022
FXUS61 KCTP 300831
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
431 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Increase POPs into the likely category through the Mid
  Morning across Sullivan County PA.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A few bands of mainly light rain showers will occur across
the North-central Mountains, Middle Susq Valley and Western
Poconos today as low pressure moves slowly along the southern
New England coast. Otherwise, expect a drying trend to wrap up
the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A few bands of mainly light rain showers will
occur across the North-central Mountains, Middle Susq Valley
and Western Poconos today as low pressure moves slowly along the
southern New England coast. Otherwise, expect a drying trend to
wrap up the week.

Another, relatively weak and compact. mid-upr level vort max (or
two) will be moving south across the eastern part of the CWA
today - on the back side of a slowly departing mid/upper level
low. These features will bring a few relatively narrow bands of
light to briefly mdt rain showers (and perhaps a low-topped tsra
this afternoon) to our far eastern CWA - East of a KIPT to KMUI
line.

Across the remainder of Central PA and the Western Alleghenies,
a northerly 850 mb flow (~25 kft) with temps averaging around
+13C will be slightly under the threshold for Lake Effect
clouds/showers, considering Lake Ontario and Lake Erie temps in
the low to mid 70s. So, cloud cover in this part of the state
should be flat and scattered.

Expect dry conditions for Friday and Saturday with sfc dewpoints
sliding by a few deg F. Chances for showers and thunderstorms
increase Saturday night into Sunday ahead of an approaching
shortwave, but there are still timing differences regarding this
feature.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The cloud deck over the region continues to persist as the upper
low moves over southern New England. VFR is expected to prevail
through daybreak for all terminals. Fog potential overall looks
fairly minimal. After 12Z Thursday, HREF model guidance
outlines an increasing 3000-5000ft AGL cloud deck that will
bring some lower end (< 30%) potential for MVFR ceilings
primarily across eastern airfields (IPT, MDT, LNS), but
predominantly VFR conds is the more likely outcome. Low clouds
will begin to dissipate tonight as drier air moves in and the
upper low moves to the east.

Outlook...

Fri...Patchy AM fog possible, otherwise mainly VFR.

Sat...Mainly VFR early with increasing chances of SHRA/TSRA
later in the evening hours. Restrictions possible.

Sun...More widespread SHRA with PM TSRA possible, increased
chances of restrictions in heavier SHRA/TSRA.

Mon...AM SHRA with PM TSRA possible. Restrictions possible,
especially SE where chances for SHRA/TSRA are higher.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily maximum rainfall records were set at Johnstown and
Bradford on Tuesday, Jul 28.

JST: 1.63 inches of rain broke the record of 1.41 inches set in
1923.

BFD: 3.89 inches of rain broke the record of 2.50 inches set in
1981.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Evanego
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Evanego
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Evanego
AVIATION...Colbert/Bowen
CLIMATE...Colbert