


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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499 FXUS63 KDDC 150438 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1138 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated to strong south winds, and unseasonably warm afternoons, are expected Tuesday through Thursday. - Fantastic fall Friday, with mild temperatures and much less wind. - A weak dry cold front brings minor cooling Saturday. - Another strong warming trend Sunday and Monday. Unseasonably hot and windy Monday, approaching 90 degrees. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 The widespread dense fog event from this morning had ended as of 11 am, with all fog lifting into a widespread stratus layer. Stratus will continue to erode efficiently this afternoon, as mixing, south winds and warm advection increase south of the departing warm front. Temperatures will respond, rebounding strongly through the 70s, to near 80 adjacent to Oklahoma. South winds will continue to increase this afternoon, averaging near 20 mph. Radar at 2 pm showed scattered showers continuing to develop in the warm advection pattern, across the northeast panhandles, and northwest Oklahoma. Kept some pops in the forecast next several hours to account for this activity. Fog is not expected tonight, with SW KS fully in the warm sector. Light south winds will prevail. Sunrise temperatures Wednesday will be unseasonably warm, struggling to fall into the 50s at many locations. Normal for mid October is lower 40s. Wednesday and Thursday will both feature windy, unseasonably warm afternoons. Closed midlevel cyclone at 560 dm over Nevada 7 pm Wednesday is expected to eject into the northern Rockies, reaching southeast Montana Thursday evening as it strengthens. The surface response of lee cyclogenesis over eastern Colorado will establish Wednesday, but become even stronger Thursday. This synoptic evolution will keep the Kansas wind machine cranked, with 850 mb wind fields easily supporting south wind gusts near 40 mph both days. With 850 mb thermal fields unusually warm for mid October, near 20C, and a well mixed boundary layer, temperatures will easily achieve lower to mid 80s Wednesday and Thursday. The lack of SWly downslope should prevent temperatures from reaching 90 degrees. Energy from the ejecting northern Rockies trough will scrape across the northwest zones Thursday evening. Isolated thunderstorm development will favor the lee trough/frontal zone across the northwest zones, and NBM pops look appropriate. Per SPC Day 3 and marginal 5% wind/hail probability, some storms may be marginally severe, but the more robust convective environment will likely remain in NW KS to southwest Nebraska. As the trough spreads onto the plains Friday with lowering heights, the pressure gradients will collapse, with much lighter winds. A fantastic fall Friday will result, with light winds and comfortable temperatures in the 70s. Models continue to trend weaker with a weak dry cold front passage Saturday, with light north winds and about 5 degrees of cooling. This trough is far too progressive to support rainfall in SW KS, and NBM`s dry forecast reflects this. Another transient ridge of high pressure over the Great Basin Saturday, will arrive on the plains Sunday, and be east of SW KS Monday. Another strong warming trend is expected. In fact, near record highs are probable Monday October 20; NBM already is forecasting mid 80s, but strong SWly downslope will encourage temperatures near 90 4 pm Monday. The record high at DDC for October 20 is 92/1975, and this may be reachable, given pattern recognition of the strong 850 mb warm surge in model guidance. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1137 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 VFR conditions will prevail throughout the day with some high clouds present. Winds will be from the south, gusting to around 30 knots by this afternoon. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Turner AVIATION...Hovorka_42