040
FXUS63 KDMX 261141
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
541 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025

 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm, above normal temps through the coming work week with
  several breezy days

- Dry through at least Thursday

- Some precipitation chances by Friday and Saturday, but
  confidence in details is low

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025

The biggest weather story into this week will be dry conditions
and several days with breezy conditions and warm temperatures,
possible touching 50F+ at times. Iowa will continue to be
influenced by fairly inactive northwest flow aloft,
strengthening into midweek as a jet segment and associated
elongated vorticity shear axis dive into the Great Lakes. A weak
wave will traverse the parent ON upper trough through the Upper
MS Valley today but with little moisture or lift. Surface high
pressure will then push south later today allowing for
persistent downslope low level flow into IA into midweek,
warming temperatures quite a bit. Based the past few days, this
pattern should be fairly efficient warming temps so have boosted
highs to the top of the guidance envelope. This should push
highs well into the 40s Monday, with spot 50s possible Tuesday
and Thursday bookending minor cooling associated with the tail
end of the Great Lakes surface reflection of the digging speed
max. It will be breezy at times as well with decent low level
flow and mixing boosted wind gusts to at least 30-35 mph north
Monday and Tuesday.

By Thursday our attention will turn to the system currently
over CA as it drifts into AZ and NM. There is still a decent
amount of variability in deterministic, ensemble, and AI
solutions with this system later in week with timing, strength,
and track all still uncertain leading to continued low
confidence. There may be a few nuggets of insight however.
12Z/25 EPS/GEFS/GEPS cluster analysis would support a slower,
more northerly track with 45% of the members suggesting a fairly
open wave over IA 12Z Saturday, and slower closed low
evolutions often verify. So while this would appear to favor
affecting IA more, the 00z EPS and GEFS H5 mean solutions are
similar, and their 24hr 1 snow probabilities at 10:1 ratios are
all 30% or less Fri night through the weekend, with the system
weakening with time, so there really isnt a noteworthy snow
signal apparently due to insufficient cooling. Support from the
00z GraphCast and Aurora AI runs suggest weaker end solutions
as well, so at the moment the weekend precip signal appears to
be unremarkable. It should be noted that some ensemble
solutions do depict a warm layer aloft, and some freezing rain
potential, however that has been omitted for the time being in
favor or just rain or snow wording until those probabilities
increase.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 541 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will persist through the
period with nothing beyond periods of mid and high level
cloudiness, and mainly south. Winds aren`t expected to change
much, staying SW-NW at <15 kts sustained.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Small
AVIATION...Small