Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
392 FXXX12 KWNP 220031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Jul 22 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels as Region 4493 (N05W05, Dkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an M1.9 flare at 21/1727 UTC, which was the largest event of the period. AR 4493 continued to be the culprit for nearly all flare activity as it grew in longitudinal extent, but maintained a complex magnetic configuration to include a relatively small delta signature in its leading spots. The remaining three numbered active regions were stable and quiet in comparison. The flux emergence was noted near S07E10 and S08E23 that developed tenuous pores at times, but did not persist long enough as of the time of this writing to consider numbering. These areas will be monitored and considered for numbering in the coming period provided persistence or flare activity. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Additional M-class flare activity (R1-R2 radio blackouts) is likely through 24 July primarily due to the potential currently exhibited by AR 4493. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached returned to normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 23 Jul with a chance for high levels returning on 24 Jul with post high speed stream effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 24 Jul with a 5% chance for an S1 or greater event primarily due to the event potential of AR 4493. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected negative polarity CH HSS influences. Total field values reached 16-17 nT, while the Bz component of the IMF underwent several extended southward deflections that reached from -5 to -12 nT. Solar wind speeds underwent an increase from ambient-like levels below 300 km/s to speeds near 450 km/s by the end of the period. .Forecast... Solar wind speeds reaching 700 km/s are likely on 22 Jul based on recurrence. HSS conditions are expected to continue through 23 Jul before gradually diminishing over the course of 24 Jul. There is a chance for additional enhancements by late on 23 Jul due to glancing CME effects from events that left the Sun on 20 Jul. However, these outcomes are lower confidence. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active period during CIR onset. .Forecast... G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 22 Jul due to ongoing CH HSS effects. A chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic will persist through 24 Jul if the aforementioned CMEs from 20 Jul are indeed more Earth-directed than modeling suggests. Otherwise, quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated active periods, are expected through 24 Jul as CH HSS effects gradually wane.