870
FXUS63 KDMX 290446
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1046 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very light snow/flurries possible in western to southern Iowa
  late tonight into Thursday. Probability of measurable snow is
  20% or less and impacts will be negligible.

- Colder Friday and Friday night. Saturday morning lows will be
  near or below zero, with wind chill values of 10 to 20 below
  zero.

- Snow chances return Sunday and Sunday night, with
  approximately a 60% chance of measurable snow during that
  time, but more precise details of timing and placement unclear
  at this range. It is likely any accumulations will be light.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

A few flurries are moving across the area this afternoon, but
they are very spotty and light as dewpoint depressions remain in
the 15-20 degree range and no impacts are being observed or
expected. A surface high pressure ridge is gradually building
down the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota, and will extend across
the northeastern half or so of Iowa tonight into Thursday.
Meanwhile, a 500 MB shortwave impulse will sink over the High
Plains tonight and Thursday, with a band of modest
frontogenetical forcing and warm air advection aloft producing
a swath of light snow within that region. Model consensus takes
most of the resulting QPF, which is generally light, southwest
of our area over Nebraska, Kansas, and Missouri. However, some
solutions do brush it into our western and southern counties
late tonight into Thursday. Working against this potential is
the continuing influence of near-surface dry air streaming out
of the aforementioned ridge. Forecast soundings and cross-
sections show that this admittedly shallow layer at and just
above the surface will stubbornly persist through the day, with
the result being flurries in our west and south, with perhaps a
dusting of snow in a few areas but little to no impact. Have
nudged POPs up in those areas just a bit on Thursday, to around
20%, and also introduced flurries in areas where POPs are 10%
consistent with the approach taken for today.

On Friday and Friday night a 500 MB trough will sink southward
over Iowa and the region, which will pull the large surface
ridge currently well to our northwest down through our area and
bring cooler and dry weather to end the week. With the center of
the high moving through Friday and Friday night the coldest
temperatures will be felt during this time, as Friday afternoon
highs are forecast only in the upper single digits to mid teens,
with Saturday morning lows near or below zero across the area.
Fortunately winds will be light enough to mitigate the threat of
extreme cold, but even so wind chill values will likely range
from 10 to 20 below zero late Friday night/early Saturday making
for a cold end to January.

In the latter half of the weekend a discombobulated 500 MB
trough will move across the region, with most solutions
depicting 2-3 distinct but closely intertwined shortwaves
comprising the broader trough. With the large surface ridge
gradually moving away from Saturday night onward, our low level
winds will come around to south to southwest Sunday and Sunday
night, resulting in moderating temperatures. However,
concurrently, areas of forcing for ascent and a moistening
profile will support the generation of light snow at times.
The overall chance for measurable snow in our area during the 24
hours from late Saturday night through late Sunday night is
relatively high (around 60%), the complicated interrelation of
the shortwaves within the 500 MB trough leads to very low
confidence in the timing and area of the highest POPs and these
details will need to be sorted out in the coming days.
Regardless of how the specifics pan out, indications are that
any snow that does fall in our area will generally be of light
accumulation and without strong winds, helping to minimize
travel impacts.

A brief period of weak ridging will move through early next
week, but then another 500 MB trough/low will be nearby around
late Tuesday or Wednesday, which may bring a return of
precipitation chances. This pattern will also support moderate
temperatures to start February, with current forecast highs in
the 20s to 30s in the first half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1045 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

VFR to prevail with clearing beginning in the north after 00z.
North to northeasterly winds will prevail and remain light. Snow
still looks to remain away from all sites in the morning hours.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lee
AVIATION...Jimenez