844
FXUS63 KDLH 281747
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1147 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered snow showers continue this morning. Localized
  visibility reductions and a quick dusting of accumulations are
  expected.

- Lake effect snow continues for Iron County, but may finally
  come to an end through the day today with drier air cutting
  off snowfall production.

- The next chance of snow through this weekend for areas from
  from Brainerd to Two Harbors and southeast, with the best
  chance (60%+) across NW WI. Locally higher snowfall amounts
  are possible for the South Shore.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 444 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

It is another morning of stratus and flurries that will not
quit, under weak cyclonic flow and enough moisture trapped
beneath the low level inversion to generate these flurries.
These should finally shut off as the surface ridge axis which is
currently over the eastern Dakotas slides east to over the
Northland later today and tonight. The models keep drying these
up, but will not be surprised if we need to keep extending them
until that surface ridge actually pushes far enough east. Have
included them through this morning for now. Lake Effect snow
continues for the South Shore within this regime of flurries. I
expect this to continue until the wind trajectory finally sends
the convective rolls away from the South Shore this evening.
However, with gradually drying conditions and weakening winds,
the snowfall rates have been much weaker and this trend should
continue.

Saturday into Sunday is our next chance for accumulating
precipitation. A potent shortwave moves across the Rockies
tonight, causing a surface low to develop over southeast CO,
which then swoops across the Kansas plains, then turning
northeast and arriving into Lower Michigan by Sunday morning.
This system will bring a broad area of snow across the northern
Plains into the Great Lakes region tonight through Sunday. The
bulk of this system will pass to our south, but we are looking
at some light snowfall accumulations across our southern
counties Saturday and Saturday night. It will also generate
another round of Lake Effect snowfall for the South Shore. In
fact, the high resolution models are implying we will have a
decent convergent band that should set up and affect much of the
South Shore region, but may also affect the Twin Ports Saturday
and Saturday night. This signal is pretty smoothed out for now
to account for the potential different positions of this band,
potentially producing some localized moderate to heavy snowfall.


A ridge of high pressure builds into the area early next week,
which should bring a period of quiet but colder weather for at
least a couple days. The forecast is currently for well below
normal temperatures for early next week, with some single digit
low temperatures. Sunday night into Monday, and again Monday
night into Tuesday. There are some indications that we may get
another shortwave and trough axis to move across the area about
the middle part of next week. We are currently carrying some
slight chance to chance pops beginning Wednesday through the
rest of the week, with moderating, though still below normal
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1147 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

MVFR ceilings with flurries are expected to continue through this
afternoon. Some heavier snow showers are possible at times at HYR
through mid afternoon. Ceilings should slowly lift this afternoon
and evening, but flurries could continue even with VFR ceilings.
Saturday morning, a little light snow could start to come into BRD,
otherwise VFR conditions with light winds are expected elsewhere
through the TAF period after midnight.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 444 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Northwest winds continue to diminish today as high pressure
builds into the region. Currently, we have Small Craft
Advisories lingering into this morning, but as winds continue to
drop, these will expire by 10 AM. An approaching low pressure
system will cause winds to veer to the northeast on Saturday,
only to swing back northwest and increase for Sunday. We should
have a period of stronger wind gusts which may necessitate
another round of Small Craft Advisories on Sunday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for LSZ140-141-147-
     148-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...Levens
MARINE...LE