254
FXUS63 KDLH 170902
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
302 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions expected today as high pressure persists. Cloud
  cover will be increasing in southern portions of the Northland
  this afternoon and evening.

- Precipitation is expected to remain south of the area tonight
  into Tuesday morning, with the Northland remaining dry.

- A more active pattern develops around mid to late this week,
  but the potential for large, impactful low pressure systems
  remains low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

High pressure remains in control of the pattern early this morning,
with mostly clear to clear skies being observed on satellite
imagery. These mostly clear to clear skies are expected to persist
for the northern half of the CWA today as dry air advection
continues from northern Manitoba and Ontario. Farther south, skies
will become partly to mostly cloudy this afternoon and evening as
low pressure moves into the Midwest. High temps today are forecast
to be similar to yesterday, ranging from near freezing in the tip of
the Arrowhead to the low to mid 40s in the St. Croix River Valley
around Pine and Burnett Counties. Relative humidity will once again
be dry, but slightly elevated compared to yesterday due to the
increased cloud cover and less robust diurnal mixing.

A Colorado Low is expected to develop this morning in the High
Plains and propagate into the mid-Mississippi River Valley on
Tuesday morning. As this low taps into deep Gulf moisture, a band of
precip will likely develop around enhanced FGEN in the deformation
zone. Run-to-run comparisons of global deterministic models show a
strong trend of this precip band remaining south of the CWA as this
Colorado Low moves through the region. CAMs further support this
trend, with the 00z HREF strongly suggesting that this precipitation
remains south of the CWA. Given these trends, precipitation has been
removed across the entire CWA tonight through Tuesday morning.

A change in pattern begins on Tuesday night as surface high pressure
propagates downstream and a more active pattern moves into the Upper
Midwest. A subtle shortwave propagating into the Borderlands on
Wednesday, followed by a more organized Alberta Clipper type
low pressure arriving on Thursday will likely bring widespread
precipitation to the CWA. Much of the precip associated with
this precip chance on Wednesday through Thursday will most
likely fall as rain, as low-level and sfc temps largely remain
above freezing. However, a wintry mix to light snow will be
possible in far northern MN and north-central WI as temps drop
to or below freezing, especially on Wednesday night. Overall
impacts from this Clipper are currently expected to be minimal,
even for areas that see mostly snowfall. With temps being so
close to freezing, low SLRs are expected to limit snow
accumulation to a few tenths of an inch at most.

After the Clipper propagates downstream of the CWA, dry conditions
are expected to return on Thursday night into Friday for most as
high pressure returns. A few lingering light snow showers may be
possible on Friday near the International Border as cyclonic flow
aloft occurs, but dry air could limit this potential. Previously,
there were indications that a Panhandle Hook type low pressure could
bring precipitation to portions of the CWA. However, global models
continue to keep this system well south of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1058 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

High pressure over the area will keep VFR conditions and light
winds persisting through the end of the TAF period. Some VFR
low clouds with bases around 5000 ft are possible at BRD Monday
afternoon and evening as a low pressure system passes south of
the area, but no impacts are expected as weather stays dry.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 302 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Northwest winds are expected to ease today to around 10 knots or
less as high pressure moves into the area. Wind direction across
western Lake Superior shifts east to northeast late tonight,
remaining easterly through much of Tuesday. Wind speeds are
anticipated to remain light through Tuesday night with sustained
winds of 10 knots or less and gusts under 15 knots. Waves will be
around 1 foot or less over the next couple days.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Unruh
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...Unruh