334
FXUS63 KDDC 170511
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1111 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The long November dry spell will continue through Wednesday
  with mild, above normal temperatures.

- The first chance of rain in November arrives Thursday and
  Friday with scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Quiet weather is expected tonight. A weak LLJ will develop
overnight and keep southerly winds slightly elevated through
this period. This will lead to mild overnight lows with values
in the mid to upper 40s. For Monday, a weak frontal boundary
will move eastward across the state during the day. The main
impact from this will be a wind shift as there really is no
significant temperature advection associated with the front.
Highs tomorrow will range from the upper 60s in the north to the
mid 70s across the south. Given the warmth and the breezy
winds, there may be an elevated fire danger across far southwest
Kansas tomorrow. Red Flag conditions are not, however, a slam
dunk as afternoon relative humidities will only bottom out in
the 15% to 20% range.

More uneventful weather is expected Tuesday and Wednesday.
Light southerly winds will eventually return during this period
and highs should peak in the 60s. Lows in the mix of 30s to
40s. Attention then turns to Thursday and Friday... A large
upper level disturbance will approach the region from the west.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in association
with this synoptic disturbance. The highest pops are generally
located across the eastern zones. However, a deformation band
might form with rain expanding farther west. Something to watch
as the models continue to evolve and hopefully come to a better
consensus with time.

The system will exit the region Friday evening into Saturday.
The next weekend is looking fairly uneventful with no major
weather systems moving through. The net result is mild
temperatures and dry conditions to close out the long term
period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1111 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

VFR conditions will prevail throughout this TAF period. Winds
throughout the forecast period will remain breezy, generally
sustained around 15 knots with gusts 20-25 knots, especially
into Monday afternoon. Winds are expected to diminish into
Monday evening, around 10 knots or less after 00z. Winds will
shift from southerly tonight to westerly into Monday morning.
This shift will occur between 12-18z.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sugden
AVIATION...Bennett