787
ACUS01 KWNS 180043
SWODY1
SPC AC 180042

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Valid 180100Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MISSOURI REGION...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms, capable of producing hail, may occur
across parts of Missouri and western Illinois tonight.

...01z Update...

Upper ridge is beginning to flatten across the MS Valley as midlevel
height falls spread into this region ahead of a progressive
short-wave trough. Early-evening water-vapor imagery clearly depicts
this feature over NE/KS and a 60-70kt 500mb speed max will translate
across KS into western MO by 06z. This feature will encourage the
LLJ to strengthen across MO into western IL, which will aid a
corridor of warm advection across the lower MO Valley region through
sunrise.

One pocket of elevated convection has developed within this zone and
scattered convection is spreading across eastern MO into western IL
at 0030z. Latest MRMS data suggests small hail is likely occurring
within the more robust updrafts. 00z sounding from SGF exhibits a
strongly sheared, warm advection profile, but only meager MUCAPE is
noted for parcels lifted near 850mb. Forecast soundings across the
MRGL Risk area show increasing instability later tonight, especially
after midnight. As large-scale forcing increases, scattered elevated
thunderstorms should develop, some of which may generate hail.

..Darrow.. 11/18/2025

$$