171
FXUS63 KDDC 080800
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
300 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) for Saturday evening, as a larger
  thunderstorm complex likely to develop with severe wind gusts
  to 75 mph and a greater probability of 1"+ rainfall across
  much of southwest Kansas (30 to 50% chance from Scott City to
  Dodge City, Kinsley and Pratt - Ness City and Dighton).

- Shower and Thunderstorm chances continue, albeit lower, Sunday
  and Monday, but core of highest rainfall likely just south of
  southwest Kansas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 226 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Clouds will play a role in limiting or not how warm the
temperatures get afternoon. There is about a 5-6 deg F
difference between the 25th and 75th percentile for afternoon
highs a t any given location, (88 to 93 at Garden, 83 to 88 at
Hays and 94 to 100 degrees at Liberal for examples). Light north
winds I the morning will veer as warm advection develops to a
more easterly trajectory, aiding in spreading higher low 60s dew
points back westward to around Syracuse to Liberal.

The highest confidence severe and excessive rainfall event
looks poised to develop late this afternoon and evening as many
cams/hi-resolution model solutions have forecast an MCS for the
area. An are of shortwave vorticity at 500 mb is noted near
Great Salt Lake  and forecast by most models to lift advance
downstream to northeast Colorado kicking off convection in the
upslope deeply mixed high terrain environment in the afternoon.
Diurnal warming in the west and increasing surface dew points on
easterly upslope surface winds are leading to HREF mean Most
Unstable CAPE values in the 2000-2500 J/kg over a broad area
west of the highway 283 corridor. A few of the HREF cams members
were in great agreement of and MCS being driven from northeast
Colorado into west central Kansas between around 5 pm and 8 pm
CDT. Severe winds are the top risk while and hail also a threat.
Heavy rainfall may lead to some areas of flash flooding as the
HREF probability matches means paint an area of 1.5 to 2.5
rainfalls with a limited higher area to about 4 inches north of
the highway 400 corridor, in the 6 hour period ending at 1 am
CDT. The high res ensemble mean shows an an uptick to PWAT
values between 1.2 and 1.4 inches before the progressive MCS
moves through, meaning high rainfall rates can be expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 226 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Sunday starts a return to a southerly surface flow will likely
result in more sun and a general northerly shift in the axis of
60s dew points at the surface, with virtually no upper jet in
the immediate region. Any convection in this period would be
most favored farther south in the richer surface moisture of the
red river valley and anchored closer to a segment of the split
flow westerlies across central Texas. Temperatures resume the
summer-like 90s by midweek. The warmest day of the week is
Thursday where the NBM if forecasting widespread upper 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 107 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

A large MCS has exited the region into eastern Kansas leaving
some uncertainty overnight as to where some low stratus or fog
may develop and linger through the morning. Heavy rains will
in the HYS area, so that`s an areas we`ll monitor overnight for
potential fog development as the sky gradually shows some
clearing toward 12z. Liberal bears some attention as well,
however at this point the HREF mean favors reduced visibility
only across the northern and central Kansas areas, including
the HYS area.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell