666
FXUS61 KCTP 291728
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
128 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Increased cloud cover for the rest of today and tonight and
  expanded slight chance PoPs farther to the west for this
  afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Isolated to scattered diurnal showers are possible, mainly
across the Northeastern 1/4 of the CWA today/tonight as a
deepening surface/upper level low moves slowly over the Southern
New England Coast. Otherwise, drying trend to wrap up the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Isolated to scattered diurnal showers are
expected will occur across the Northeastern 1/4 of the CWA
today/tonight as a deepening surface/upper level low moves
slowly over the Southern New England Coast. Otherwise, drying
trend to wrap up the week.

Northwest flow/wraparound moisture rotating around the western
side of a deepening trough and slow moving sfc/upper low will
continue to promote the development of stratocu across much of
the region. A vort max pivoting through the western edge of the
upper low will cross the region this afternoon and evening
which should help to trigger a few showers over northeast PA.
High temps today will vary from the upper 60s across the
Northern Mtns to the low 80s in the Southeast.

The upper low begins to move off to the east tomorrow, though a
few showers may linger through the first half of the day.
Expect drier conditions for Friday and Saturday. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms increase Saturday night through Sunday
ahead of an approaching shortwave, but there are still
considerable differences regarding the timing of this feature.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Stratocu has developed across the northern mountains and Laurel
Highlands, with MVFR to IFR cigs at JST and BFD, and MVFR cigs
at IPT and likely soon at UNV. These clouds along with NW winds
of 5-10 kts will likely prevent much fog from developing over
the western half of the central Pennsylvania airspace. However,
patchy fog has developed across the east, including at LNS. Any
fog will dissipate by 13z.

A SCT to BKN cu/stratocu layer will likely develop today
beneath the upper low. Isolated showers are possible in the
northeast. NW wind gusts will approach 20-25KTS during the
afternoon.

Outlook...

Thu...Improving conditions with lingering -SHRA. Patchy AM fog.

Fri...Mainly VFR.

Sat and Sun...Patchy AM fog. Restrictions possible in isolated
showers/storms mainly in the south.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily maximum rainfall records were set at Johnstown and
Bradford on Tuesday, Jul 28.

JST: 1.63 inches of rain broke the record of 1.41 inches set in
1923.

BFD: 3.89 inches of rain broke the record of 2.50 inches set in
1981.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Bauco
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Bauco
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Bauco
AVIATION...Colbert/Bowen
CLIMATE...Colbert