417
ACUS01 KWNS 060547
SWODY1
SPC AC 060545

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A couple stronger storms are possible over the southern High Plains
and into the Midwest/Great Lakes today and tonight. However,
widespread severe storms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
In the mid-levels, a broad upper trough will continue eastward
across southern Canada and the northern US while a weak
positive-tilt perturbation will move eastward over the Rockies and
northern Plains within a belt of enhanced southwesterly flow. At the
surface, a cold front associated with the upper trough will move
slowly east/southeastward, supporting scattered thunderstorms from
the Great Lakes to the Southern Plains. While a few stronger storms
are possible, minimal overlap of stronger buoyancy and vertical
shear will largely preclude organized severe potential today and
tonight.

...Southern High Plains...
As the cold front continues south across the central and southern
Plains, low-level easterly flow will increase over portions of
eastern NM and west TX/OK. Weak upslope flow and diurnal heating of
the modestly moist air mass should result in weak destabilization
(MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) through the afternoon. This could support
scattered thunderstorms (a couple of which may briefly be stronger)
from eastern NM into the TX Panhandle and western OK. With 30 kt of
deep-layer shear overspreading the area, multi-cell clusters capable
of occasional strong outflow gusts are the primary risk. However,
poor mid-level lapse rates, modest forcing for ascent and limited
buoyancy suggest low storm coverage and limited potential for a more
widespread and organized severe risk.

...Midwest to the central Plains...
Along the cold front/surface trough, weak forcing ahead of an
embedded shortwave perturbation within broad southwesterly flow
aloft should support scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon from
the central Plains to the Midwest. Surface heating along with modest
dewpoints mostly in the 60s F will support modest buoyancy of 500 to
1000 J/kg, surface based ahead of the front and elevated
along/behind it. A few stronger storms with damaging gust potential
are possible across northern IL owing to 30-40 kt of effective shear
oriented along the boundary. These storms may continue after dark
into lower MI with sporadic damaging gust potential. However, the
lack of more robust destabilization should limit storm
organization/intensity.

..Lyons/Darrow.. 10/06/2025

$$