129
FXUS63 KDDC 121019
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
519 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A strong cold front Sunday evening will be followed by much cooler
air on Monday

- Improving rain chances Monday night through Tuesday morning

- Warming again mid week with cool down possible late week into
  this weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

A significant chance on the weather is expected over the next 36
hours as an upper level shortwave sweeps through the Central and
Northern Plains by tonight. This will help push a surface cold front
through the area this evening shifting winds to the north to
northeast with ample cold air advection filtering into western
Kansas tonight into tomorrow.

Before this front arrives expect continued unseasonably warm to hot
weather today as SW KS remains in the warm sector ahead of the
front. Short range ensemble models are still on track for the cold
front to then arrive in our northern zones late this afternoon,
racing south through SW KS Sunday evening, exiting into Oklahoma by
late evening. SWly prefrontal downslope compression will send
temperatures soaring Sunday with highs in the upper 80s with a few
places possibly reaching around 90 degrees. Northeast winds will be
quite strong tonight as cold advection arrives in a warm mixed
boundary layer, and northeast winds will probably be stronger than
the NBM. Lows tonight will generally range from the upper 40s across
west central Kansas to low 60s across south central Kansas.

Clouds will increase tonight through tomorrow, as SWly midlevel flow
and warm air advection increase over the much cooler northeast winds
at the surface. Afternoon temperatures tomorrow will be dramatically
cooler, with 60s common. Some afternoon temperatures in the upper
50s may be possible where thick cloud cover limits insolation. Rain
chances will return tomorrow night through early Tuesday. Model
guidance agree on a relative max of rain probability early Tuesday
morning, and that is where the highest pops in the forecast will be.
Instability will be limited to nil, so only showers are expected
with little/no thunder.

Flow becomes much more amplified Tuesday, with a strong cutoff
midlevel cyclone over California, forcing the upper high to
strengthen over Texas. Mid term Ensemble models show strong south
winds returning through Wednesday, with another strong warming
trend. Afternoon temperatures will rebound back to the 80s by
wednesday with lows around 60 degrees. Much cooler air will arrive
again Friday through next weekend, but models are in disarray
regarding frontal timing and strength of cold advection.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 519 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the day with increasing
high level cloudiness. Winds will start out breezy from a
southelry direction through this afternoon then shift to a
northerly direction by this evening as a cold front moves
through the area.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42