Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
005 FXUS64 KCRP 161111 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 611 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 608 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 - Moderate to Major Heat Risk through early this week - Coastal showers and storms possible Monday - Rain Chances increasing again late this week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1211 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 The evening convection that moved across South Texas is largely out of the area with a broken line moving through the coastal waters at this time. Meso models did a really poor job of handling this convection, never really catching onto it even as it was ongoing. This definitely gives concerns for what coastal convection for the clarity of convection for Monday along the coast. A mid-level shortwave approaches the Victoria Crossroads late in the night (after 3am) and some guidance is picking up on showers and storms developing with this toward morning. The energy associated with the wave stretches out along the coast, so could see isolated to scattered convection through the immediate Coastal Bend through the morning hours and possibly into the early afternoon before the wave kicks out. Once this shortwave moves out, the mid-level ridge to our west should be in control for a couple of days helping to bring some drier mid-level air into the region and decreasing PWAT values. Expect mainly dry conditions Tuesday and Wednesday as a result, though an isolated shallow streamer shower in the morning is not out of the question. Above normal temperatures and heat index values between 105 and 110 are anticipated Monday through Wednesday. Later in the week we`ll be focusing on tropical moisture approaching the Texas Coast. Not much has changed with the expectation of this wave, with the best chances for heavy rain remaining south of our area, but expect an increase in cloud cover and medium chances for showers and storms Thursday through Saturday with the highest chances in the Coastal Plains. As a result of this increased moisture, expect temperatures to fall back a few degrees and could even be slightly below normal. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 608 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Scattered showers and thunderstorms from this morning are mainly affecting KALI/KCRP with light thunderstorms activity through 14Z or so, followed by a PROB30 group after sunrise for later convection (KVCT). By this evening, convective storms diminish and flight categories return to VFR/MVFR through Tuesday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 1211 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 A gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) onshore breeze will persist through the first half of the week with a slight increase to moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) Wednesday, before subsiding a bit late week. Daily rain chances remain mostly low (20-30%) early this week. Increasing up to moderate to high chances for the later part of the week and into the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 92 78 94 79 / 20 0 0 0 Victoria 90 75 91 76 / 20 0 10 0 Laredo 102 78 102 77 / 10 10 0 0 Alice 97 75 98 76 / 10 0 0 0 Rockport 90 81 90 81 / 30 0 10 0 Cotulla 101 78 103 77 / 10 10 0 0 Kingsville 95 76 97 77 / 10 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 89 81 89 81 / 20 0 10 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PH/83 AVIATION...AE/82