490
FXUS63 KDDC 302003
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
203 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- First accumulating snow of the season for parts of southwest
Kansas on Monday

- Total accumulations will range from around 1 inch to as much
  as 3 inches

- Winter weather impacts should be minor however the timing of the
snow will likely coincide with the morning work/school commute


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025


20Z RAP and upper air analysis shows generally zonal flow with upper
level moisture streaming mid to high level cloudiness.  A digging
upper wave is nearing Salt Lake City.  At the surface a 1034 mb high
is leading to lighter northeast winds and strong CAA has kept
temperatures in the 20s throughout the morning and early afternoon.

Tonight into Monday morning the longwave trough will move from the
four corners region to western Kansas.  Ahead of the trough
increasing frontogenesis and lift in the dendritic growth zone
is forecast to start developing after 06Z in northwest Kansas
and quickly spread into north central through southwest Kansas
through sunrise. Short term models are fairly consistent with
timing and location of the strongest lift occurring between
12-18Z and for areas along and north of highway 50 with the
strongest lift near the K-96 and I-70 corridors. With the open
and progressive nature of the wave it should be a short lived
snow event as much of the snow should be wrapping up around noon
or shortly after. There will likely be mesoscale bands of
moderate snow at times which could produce snowfall rates of
~0.50 in/hr especially in our northeast zones. The snow should
be dry and powdery and winds are expected to be relatively light
so the main impacts will be some lowered visibility with the
heavier bands of snow and roads quickly becoming snow covered.
Given that the timeframe of the snow will be during the morning
work/school commutes a winter weather advisory is issued for
area along and north of a Pratt to Dodge City line. Totals will
range from up to an inch from Dodge City to Pratt (20-30% prob
of 1 inch or more) to as much as 2-3 inches along and north of a
WaKeeney to Larned line (25-40% probability of greater than 2
inches). By Monday afternoon with NVA and subsidence we will
probably see skies clear out quickly from west to east.

After Monday the weather turns fairly quiet with LREF upper air
patterns showing generally northwest flow.  Main highlights include
a cold front moving through Thursday morning but the brunt of the
colder air should be over the Great Lakes.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1118 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

A storm system will move into western Kansas during the
overnight through the mid morning hours and will likely produce
pockets of light to moderate snow around DDC and HYS between
12-18Z. Surface vis may fall to as low as 1 SM at HYS with
flight categories dropping to IFR between 12-18Z. Elsewhere GCK
and DDC are expected to have flight categories drop to MVFR with
the light snow and we could see surface vis drop to 2-4 SM at
times between 12-15Z with the snow. LBL should see little to no
snow and as such expect VFR category for the entire period.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST
Monday for KSZ030-031-045-046-064>066-078>081.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Tatro