121
ACUS02 KWNS 091732
SWODY2
SPC AC 091730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Large hail (some in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and severe
outflow gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) will be possible
Sunday afternoon/evening across parts of central and north Texas.

...Southern Plains Sunday afternoon/night...
Within the broader pattern of a Great Lakes trough and Intermountain
ridge, an embedded shortwave trough now over the northern Rockies
will progress southeastward to KS/OK by Sunday afternoon.  In the
wake of this shortwave trough and a separate northern stream wave
over the Great Lakes, a surface cold front will move southeastward
across OK/TX.  Convection will likely be ongoing at 12z across OK in
the vicinity of the front.  There will be some potential for the
overnight convection in OK to continue east-southeastward during the
day into AR/northern LA into MS with the threat for at least
isolated wind damage and large hail.

Additional storm development is likely along the front Sunday
afternoon from the Edwards Plateau into north TX, with the northern
extent of development modulated by morning convection and associated
convective outflow.  Convective inhibition will diminish by
early-mid afternoon and MLCAPE will increase to 2500-3000 J/kg as
surface heating (temperatures of 85-90 F) drives deep mixing beneath
an elevated mixed layer with midlevel lapse rates of 8-9 C/km.
Vertical shear will be relatively weak in the open warm sector, with
modest shear enhancement expected along the front and/or lingering
convective outflows in the vicinity of the Red River.  Somewhat
discrete convection may occur initially with some supercell
potential, which will drive the potential for isolated very large
hail.  The potential for severe outflow gusts will increase with
upscale growth, given the steep lapse rate environment.  Storms will
likely reach the TX coast and deep South TX by early Monday morning.


...FL Sunday afternoon/evening...
Strong surface heating across the FL peninsula will likely support
sea breeze thunderstorms Sunday afternoon/evening.  The more
probable zone for development will be skewed to the central
peninsula and Atlantic coast given a westerly component to the
low-midlevel flow.  Isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail
will be the main threats.

..Thompson.. 05/09/2026

$$