157
FXUS63 KDLH 031133
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
533 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rainfall is expected to continue today through Wednesday.
  Additional rainfall of at least 0.75-2" is forecast for most
  locations today through Wednesday night.

- Rain will begin to taper off from west to east on Wednesday
  night into Thursday.

- A drier pattern with cooler temperatures will be arriving for
  the end of the week into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 306 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Widespread rain and drizzle is occurring early this morning as sfc
low pressure currently sits around the middle of the CWA. Within the
trowal region of this low pressure, located mainly north of the Iron
Range, light to moderate rain is continuing to fall and will be
propagating to the northeast later this morning. South of the low
pressure center, mainly in the St. Croix River Valley into northwest
WI, precip is much more isolated with areas of drizzle due to dry
air advecting into the CWA via the dry conveyor belt.

Minimal forecast changes have been made early this morning when
compared to the previous major update yesterday afternoon. Guidance
is still in agreement that a second low pressure will propagate into
the Upper Midwest this afternoon, redeveloping widespread rainfall
across the CWA. After rain tapers off from west to east on Wednesday
night into Thursday, expect cooler and drier air to advect into the
CWA for Friday into the weekend. Please see the previous forecast
discussion below for more details.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Rain showers are in full swing this afternoon, and will
continue tonight through Tuesday and Wednesday. The heaviest
rainfall is still expected this afternoon and evening with this
initial wave of moisture pushing through our region ahead of a
deepening low pressure system. A few embedded rumbles of thunder
remain possible across parts of the Northland through this
evening. Strong southeasterly winds will gust between 25 and 35
mph before easing later tonight. As a dry conveyor belt works
into the area overnight, widespread rain will transition to more
scattered showers. This will lead to a lull in rain intensity
tonight before a second round follows with another shortwave on
Tuesday. Given ongoing D1 to D4 drought conditions across the
Northland, this soaking rain brings welcome relief.

Widespread soaking rain will redevelop across the area on Tuesday
as a shortwave dives south from northern Manitoba and reinforces
the trough over the Upper Great Lakes, drawing an influx of Gulf
moisture into the region. Rainfall will expand in coverage by
Tuesday afternoon and turn heavy at times heading into Tuesday
night. Orographic enhancement over the North Shore will likely lead
to an additional 1.5-2 inches after this evening, while most others
will only see an inch to inch and a half. Rain showers will
continue through Tuesday night across the entire Northland, with
elevated instability supporting an isolated thunderstorm risk in
parts of northwest Wisconsin.

The low pressure system will briefly slow over the area
throughout Wednesday, causing showers to continue through
Wednesday. Rain will remain persistent and widespread across our
region before gradually tapering from west to east late Wednesday
night as the center of the system begins a sluggish shift
downstream. Multi-day storm total rainfall will broadly reach 1 to
2 inches across the Northland, with localized totals exceeding 2 to
3 inches in north-central Minnesota and along the higher terrain of
the North Shore. Winds will veer northwesterly Wednesday afternoon
as a cooler airmass begins filtering into western areas.

On the back end of the second system, northwest flow of cooler
air over Lake Superior will lead to a few light showers over
Ashland and Iron counties into Thursday. For the rest of the
Northland, rain will taper off early Thursday morning as the low
departs. A noticeably cooler airmass will overspread the region on
gusty northwest winds, causing daytime temperatures to struggle in
the lower to mid 40s. High pressure begins building into the Upper
Midwest late Thursday and maintains control through Friday. This
brings an end to the active wet pattern and allows some sunshine to
break through mostly cloudy skies.

Drier and quiet conditions will persist into the weekend as high
pressure shifts eastward across the Great Lakes. Saturday will
remain largely precipitation-free with partly sunny to mostly
cloudy skies. A weak upper-level disturbance will introduce a
slight 20 percent chance of light rain showers Saturday night into
Sunday, though no significant accumulation is anticipated. Quiet
weather returns Sunday afternoon with seasonably cool air
maintaining overnight lows down into the upper 20s and lower
30s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 533 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

IFR to LIFR conditions are expected to be persistent through the
period as one low pressure system exits to the northeast this
morning and a second low pressure arrives this afternoon. Widespread
rain is expected to redevelop by this afternoon, continuing through
tonight with occasional moderate to heavy rainfall rates. An
isolated embedded thunderstorm may occur this evening into tonight.
However, confidence in location or timing is very low given that
any thunderstorms will be very hit or miss.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 306 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Winds have eased early this morning as the center of low pressure
moves through northern Minnesota. As this low pressure departs to
the northeast this morning, a second low pressure system will be
arriving into the Upper Midwest this afternoon and evening. The
resulting northeast winds from this arriving low pressure are
expected to increase gusts to 25 knots this evening into Wednesday
morning. Waves are also anticipated to build in excess of 4 feet
around the Twin Ports and in the outer Apostle Islands. Small Craft
Advisories have been issued due these expected gusty winds and
elevated wave heights. Expect widespread rain to redevelop this
afternoon and continue through Wednesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 306 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Minimal fire weather concerns continue today into Wednesday as
widespread rain continues. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.75 to 2"
are forecast for most locations over a time period of today through
Wednesday night. Terrain enhancement along the North Shore in
southern Lake and Cook Counties is anticipated to result in
additional rainfall closer to around 2". Wind direction today will
be variable as the center of low pressure moves through, becoming
northeast tonight into Wednesday. Rain begins to taper off from west
to east late Wednesday into Thursday with a cooler and drier pattern
moving in for the end of the week into the weekend.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM CST
     Wednesday for LSZ140>147.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 PM CST
     Wednesday for LSZ150.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Unruh
DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...Unruh
MARINE...Unruh
FIRE WEATHER...Unruh