118
FXUS61 KCTP 141729
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
129 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Remaining generally cloudy and humid with below normal daytime
  temperatures today through Monday. Periods of showers and
  locally heavy downpours for today and tonight.
* A strong warmup for Wednesday and Thursday with daytime highs
  several degrees above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Interesting setup across Central PA (near and just south of the
I-80 corridor (for about the the next 18 hours) in the form of
a quasi stnry frontal boundary a few to several KFT AGL. The
band of moderate to heavy rain that formed in an area of weak
convergence in this area has started showing signs of weakening
this morning. Instantaneous precip rates were as high as 4
inches per hour around 8 am, but these have decreased to less
than 2 inches per hour as of 10 am. This band has been producing
1-2 inches of rainfall, but it has had enough of a
northeastward component to its motion to prevent any flooding
concerns. A Flood Watch remains in effect for this region
through 4 pm though as heavier rainfall could develop once
again.

Another area of moderate to heavy rain associated with the best
upper level forcing is entering northwest PA. Upstream
observations indicate the potential for this to produce and inch
or two of rainfall over Warren and McKean counties.

As the best forcing associated with the upper trough moves away
from the region this afternoon, the focus for heavy rainfall
will shift to southwest PA. Recent hires guidance suggests that
anywhere from 1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE could develop this
afternoon as higher dew point air works its way in from the
southwest and a few breaks in the clouds develop. This should
allow for showers and thunderstorms to develop in an environment
characterized by PWATs in the 1.6-1.8 range, warm cloud depths
of over 12000 feet, and weak shear. Any thunderstorms that form
in this environment will have very heavy rainfall rates and may
produce a quick 1-2 inches of rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The elevated frontal boundary will pivot to more of a
NW - SE orientation for tonight and Sunday, and become more
diffuse, which should lead to lower precip rates from less
widespread showers.

Rainfall amounts in the 00-12Z Sunday period should be under
0.25 inch for most places.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
There is a daily chc of showers/storms through much of next week,
with the peak each day occurring during the afternoon/evening
hours. However, the week ahead will not be a complete wash out,
and there will be periods of dry weather mixed in.

Low-level southeasterly flow will keep temperatures relatively
cool on Monday, but the sfc flow will become more southerly on
Tuesday and southwesterly by Wed, allowing for a warming trend
through midweek. It will become fairly muggy as well, and heat
indices could top 90 degrees across the Lower Susq Valley Wed
and Thu aftn.

A cold front is progged to cross the region on Thursday,
accompanied by a higher PoPs and a better chc of
showers/storms. Decreasing PoPs and lower humidity are expected
behind this front to end the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Widespread restrictions will continue throughout the TAF period
with periods of rain, reduced ceilings, and reduced vsbys.

Low-MVFR to IFR conds will be widespread this afternoon, with
periods of rain and possibly a few afternoon t-storms across the
southwest (JST/AOO). Confidence in storms is not high enough to
mention in TAFs, but the potential is there. A light easterly
flow (~5 kts) is expected for much of the region, although JST
may break into a light southwesterly flow.

Shower activity will diminish overnight. Low cigs will persist,
however, while cooling temperatures and plentiful low-level
moisture could lead to the development of fog tonight into
early Sunday.

Conditions will be very slow to improve on Sunday, with IFR
cigs persisting through at least midday areawide.

Outlook...

Mon-Wed...Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms, peaking
during the afternoon/evening hours each day.

Thu...A better chc of more numerous showers and storms with a
cold frontal passage.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 6 PM EDT this evening for PAZ010>012-017>019-
045-046-049>053.
Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for PAZ024>026-
033>035.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Bauco
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Evanego
AVIATION...Evanego