Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
424 FXUS64 KCRP 302318 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 618 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 607 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 - Low to medium (30-70%) chance of showers and thunderstorms beginning late in the weekend and continuing into early next week. Greatest chances for rain are Monday into early Tuesday. - Moderate to major risk of heat related impacts through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 We are all excited about the prospect of the upcoming rain, but we need to pay attention to the potential for heat related impacts Sunday. Highs will continue to reach into the upper 90s to low 100s, with heat index values between 105-112 in the afternoon. Those in the Brush Country should be especially cautious when working or playing outside as a major to extreme (levels 3-4 of 4) heat risk is anticipated. With many residents likely outdoors for the Labor Day weekend, practicing heat safety will be critical. Please remember to stay hydrated, take frequent breaks, and avoid prolonged direct sun exposure. Additional safety tips are available at weather.gov/heat. By Sunday, the ridge will move to the west with a shortwave riding along the eastern periphery. This will combine with abundant moisture (PWAT values reaching 2+ inches) and a stalled boundary over the area to bring us some of the rain we desperately need. A low to medium (20-70%) chance of showers and thunderstorms will develop late Sunday and continue through Tuesday morning. Once again, guidance is still unclear on how far south the moisture will make it into the area, so have continued to lower PoPs just a bit for Sunday and even into Monday. Even so, expect that there could be high rainfall rates at times which could lead to isolated flash flooding. WPC has maintained a marginal risk of excessive rainfall over the northern tier of counties on Sunday/Sunday night, then expanded this to cover most of South Texas for Monday/Monday night. Rain chances will diminish by Tuesday as the stalled boundary moves across the area bringing drier air. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 607 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period, though brief MVFR CIGs are possible for ALI between 11Z-15Z. Rain showers over VCT remain a possibility for the next few hours so included a brief TEMPO for this. South-southeasterly 10-15 knot winds, with gusts to around 20 knots, will diminish to become generally light and variable overnight tonight increasing once again by Sunday afternoon. A low to medium chance of showers and storms across the Victoria Crossroads tomorrow afternoon prompted the inclusion of a PROB30 groups for -SHRA from 12Z to 18Z and TSRA from 18Z to 24Z at VCT. Expect lowered CIGs, reduced VSBYs, and gustier winds in the vicinity of any storms. && .MARINE... Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) onshore flow with occasionally fresh (BF 5) breezes along the southern bays and nearshore waters will continue through the weekend. Rain chances will become low to medium (20-70%) late Sunday through early Tuesday afternoon before diminishing as a boundary moves south through the waters. The boundary passage will shift winds to the north and bring in drier air. Onshore flow will return by Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 78 95 77 92 / 0 20 20 60 Victoria 76 95 73 89 / 10 50 50 70 Laredo 78 104 78 99 / 0 0 10 50 Alice 75 99 76 94 / 0 10 20 60 Rockport 80 92 78 91 / 10 20 40 60 Cotulla 78 102 77 94 / 0 10 30 60 Kingsville 75 97 76 94 / 0 10 10 60 Navy Corpus 83 90 81 89 / 0 10 30 60 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LS/77 AVIATION...KRS/98