743
FXUS63 KDDC 151028
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
528 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strongest cold front of the young Autumn season due in today
  as winds shift to the northeast and increase to 15 to 25 mph,
  gusting to 35 mph at times.

- Temperatures will top out to their highs late morning/midday
  most areas 70s to lower 80s with temps slowly falling in the
  afternoon.

- The exception to the above bullet will be the south central
  Kansas counties, as they will remain ahead of the front
  through afternoon -- highs in the mid to upper 90s (100 not
  out of the question Hardtner/Kiowa areas of Barber County).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

The last of evening/late night showers and thunderstorms were moving
across southwest Kansas along roughly Ness City to Dodge City to
Meade line shortly before 06Z. The remnant shower/thunderstorm
activity will eventually dissolve all together overnight, and the
focus will shift more toward the strong cold front later today.

On the midnight CDT analysis, observations were showing northerly
winds approaching the far northwest corner of northwestern Kansas,
but the noticeably cooler air was still up in northwestern Nebraska
in the Sandhills where temperatures had fallen into the lower to mid
50s (51F at Chadron, NE). As the vigorous storm system up north
continues to pull away from the Northern Plains, the low level cold
air advection will increase and expand quickly south today.
Temperatures, low cloud cover, and precipitation chances will all be
challenges in the forecast today with the first true shot of Autumn
air into southwestern Kansas. Given the magnitude of cooler air up
north and latest models coming into better alignment, we have
trended cooler with the official forecast -- going lower than the
baseline NBM, incorporating some CONSShort weight which has a better
handle on the upstream temperatures and better representation of
hourly temperature trends with the cold air advection and low cloud
cover preventing a normal diurnal temperature curve. Expect
temperatures to hold steady or fall during the afternoon with most
areas in the 60s to lower 70s by late afternoon north of a Hugoton
to Dodge City Kinsley line.

Even though the surface front will be pushing south, the frontal
zone around 5 kft will remain quasi-stationary across southwest
Kansas with respectable dewpoints of +14 to +16C at that ~5 kft
level (850mb). Southwest Kansas will also be well within the
northwestern periphery of a still fairly coherent North American
Monsoon circulation which as not been disrupted as of yet in this
pattern (mainly thanks to a persistent subtropical high of 597
decameters at 500mb centered over the southeastern CONUS. POPs will
remain fairly high as a result through Tuesday Night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 526 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through
early afternoon. Low level stratus is then forecast to develop along
and behind a cold front advancing southeast through southwest Kansas
and central Kansas this afternoon into this evening. As a result,
MVFR cigs are expected spread southeastward, affecting the vicinity
of KHYS and KGCK generally after 20-22Z and KDDC and KLBL later this
evening. North-northeast winds 15 to 25kt with gusts up to 30kt are
expected to develop behind the aforementioned cold front as it moves
through southwest/central Kansas this afternoon into the evening.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...JJohnson