417
FXUS61 KCTP 031120
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
720 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Sunny and dry for Wednesday.
* The next widespread chance for showers comes Thursday with a
  cold front.
* More showers and storms are possible on Saturday with strong
  cold front.
* Dry and cooler weather to start the next week off.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure over the area will keep it sunny and dry with light
winds again today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
Southerly flow begins to increase tonight as the sfc pres
gradient tightens in advance of a cold front approaching from
the west. The moisture plume at our latitude seems to stay near
to the front and dewpoints don`t rise above 60F over central PA
(even over western PA) until after 12Z Thu. Thus POPS for PoPs
for Wed night are low, highest being toward the far west late.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Main chance for any showers and storms will be on Thursday.
Best dynamics lift northeast of the area, and dewpoints not
real high, better west of the mtns, thus QPF a bit lower now.

Marginal from SPC, main issue is gusty winds.

Secondary cold front for Saturday will usher in much colder
temperatures again by later in the weekend.

Next chance of showers after this is toward next Wed.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Fairly widespread valley fog has formed across Central PA this
morning, but it has largely stayed away from the TAF sites.
Very brief visibility restrictions will be possible through 14Z
before the fog dissipates, giving way to VFR conditions with
mainly clear skies and light southerly winds.

High clouds will increase overnight ahead of an approaching cold
front and will gradually thicken across northwest PA into the
early morning. All TAF sites are expected to remain VFR through
12Z, though. Similarly, rain should stay west of BFD and JST
until after 12Z.

Outlook...

Thu...Widespread SHRA/TSRA ahead of a cold front.

Fri...Showers lingering, mainly across the east.

Sat...Chance of SHRA with TSRA possible.

Sun...Clearing, breezy.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Martin/Gartner
SHORT TERM...Martin/Gartner
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...Bauco