964
FXUS63 KDDC 111713
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1213 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Minimal isolated thunderstorm chances (<20%) in west central
  Kansas Wednesday evening.

- Trend of temperatures topping 100 continues Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

WV imagery indicates a relatively zonal flow aloft prevailing across
the Western High Plains downstream of an upper level high parked
across the Four Corners Region. Near the surface, a lee side trough
of low pressure remains anchored in extreme southeast Colorado.

A mainly dry pattern continues tonight into Wednesday as the SREF
shows virtually no change to the overall pattern aloft with high
pressure projected to remain centered across the Four Corners Region
tonight before finally dislodging slightly eastward into the Western
High Plains early Wednesday. Again, isolated thunderstorm development
is likely across the high plains of eastern Colorado late this afternoon
as H5 vort maxima ejecting out of the northern Colorado Rockies interact
with the aforementioned anchored trough axis and in conjunction with
steeping mid-level lapse rates and sufficient enough instability.
An isolated storm or two drifting into west central Kansas and extreme
southwest Kansas cannot be ruled out later in the evening. Very minimal
thunderstorm chances (<20%) return to west central/extreme southwest
Kansas Wednesday evening as an embedded upper level shortwave crests
a broader scale ridge axis across the high plains of western Nebraska
while a surface trough axis/boundary remains locked in across
northeast Colorado/southwest Nebraska. Thunderstorms are forecast
to develop in vicinity of the aforementioned surface trough axis
as H5 vort maxima transition across the region, then spread northeast
into northwest Kansas as suggested by most CAMs, potentially affecting
areas in our extreme northwest.

The trend of unseasonably warm nights continues tonight as prevailing
southerlies reinforce a warmer air mass across southwest/central
Kansas. Considering the HREF shows a widespread 70-90% probability
of temperatures dropping below 80F, expect lows generally down into
the 70s(F) once again. The trend of temperatures topping 100F persists
Wednesday as prevailing southerlies reinforce the hot air mass across
the area with H85 temperatures ranging a little above 30C in central
Kansas to near 35C near the Colorado line. Look for afternoon highs
pushing a little above 100F with the HREF painting a widespread 70-90%
probability of temperatures exceeding 100F. Similar temperatures are
likely across much of the area Thursday, though an approaching cold
front may limit highs to the mid/upper 90s(F) in west central Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1127 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through
early Wednesday. Southerly winds 15 to 25kt with gusts up to 30kt
through late afternoon are expected to subside generally after
00-02Z with loss of daytime heating while lee side troughing
remains anchored in extreme southeast Colorado.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson