085
FXUS61 KCTP 280039
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
839 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Level 2/5 severe t-storm risk shifted to the west out of Warren
County for day one.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and heavy
rainfall remain possible on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Since sunrise earlier today, there has been isolated showers
and storms, mainly across the high terrain. High clouds and
smoke at high levels has took the edge off the heating some
earlier today.

Expect activity to weaken over the next few hours. The cold
front is still well to the north and west. Best area for storms
to fire up late is well to the west of central PA, as noted by
SPC day one outlk.

KEY MESSAGE 1: Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds
and heavy rainfall remain possible on Tuesday.

Complex pattern for the next few days. As been the case since
early Spring, models close off the low by later Wed. A winter
like pattern. Also one that supports heavy rain not too far
from our CWA.

Before this time, models such as the 12Z NAM drop the activity
to the south of our area on Tuesday. Short range models show
a lot of variation. Anything forming to our west late tonight
would likely have to drop more to the south, then to the east
or northeast.

More information below.

Timing and placement uncertainty grows heading into tonight
with continued CAM variability concerning downstream
development/propagation of Great Lakes/Ohio Valley MCS activity.
The main shortwave does appear to reach CPA by Tuesday morning.
The decaying? MCS or related feature and associated cloud cover
could dampen severe risk into the afternoon. Hires guidance
seems to suggest an eastward shift in the greatest svr/FF risk
as the trough deepens over the northern Mid Atlantic. Some heavy
rain potential will linger into Wednesday as the slow moving
upper low pivots from northeast PA toward southern New England.
Storm totals could exceed 2-3 over some parts of the northeast
CWA by Thursday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Complex set of TAFs for the 00Z issuance, with spotty SHRA/TSRA
increasing in coverage from west to east this evening & into
the overnight hours, followed by a swath of more numerous
SHRA/TSRA alongside lowering cloud ceilings as a surface low
moves across the region during the morning & afternoon, with
gradual improvements behind the low pressure center despite
spotty SHRA/TSRA and lingering low clouds bringing the potential
for flight restrictions.

VFR is favored outside of any SHRA/TSRA this evening, with
convective activity trending more numerous overnight
(particularly north and west of KMDT/KLNS), suggesting that
flight restrictions to MVFR-IFR will become more
likely/persistent. A more defined cluster of showers and storms
associated with the low pressure center will move west to east
across our area between the early morning and late afternoon,
resulting in prevailing MVFR-IFR ceiling restrictions with
periodic MVFR-IFR visibility restrictions. Heating may be
sufficient for strong to severe thunderstorms across eastern
Pennsylvania (best chance at KMDT/KLNS), with gusty/damaging
winds being the primary threat.

Behind the low pressure center, showers/storms will become more
widely scattered with gradual improvements to ceiling
restrictions, though confidence is low regarding the extent of
prevailing VFR across our terminals during the latter half of
the TAF period.

Outlook...

Wed-Fri...Improving conditions into late week with lingering
-SHRA. Patchy AM fog.

Sat...Restrictions possible as chances increase for showers and
perhaps some thunderstorms. Patchy AM fog.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl/Martin
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl/Martin
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl/Martin
AVIATION...Teare