Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
282 ACUS03 KWNS 301922 SWODY3 SPC AC 301921 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected through Tuesday across the Southeast to the Atlantic Coastline. The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears limited. ...Synopsis... A surface cyclone is forecast to intensify along the Atlantic coast through the day Tuesday as a broad upper-level wave moves into the eastern CONUS. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear probable across parts of the Southeast and portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic as strong synoptic-scale ascent overspreads a marginally buoyant air mass. ...Florida Panhandle into northern Florida/southern Georgia... An initially weak surface low should be developing across the FL Panhandle by around 12 UTC Tuesday morning with isolated to scattered thunderstorms ongoing within a strengthening warm advection regime. While elevated thunderstorms will likely develop across the broader region, a narrow surface-based warm sector may materialize from the FL Panhandle eastward into northern FL/Southern GA through 18 UTC. Medium-range ensemble guidance suggests SBCAPE values may increase to 250-500 J/kg before an advancing cold front shunts any surface-based buoyancy offshore by early/mid-afternoon. More bullish solutions suggest that convection may be sufficiently deep to realize the strongly sheared environment that should manifest as the cyclone intensifies. However, the general model consensus is that buoyancy profiles will likely remain too weak to support robust updraft development, limiting confidence in the potential for an appreciable severe threat. Even the typically aggressive RRFS depicts only a weak/transient updraft/UH signal across this region, suggesting that the overall severe threat is limited. While risk probabilities are withheld, thermodynamic trends will continue to be monitored given the very favorable kinematic environment. ..Moore.. 11/30/2025 $$