421
FXUS63 KDDC 301640
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1140 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday
  night, some producing heavy rain, flooding, and potentially
  weak tornadoes.

- Rain will continue Thursday with increasing northeast winds.

- Coolest morning of the young fall season expected Saturday,

- The coolest temperatures of the season are forecast for
  Saturday morning, well down into the 40s.

- A long dry stretch is expected this weekend through next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1055 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

** MESOSCALE DISCUSSION **

Surface-based severe thunderstorm risk, primary in the form of
weak/short-lived tornadoes due to low-topped supercell
structures, will increase after 17Z, peaking roughly 19-22Z time
frame, at the nose of an advancing mid level dry intrusion air
stream moving north out of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.
Low level winds were fairly strong per latest (1546Z) KDDC 88D
VAD Wind Profile (VWP). VWP showed a gradual increase in the
0-1km AGL SRH up to 150-200 m2/s2. This, combined with an
increase in the 0-3km AGL truncated SBCAPE, will support modest
low level mesocyclones with strongest updrafts, yielding
increased tornado potential as LFC heights are well below
climatological norms for High Plains severe weather setups
considering the tropical environment southwest Kansas is in.
Thus, any surface heating from insolation within the dry
intrusion will likely result in quick development of such low-
topped supercell structures as they advance northeast, to the
east of a surface low/defined surface vorticity max. By late
afternoon/early evening any low-topped supercell and associated
tornado risk will move northeast deeper into central/north
central Kansas.

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Midday radar and satellite imagery depicted the remnant mid
level vorticity max from Pacific Hurricane Polo, moving
northeast across SW KS. Widespread moderate to heavy rain was
associated with this feature. Primary closed, extratropical
cyclone was still back over New Mexico. Surface analysis
depicted the primary surface cyclone over the NW Panhandles,
expected to translate into the southeast zones this afternoon.
Mesoanalysis already depicts enough bulk shear and storm
relative helicity to support rotating updrafts, favoring the
southeast counties, with meaningful instability poised south of
the Oklahoma border (CAPE > 1000 J/kg). Through the afternoon,
a midlevel dryslot will work its way north into SW KS, pushing
stratiform rain north, allowing instability and clearing to
spread north, and encourage rapidly redeveloping scattered
thunderstorms to develop after 2 pm. With extremely low LCLs,
and a saturated tropical environment and strong low level shear,
weak tropical tornadoes are expected. These are not the same
animals as supercell tornadoes of our spring seasons, but are
still capable of causing minor damage, and any tornado watches
and warnings still need to be respected through this evening.
Special weather statements highlighting weak tornadoes may also
be issued from DDC for some of these storms.

Tonight, as the hurricane remnants eject north into Nebraska and
Iowa, the extratropical cutoff midlevel cyclone will be ejecting
northeastward into the western zones through sunrise Thursday.
Although chance category pops remain tonight, to catch any
scattered activity, a significant lull in activity is expected
tonight as the midlevel dry slot prevails. Widespread
deformation rainfall is expected to be confined to southeast
Colorado and adjacent far western zones through 7 am Thursday.

Models forecast the closed midlevel cyclone to weaken into an
open shortwave trough, and eject eastward directly over Kansas
daylight Thursday. Guidance continues to trend slightly
southward with the primary deformation lift Thursday, and pop
grids remain in the likely/definite categories much of Thursday
for many zones as a result. Another 1/2 to 1 inch of rain is
probable Thursday, especially where the preferred deformation
axis sets up. Associated cold front arrives Thursday afternoon
with increasing/elevated northeast winds, and temperatures
struggling to get out of the 60s.

Subsidence takes over rapidly Thursday night, with a clear sky
and strong surface ridging building south into Kansas through
sunrise Friday. Friday promises to deliver a beautiful fall
afternoon, with sunshine, temperatures in the 60s, and light
winds. A clear sky, light winds, and 1025 mb surface ridging
will provide strong radiational cooling Friday night and
Saturday morning, providing the coolest temperatures so far
this young fall season. NBM temperatures in the 40s Saturday
morning were accepted. A long stretch of dry weather is expected
this weekend through next week, with a benign synoptic pattern
and ridging prevailing over the Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1137 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Prevailing stratus associated with widespread rain showers will result
in MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys persisting in vicinity of all TAF sites through
much of the afternoon, although some lifting/scattering out is expected
across southern portions of southwest Kansas generally after 20-22Z,
allowing VFR conditions to possibly return as far north as KLBL.
Otherwise, low level stratus is forecast to redevelop along and behind
a weak stalled frontal boundary as it begins to edge southeast through
the remainder of southwest Kansas and south central Kansas this evening,
returning widespread IFR cigs and potentially MVFR/IFR vsbys in patchy
fog.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Thursday evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-
061>065-074>078-084>087.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Umscheid
DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...JJohnson