Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
441 FXXX12 KWNP 270031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Oct 27 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. Newly numbered Region 4561 (S11W77, Dai/beta) produced low level C-class flare activity to include a long duration C2.8 AT 26/1840 UTC, which was the largest event of the period. This region also produced two CMEs, but neither are considered Earth-directed considering their origin. Region 4562 (S17E49, Axx/alpha) remained stable and relatively quiet. No Earth-directed CMEs were identified in available coronagraph imagery during the day. .Forecast... Solar activity will likely remain at low levels with C-class flares and slight chance for isolated M-class flare activity through 27 Oct as AR 4561 rotates beyond the western limb. A chance for isolated C-class flare activity will remain thereafter and through 29 Oct. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a peak flux of 3,300 pfu observed at 26/1105 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained steady at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at high levels on 27 Oct before decreasing to normal to moderate levels on 28-29 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is anticipated to persist at background levels through 28 Oct. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected transient-like enhancements. Total field became elevated at 6 to 9 nT beginning at approximately 26/0535 UTC. However, outside of a few brief, minor southward deflections the Bz component remained near neutral or northward. Solar wind speeds overall underwent a decrease from ~400 km/s to ~320 km/s before increasing once again to ~375-380 km/s by the end of the period. Phi was predominantly positive with brief excursions into a negative solar sector. .Forecast... Mildly enhanced solar wind parameters are likely to persist over the course of 27 Oct, but ambient-like conditions are expected to prevail on 28-29 Oct. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels . .Forecast... A chance for isolated unsettled periods will linger on 27 Oct. Mostly quiet conditions are then expected on 28-29 Oct.