457
FXUS61 KCTP 102102
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
502 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* SVR Watches are done.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Thunderstorms winding down this afternoon. Additional storms
are expected into the evening, but will be much less trouble.

2) Humid with rounds of heavy showers and strong thunderstorms
focused over southwest Pennsylvania through midweek

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Thunderstorms winding down this afternoon.
Additional storms are expected into the evening, but will be
much less trouble.

Just a couple of showers across Clinton and Lycoming Counties at
5 PM, and while they have lost their lightning, they are
spinning and one has split into two. So, we`ll continue to keep
an eye on them. Most of the showers and a few storms will stay
over the western third of the state for the rest of the night.
Just an isolated SHRA/TSRA is expected elsewhere.

Previous...

MCS moving off to our E at 4 PM. Only a few of the SE Counties
are left in the watch, as they still have some potential left
for severe wx. Some instability remains across the rest of the
CWA. But, that is of no concern for severe wx. Can`t rule out a
heavy downpour out of one of these stragglers or something that
may develop this evening. But, the overall threats for SVR and
FF are very low.

-----------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Humid with rounds of heavy showers and strong
thunderstorms focused over southwest Pennsylvania through
midweek

Model trends are focusing primary risk for severe storms and
heavy rain across southwest PA on Tuesday. This area lies
closest to the equatorward edge of the westerlies within very
moist instability gradient. SPC and WPC have outlooked this
area (SW PA) with a a level 2/5 severe storm risk and 2/4
excessive rain risk.

Rounds of showers and storms remain possible through midweek.
Multiple shortwave disturbances will traverse the northern tier
and interact with a slow moving frontal zone. The combination
of rich low level moisture, instability and repeated forcing
along the boundary will support some potential for periodic
clusters of storms with locally heavy rainfall. WPC excessive
rain outlooks (EROs) have shifted farther to the south/west and
only clip the far southwest portion of the CWA on days 3-5 or
Wed-Fri.

The end of the week into the start of the weekend looks less
humid (more refreshing) as push of relatively cooler and drier
air accompanies seasonably strong/Canadian high pressure
building southeast from the Upper Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Last of the convection is exiting the southeast corner of the
forecast area late this afternoon. There will be some lingering
-SHRA for a few hours this evening.

Conditions will waffle between MVFR and VFR this evening through
the overnight hours as low level moisture remains over the
area. Patchy -RA is possible over the higher elevation airfields
through the morning hours.

MVFR conditions continue toward the end of the forecast period
with an improvement to VFR in all locations by the tail end of
the forecast.

Outlook...

Mon-Thu...Scattered showers/storms. Restrictions possible.

Fri...Mainly VFR. A few showers or storms possible over
southwestern PA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Dangelo/Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Dangelo/Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Dangelo/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Tyburski