030
FXUS63 KEAX 040747
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
247 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued quiet and dry weather conditions with near-normal
  temperatures through Monday

- Trending warmer/ above normal from Tuesday onward.

- Very small chances (10-15%) for rain in northern Missouri Thursday-
  Thursday night

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Water vapor imagery early this morning shows a shortwave trough
moving from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes/ Southern Ontario
region. This shortwave will help push a weak front southward
through the area this morning. This will help reinforce the
seasonable temperatures and dry airmass over the region. High
pressure will settle over the region tonight into Monday,
resulting continued cool overnight lows with widespread middle
40s forecast for Monday morning. With light winds, sheltered/
cold air drainage areas will see cooler temperatures, in the
lower 40s.

That high pressure will shift to over the East Coast by
Tuesday, with southerly flow returning for Tuesday. This warm
advection is aided by increasing 500mb heights and 1000-500mb
thicknesses as upper ridging builds over the western US. Given
this, we`ll see highs climb back above normal Tuesday with highs
in the upper 70s expected. Highs return to the 80s for mid to
late week, which is between 10 and 15 degrees above normal by
the end of next week.

There is one timeframe when precipitation potential is trending
upward. Thursday, a warm front starts to lift northward through the
area. This may provide just enough lift during the day to get a few
showers going. Otherwise, the better chances arrive overnight when
the low-level jet kicks in and enhances lift on the nose of
that jet from eastern Nebraska through northeastern Missouri.
Chances still look fairly low (around 15% currently), though they
are trending higher.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

VFR conds with clr skies are fcst thru the pd. Winds will be
lgt and vrb thru 14Z-15Z before becmg northerly btn 5-10kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...73