292
FXUS61 KCTP 290123
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
923 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Added daily high temperature records for October 29th

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain-free and mild conditions through the end of October

2) Fire weather concerns increasing by Friday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Rain-free and mild conditions through the end of
October

Latest model guidance indicates the lengthy dry spell will last
through Halloween and probably into the first few days of
November. There appears to be a modest multi-model/ensemble
signal building toward the possibility of a frontal type heavy
rain/wind event sometime during the second half of next week
around the Nov. 5-7th timeframe.

In the meantime, early morning fog/low clouds give way to a very
warm afternoon Thursday with max temps challenging daily records
in some locations (+10-20 degrees above the historical average).

October 29th also marks two historic weather events to impact
central Pennsylvania in the past 15 years: Sandy in 2012 and the
Snowstorm in 2011.

-------------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Fire weather concerns increasing by Friday

It has been almost two weeks since we`ve received any measurable
rainfall across Central PA. The combination of drying fuels,
increasing leaf litter, and low humidity air could result in an
elevated risk of wildfire spread Friday and Saturday. Friday
will be breezy in the wake of a cold front with marginally low
afternoon RH values and max gusts forecast in the 20-25 mph
range. PA Bureau of Forestry partners have indicated fuels are
now sufficiently dry to support the issuance of a wildfire
spread statement /if needed/ for Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
All TAF sites were VFR as of 00z Thu, with high clouds peeling
away to the east. Hires guidance and the LAMP remain in good
agreement that light SE flow overnight will bring moisture up
from the Atlantic Coast through the Chesapeake and Delaware
Bays and result in MVFR to LIFR fog and low clouds late tonight
into early Thursday morning across the eastern airfields (IPT,
MDT, LNS) with at least 50 percent confidence, and 20-40 pct
confidence at AOO and UNV. Most guidance maintains VFR conds at
BFD and JST, though there could be some fog and low stratus in
the vicinity even that far west.

Conditions will trend sunnier/VFR through the day on Thursday,
although low clouds look to hold on until the early afternoon
along and east of the Susq River. Winds will be from the SW at
5-10 kts Thu afternoon. An approaching cold front will bring
clouds and a few light rain showers across the NW after 00z Fri
with restrictions possible in the north and west into early Fri
morning. A period of LLWS is also possible between 00z and 09z
Fri ahead of the cold front.

Outlook...

Fri...A.M. IFR-MVFR ceilings mostly north/west; bcmg VFR.

Sat-Sun...VFR most likely prevailing with some A.M. low cloud
or fog restrictions possible.

Mon...Slight chnc for rain and restrictions, mostly west;
otherwise VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Steinbugl/Colbert