015
FXUS63 KDDC 011903
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
203 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drier conditions through the end of the week.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025

WV imagery indicates weak ridging aloft building slowly northeast
through the Desert Southwest. Near the surface, an area of low
pressure is moving slowly east out of extreme southeast Colorado
into southwest Kansas.

A relatively dry/unseasonably warm pattern is forecast to persist
early in the period as the SREF indicates ridging aloft continuing
to slowly build northeast out of the Desert Southwest into the
Western High Plains. Drier conditions are likely through Friday
with limited instability (MLCAPE values well under 1000 J/kg)
and a weak northwesterly flow aloft developing on the front side
of the amplifying ridge axis by this evening. Unseasonably warm
temperatures are likely again tonight as prevailing southerlies
reinforce a warmer air mass across the region. The latest HREF
paints a widespread 70-80% probability of temperatures falling
below 60F in west central Kansas and much of southwest Kansas
with a 50-70% probability of slipping below 65F in south central
Kansas. So, expect lows generally down into the 60s(F) in south
central Kansas with more widespread 50s(F) out west. A warming
trend continues Thursday as prevailing southerlies further draw
warmer air into the area, pushing H85 temperatures up into the
lower 20s(F) in central Kansas to near 25C near and along the
Colorado line. With the HREF showing a 40-60% probability of
temperatures exceeding 85F across southwest Kansas into south
central Kansas to only a 20-40% of that probability in vicinity
of the I-70 corridor, expect afternoon highs mainly up into the
mid/upper 80s(F). More widespread afternoon highs reaching 90F
across much of southwest Kansas is still expected Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1100 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through
early Thursday. Southerly winds 10 to 20kt with gusts up to 25kt
through mid/late afternoon are expected to subside, becoming more
variable generally after 23-01Z as a surface low in southeast
Colorado drifts eastward into southwest Kansas.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson