855
FXUS63 KDDC 050701
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
201 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong storms possible tonight along a cold front

- Cooler Monday

- Continued showery Tuesday morning followed by even cooler temps

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Early morning surface observations show a front moving across Wyoming.
This front will eventually traverse across the state of Kansas later
tonight. In the meantime, downslope SSW flow ahead of the front will
result in a rather warm day today with highs in the upper 80s. Dewpoints
are currently running in the 50s and are expected to continue to
do so through the day. The combination of the heat and humidity will
result in CAPE values increasing to around 1000 J/kg along and ahead
of the front. Bulk shear is forecast to be around 40 kt. The combination
of the instability and shear will lead to the potential for strong
storms this evening along the boundary. The main threats are hail
up to 1" and 50 to 60 mph winds. Tornadoes are not expected today.
The best convergence along the boundary is forecast to be from Dodge
City northeast to Hays, Kansas. Have kept the highest pops in this
area to account for this forecast scenario. SPC does have us in a
marginal (risk level 1 out of 5) for a portion of the state, and
this looks to be on track with the latest 00Z NWP data.

The front will sag southward through the overnight hours tonight.
Pattern recognition and the fact that it is October would suggest
going with a cooler solution. Did sharpen up the temperature
gradient for Monday as a cooler solution would make more sense.
An upper level wave will eventually move across the greater region
Tuesday morning. An overrunning situation should develop with the
formation of showers across southwest Kansas Tuesday morning. Highs
Tuesday will continue to trend downward with values only in the 60s.
Normal highs this time of year are in the mid 70s. Lows will also
trend cooler with 40s likely Tuesday morning and then a mix of 40s
to 50s for Wednesday morning. Fall is here.

Long term models indicate shortwave ridging midweek. This would support
the notion of a drier forecast and moderating temperatures. Highs
by Thursday should be back to being above normal with values in the
80s for highs and 50s for lows. More the same weather pattern is
expected next weekend with a continue warm and dry weather pattern
prevailing.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

A 50 kt LLJ will lead to LLWS across the terminal through the morning
hours. Winds will remain strong today and will be from the SSE to
SSW around 20 kt with gusts around 30 kt. Have inserted PROB30 for
TSRA for both KDDC and KHYS this evening. A front will sag southward
and storms should develop off it. There will be a fropa late this
evening, but this is near the end of the TAF pd. VFR conditions should
prevail.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden