas. Temperatures will remain above normal through the middle of the week before a cold front approaches the area. Models have held onto the cold front moving through late Thursday night into Friday morning, but this timing is still uncertain. Even with the timing uncertainty, we are still expecting chances for showers and thunderstorms to develop Wednesday and persist through Friday. Wednesday will see a low to medium (20-50%) chance of showers and thunderstorms before increasing to a medium to high chance (30-70%) chance Thursday. There is some concern that there could be some strong thunderstorms on Thursday, but this will be dependent on the timing of the front. This is still 5 days out, so we will have to continue watching the evolution of this to determine how likelihood of strong storms and where the best chances for rain will be. Behind the front, temperatures will cool a bit and a low (20-30%) chance of showers may continue. Patchy to areas of fog can be expected each morning through early next week, mainly inland Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads. Brief periods of visibilities down to a 1/4 of a mile will be possible. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 529 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 Mostly VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF cycle at area terminals. However, visibility restrictions remain in place at all terminals, but LRD, this morning owing to fog formation. ALI/VCT terminals are currently at LIFR levels with dense fog affecting these sites. The fog is forecast to lift by 15Z today, with a return to VFR, but another round of fog is forecast at ALI/VCT late tonight. Expect generally light southerly winds through the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 1136 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 A south to southeast moderate (BF 4) breeze will persist through the rest of the weekend before increasing to a moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) breeze Monday night. A cold front will approach the area Wednesday, increasing winds to fresh to strong late Wednesday through Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory may be necessary. Winds will diminish to a moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) breeze and shift to the southwest to west Thursday night. Winds will shift to the north to northeast Friday behind a cold front. Rain chances increase the middle of next week ahead of the cold front, with a medium chance (40-70%) as the cold front moves through the region. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1136 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 Light winds and continuing moisture advection will help limit fire weather concerns across South Texas. High ERC values and dry fuels are still in place, so caution is urged around any sparks or open flames. The next chance for rain will be the middle of next week as a cold front approaches South Texas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 87 68 85 69 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 88 65 86 64 / 0 0 10 0 Laredo 92 68 92 71 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 91 65 90 67 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 82 70 83 70 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 91 66 91 69 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 89 66 88 68 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 81 72 81 73 / 0 0 0 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LS/77 AVIATION...ANM/88