373
FXUS61 KCTP 081925
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
225 PM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Complicated storm system moves through Sunday and brings much
  colder air Sunday night.
* Light snow accumulation starts Sunday night in the Alleghenies
  and Laurel Highlands
* Lake effect snow Mon and Tues, moderate accums possible far NW
* A dynamic jet pattern keeps unsettled conditions around through
  the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Some vertical development to the cu out the window (near
AOO and UNV), so there could be a stray SHRA this aftn/evening
for the central mtns. But, by and large, not worth a PoP >15
pct. We do have a 15-30 PoP for the middle Susq and Poconos
this evening. There are small things coming off the lake, still,
and a little light rain may drop from a higher deck tonight, so
a small PoP is in order there. However, the main forcing and
rain doesn`t arrive until late tonight or in the morning. There
will be some clear sky in the S tonight. Some fog is possible in
cooler spots there. Min temps range from the m30s-m40s. Could
be bust potential in the SE as wind does go light.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure over OH on Sun AM will be driven directly across
the CWA in the daylight hours. The rain will not be a big
shield, but more a few patches of showers. Lightest QPF over the
Laurels and highest in the far NW and Poconos (with some SErly
flow/upslope help). After the rain moves thru the NW, cold air
is dragged in from the NW. The temp profile gets cold enough to
be plain snow before midnight in BFD, and well before sunrise
throughout the Allegheny Plateau and Laurel Highlands. QPF
Sunday night will not be enough to make more than an inch of
snow accums anywhere in the CWA. The ground will be warm
initially Sun evening. But, it will get cold enough for accums,
even on the roads, before sunrise. Maxes Sun will be very mild
in the SE (10F above normal) and 2-3F above normal in the NW.
The strong cold advection Sun night will drop the temps into the
m20s in the NW, sub freezing NW half and 35-40F in the SE half.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Reinforcing cold fronts after Sunday will usher in the coldest
air so far this season early next week through Veteran`s Day.
Deep troughing will be carved out over the Eastern U.S.
resulting in a very favorable NW flow pattern setup for the
first widespread lake effect and orographically enhanced snow
accumulation. Max temps will be 10 to 20 degrees below the
historical average Mon- Tue with wind chills in the teens and
20s. Wind chills likely don`t rise above the 20s and 30s at all
on Monday or Tuesday afternoon.

Accumulating snowfall is favored across the typical northwest
mountains lake effect region and Laurel Highlands upslope snow
region. Current ensemble guidance indicates plowable snowfall
(2"+) is favored in the northwest mountains downwind of Lake
Erie. Antecedent warm ground temperatures should limit
accumulation at onset. East of I-99 and south of I-80, snow
showers are possible but accumulating snowfall is less likely at
this juncture.

The cold December-like air does not last long and is forecast
to retreat by the middle of next week with temperatures
returning to near seasonal averages into late week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR now for all but BFD. They will likely stay MVFR for the
majority of the time this evening. Cigs should start to lower in
the middle of the night. Forcing for SHRA does not reach them
until morning, though. Will hold off mentioning precip with a
reduction to vis until after 12Z there. However, some vertical
development to the clouds over the central mtns (near UNV/AOO)
now may be a sign that some light/isold SHRA will try to form
for the central mtns and middle susq this aftn and evening. Many
models hint at some precip for the middle Susq and Poconos
between 00-05Z. So, we`ve put a mention in IPT TAF for that time
frame. These should move quickly NE of the area. We`ll just see
the cigs lower then throughout the night. Will also keep
mentions of rain out for the rest of the terminals for much of
the 18Z TAF package - thru 15Z. A disjointed pattern will keep
the precip from being a large stratiform area, and probably more
like several patches of showers. Some fog is possible in the SE
where skies will be partly cloudy (just mid/high clouds) for
the night. Hinted at IFR in LNS and IPT before sunrise, but
remove it at 12Z. IPT mainly due to their poss of rain early in
the night and then poss clearing/breaks in the clouds. Wind will
remain light even as the sfc low nears from the west overnight.
The sfc low passes over Central PA on Sunday, and starts to
drag much colder air down from the NW (across the lakes) in mid-
day/early aftn. The temp profile gets cold enough to be plain
snow before midnight in BFD, and well before sunrise throughout
the Allegheny Plateau and Laurel Highlands (FIG/JST). It will
try to turn to snow just before the bulk of the moisture leaves
AOO, UNV and IPT. The temps stay cold enough for Mon and Tues to
generate lake effect snow for BFD and JST. Expect IFR at times
there. AOO-UNV-IPT will be on the edge for any measurable snow.
A couple of dips to IFR are poss at those 3 sites on Mon and
Tues. But, temps should rise in the middle of those days to turn
the precip to rain before it would hit the ground at those
terminals.

Outlook...

Wed-Thur...Slightly milder, but blustery with MVFR/IFR
conditions in lake effect/upslope snow (rain mid-day) at
KBFD/KJST. MVFR to low VFR cigs elsewhere. Sfc wind gusts
20-30kts from 260-290 degrees (mainly during the day).

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Bowen
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Gartner/Bowen
AVIATION...Dangelo