270
FXUS61 KCTP 301731
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
131 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Increased sky cover and trimmed dewpoints for rest of today
* Added chance of heavy rain for Sunday in level 2/4 WPC ERO

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Comfortable and dry to end July
2) Rain most likely Sunday with increased risk of flooding
downpours

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Comfortable and dry to end July
Refreshing northerly breeze and uptick in daytime stratocu
providing another Fall-ish type day for late July across CPA.
Still can`t rule out a brief and negligible shower/sprinkle
rotating around the backside of the departing upper level low
across the eastern periphery of the CWA; however the majority of
the area will hold onto dry weather to close out the month.

Clearing skies expected tonight with decreasing wind as high
pressure slides eastward from the Ohio Valley. Areas of fog are
likely to develop in the valleys across the west-central
Alleghenies with min temps in the 50-60F range into early
Friday morning. Comfortably warm and dry end to July on Friday
with a mix of sun and clouds and max temps in the low to mid
80s.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Rain most likely Sunday with increased risk of
flooding downpours

An axis of anomalous PW ~1.5" along and ahead of an approaching
cold front combined with favorable upper dynamics should support
active convection reaching CPA as early as late Saturday night
with max POPs centered on the 24hr Sunday window. With some
potential for training in the moist low level SW flow parallel
to the front and increased vulnerability given recent very heavy
rainfall, WPC introduced a level 2/4 excessive rain outlook
(ERO) that covers much of north central PA. Exact timing and
placement of max QPF remains a bit unclear as there is still
some model differences regarding the evolution of the upper
trough.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Few changes for the 18Z TAF from the previous discussion. 6SM
BR VCFG was maintained at KIPT/KLNS where slightly better
chances (20-30% probability on the HREF/REFS ensembles) for
valley fog seem to be be (Td around 15C closer to the low
pressure system off the coast vs. Td around 10C farther west
where dry continental air is filtering in). Otherwise, winds
will trend light/variable tonight, with W-NW winds of around 5
kts & mainly sunny skies during the daytime Friday.

Previous discussion: the cloud deck over the region continues
to persist as the upper low moves over southern New England. VFR
is expected to prevail through daybreak for all terminals. Fog
potential overall looks fairly minimal. After 12Z Thursday, HREF
model guidance outlines an increasing 3000-5000ft AGL cloud
deck that will bring some lower end (< 30%) potential for MVFR
ceilings primarily across eastern airfields (IPT, MDT, LNS), but
predominantly VFR conds is the more likely outcome. Low clouds
will begin to dissipate tonight as drier air moves in and the
upper low moves to the east.

Outlook...

Sat...Mainly VFR early with increasing chances of SHRA/TSRA
later in the evening hours. Restrictions possible.

Sun...More widespread SHRA with PM TSRA possible, increased
chances of restrictions in heavier SHRA/TSRA.

Mon...AM SHRA with PM TSRA possible. Restrictions possible,
especially SE where chances for SHRA/TSRA are higher.

Tue...Upper-lvl low over the Ohio Valley may bring SHRA/TSRA
with possible restrictions to the Commonwealth, though lower
confidence in SHRA/TSRA compared to previous days.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Here are a few key callouts to wrap up the month of July:

6th wettest at Altoona
2nd wettest at Bradford
10th wettest at State College

6th most # of days with maxT >=100F at Harrisburg (3)
T3rd most# of days with maxT >=100F at Williamsport (2)

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Colbert/Bowen/Teare
CLIMATE...Steinbugl