035
ACUS03 KWNS 141923
SWODY3
SPC AC 141922

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorm activity is possible across parts of the
lower Colorado Valley into Colorado Plateau and portions of the
central Great Plains, but the risk for severe storms still appears
negligible Sunday through Sunday night.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that significant surface cyclogenesis will proceed
Sunday through Sunday night, mainly from coastal Maine through the
Canadian Maritimes, as an associated short wave trough digs
southeast of the lower Great Lakes region and reinforces positively
tilted large-scale mid/upper troughing across much of eastern Canada
and the Northeast into adjacent western Atlantic.  In the wake of
the cyclone, a cold front appears likely to advance southeast of the
northern Mid Atlantic and Ohio Valley, offshore of the Atlantic
Seaboard through the Carolinas into the Gulf Coast states by late
Sunday night.

Upstream, splitting troughing, within a broad area of generally
higher mid/upper heights, is forecast to continue to approach the
U.S Pacific coast, with perhaps the digging southern perturbation
supporting modest cyclogenesis offshore of the central California
coast Sunday night.  It appears that this will contribute to the
continued east-northeastward acceleration of the remnants of an
initially cut-off low, northeast of the lower Colorado Valley
through the Rockies.

Modest deepening of lee surface troughing will probably be
accompanied by strengthening southerly low-level flow across the
high plains, but it appears that better boundary-layer moistening
off the Gulf Basin will be confined beneath a relatively warm and
capping lower/mid-tropospheric environment across the northwestern
Gulf coast into southern Great Plains.

...Southwest into Great Plains...
Cooling mid-levels, preceded by low-level moisture return from the
lower latitudes of the eastern Pacific and Gulf of California, may
contribute to thermodynamic profiles conducive to scattered
convective development capable of producing lightning across parts
of the Southwest through southern Rockies Sunday into Sunday night.
It is possible that this could include modest boundary layer
destabilization during the day across the deserts of southwestern
into central Arizona, in the presence of at least strong deep-layer
shear.  A couple of thunderstorms with potential to produce hail and
surface gusts approaching or exceeding severe limits might not be
completely out of the question.  While probabilities for this still
generally appear negligible, it is possible that this could change
with diminishing model spread in later outlooks for this period.

Otherwise, as mid/upper forcing for ascent increases downstream of
the Colorado Rockies by late Sunday night, an elevated moistening
layer rooted near or above 700 mb might destabilize sufficiently to
support weak convection capable of producing lightning.

..Kerr.. 11/14/2025

$$