081
FXUS63 KDLH 301737
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1237 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures continue through the work week.

- Northeast winds near Lake Superior will lead to cooler by the
  lake conditions today and rip currents with waves building to
  4 to 6 feet.

- Very low chances for precipitation through Thursday, then
  increasing Friday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 131 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025

After a quiet night and some patchy dense fog potential across
northwest Wisconsin, our weather pattern will bring a warm-up to
the Northland this week. Today, expect breezy conditions with a
noticeable temperature difference across the area; while inland
locations warm into the mid and upper 70s, a persistent wind
off of Lake Superior will keep communities along the shore much
cooler, with highs only in the 60s. This same wind will cause
rip currents and hazardous swimming conditions - a Beach Hazards
Statement is in effect today. May see a few showers today
though just a stray sprinkle is probably the best they can
muster at the surface due to a deep level of mid- level dry air.

The entire region gets in on the warmth by Wednesday as
southerly winds take over, pushing temperatures into the mid-70s
and even low 80s for most which will last through Friday. These
temperatures are 20 degrees above average for this time of
year! In fact, the extreme forecast index from the ECMWF shows
Friday temps as the highest in the climatological record.

Aside from the hot weather for this time of year, a weak disturbance
could bring a chance for some light rain on Thursday, but our best
chance for more active weather arrives for the weekend. Starting
Friday and lasting through Sunday, southwest flow will bring a
weather system into the region and with it moisture and energy,
increasing the potential for showers and thunderstorms to develop
across the area - maybe even a small chance for severe weather
according to the CSU machine learning guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Strong easterly winds gusting to 30 knots off Lake Superior
last through 06Z this evening. Expect east-southeast winds 5-10
knots to persist over night. There is low-end chances of another
area of IFR stratus into the Twin Ports and near Ashland
tonight.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 131 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Northeast winds will strengthen, with gusts of 25-30 knots
expected, which will cause waves to build to as high as 4-6 feet
with the largest waves on the north side of the Apostle
Islands. Due to these conditions, a Small Craft Advisory is in
effect through tonight, as the choppy water will be dangerous
for smaller vessels. Conditions are expected to gradually
improve throughout the day on Wednesday as winds weaken,
allowing the waves to calm down to a more manageable one to two
feet.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     MNZ037.
WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     WIZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM CDT Wednesday for LSZ140>146-
     150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolfe
AVIATION...NLy
MARINE...Wolfe