971
FXUS61 KCTP 040829
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
429 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Minor changes to trim POPS and very light amounts of rain
  across the Central and Western Mtns of PA today, and bump up
  POPS for LER showers to 15-20 pct across the NW Mtns Monday
  afternoon and night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Frost/freeze conditions are probable Monday night and
Tuesday night

2) Little to no rainfall forecast through Saturday, October
10th

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Frost/freeze conditions are probable Monday night
and Tuesday night

The coldest air of the early Autumn season will push southeast
into Central PA early in the upcoming week with frost/freeze
conditions expected Monday night and Tuesday night over at least
the NW half of the CWA, with min temps around the freezing mark
across the Northern Tier counties of PA.

-------------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Little to no rainfall forecast through Saturday,
October 10th

Increasingly moist low-level southeasterly flow will bring
thickening/low clouds and a few periods of very light
rain/drizzle to areas along and east of the Allegheny Front and
south of Interstate 80 today into this evening.

Total rainfall is expected to be just a few to several hundredths
of an inch in most places that see rain today, with an outside
shot at up to 0.10 of an inch across portions of the Lower Susq
Valley, NE along the I-81 corridor (across the higher terrain
of Schuylkill County where llvl upslope flow will be maximized).
This will be the only precip for the next 7 days.

A secondary cold front followed by colder WNW flow could bring
a couple of showers downwind of Lake Erie tonight into early
Monday as lake/850 mb delta Ts will be 18-19 deg C.

A subtle subsidence inversion based at 7-9 KFT AGL Monday and
more notable inversion based at 5-6 kft agl Monday night,
relatively short fetch over Lake Erie and the lack of very cold
air aloft with cloud top temps of 0 to -5C will lead Lake-
Induced CAPE of up to 500 J/KG Monday and 300-400 J/KG Monday
night/Tue Morning. This will bring some thin/meandering bands
of SHRA that will extend into our NW zones at times.

Otherwise, we continue to have high confidence in a prolonged
dry stretch through next week as a large area of Canadian high
pressure dominates the pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Return southeasterly flow the remainder of tonight into today
will bring in low level southerly moisture capable of low
ceilings todays with some sprinkles of rain too. This moisture
advection has the potential for early morning 10Z-12Z MVFR
ceiling drops at sites like AOO and JST, whereas most other
sites see drops closer to the 12Z dawn timeframe.

Restrictions are likely to remain throughout Sunday with
southern terminals most likely to see drizzly/misty conditions
that may lower surface visibility. A weaker upper level forcing
mechanism and unimpressive PWATs should preclude a heavier rain
threat. Low clouds with widespread MVFR/IFR restrictions are
likely until a cold front passes through late Sunday night/early
Monday morning with drier air filtering behind it.

Outlook...

Mon-Thu. VFR prevailing. Brief restrictions possible in late
night and early morning fog.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Lambrech