031
FXUS63 KDVN 211916
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
116 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Beautiful weekend is expected for the area with highs in the
  50s to near 60s with plenty of sun.

- Active next week with a couple systems to watch. Mild
  conditions continue into early next week, then cooling off
  toward the holiday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 116 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Rain will come to an end tonight as the wave moves east of the
area. Drier air, denoted in the GFSbufr soundings along with DVN
18Z RAOB, will keep this rain south, even though radar depicts
returns as far north as I-80. Expect a more pronounced trend
toward clearing skies overnight as lows dip into the 30s.

Saturday, ridging and high pressure builds into the area. This
will usher in a quiet and highly favorable start to the weekend
with mostly sunny skies. The pleasant forecast is accompanied
by a warming trend, with afternoon temperatures climbing into
the mid 50s, above normal for this time of year. Ensemble
guidance is in excellent agreement on overall pleasant
temperature pattern, with a majority of solutions tightly
clustering tightly between 52 and 57 degrees. Main theme, be
sure to get out and enjoy the weekend weather!

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 116 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Overall, long term discussion from overnight is still
representative.

Sunday...While a Rex Block reigns acrs the
western third or so of the CONUS, the local area will be the
beneficiary of lee side ridging and southerly return flow making
for a dry and mild weekend for late November. As long as we get
the sunshine, advected in thermal parameters support highs in
the 50s and diurnal swing lows in the low to mid 30s Sunday
morning. Sunday we could have some 60s in several locations.
South winds and increasing high cloud cover will make for milder
lows by Monday morning.

Monday through Thursday...The latest suite of ensembles suggest the
upstream undercutting low pressure portion of the block out west
will look to roll toward the area by Monday night. Pre-wave warm
moist conveyor will look to fuel rain moving up acrs the area by
Monday afternoon and lasting well into Monday night, then moving off
to the east Tuesday morning. Early indications this may be another
tenth to near a half inch rainfall event. The mild temps look to
continue through at least Tuesday, then beyond in the mid to late
week period, it appears wavy with a lot of noise in the ensembles
making for low confidence at this juncture. Flow patterns and mid
CONUS baroclinic lay out at question and showing high variance, but
a general cooling trend may look to happen. The steering flow could
be split again and making it hard to determine where the prime west-
east baroclinic storm highways lay out acrs the central CONUS. Of
course this leads into a high profile holiday period late week and a
window to watch for trends of potential rain or snow makers.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1114 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Outside of any rain, VFR conditions are expected to prevail. At
BRL, we could see some MVFR cigs/vsbys in any rain. Otherwise,
winds under 10 kts expected.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...Gibbs/12
AVIATION...Gibbs