682
FXUS63 KEAX 130814
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
314 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Light rain chances (20%-40%) continue across the southern and
  western forecast area today.

* Warming temperatures expected Tuesday through Friday keeping
  temperatures above seasonal averages.

* Next chance for storms arrives Friday...severe weather not
  expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Early this morning, a cold front is moving through the forecast area
and currently resides in the vicinity of the I-35 corridor as of
2AM. Light showers have developed out ahead of the front and are
expected to affect areas east of I-35 this morning. This front is
expected to stall out across the area today as the upper level
trough that ushered in this cold front is shifting northeast in the
Canadian Plains meanwhile a upper level ridge resides to the south
of the area. A few shortwaves rounding the ridge to our south may
continue to bring a few light showers (20%-40%) across the southern
and western CWA this afternoon and tonight. Also tonight into
Tuesday, a upper trough will dig down the the west coast. In
response upstream upper level ridging will build over the central
CONUS. This upper ridge will dominate the area through the middle of
the work week and become more amplified as the upper trough moves
from the west to the central Rockies. This will produce a warming
trend through midweek with highs on Tuesday in the upper 60s
(north) to near 80 (south) and rise in the low to mid 80s by Thursday.

Friday, the aforementioned upper level trough will move from the
central Rockies into the northern Plains. This will force a cold
front into the area and bring the next chance for showers and
thunderstorms. Models continue to try and resolve the timing and
strength of the trough with GFS continuing to be stronger, deeper and
more progressive with the trough then the slower and weaker EC.
Consequently, NBM is probably holding PoPs in the forecast too long
this weekend however Friday (cold front) and Saturday (upper trough)
will look to have scattered showers and thunderstorms before drying
out Saturday night. Highs Friday ahead of the front will rise into
the mid 70s to mid 80s but will fall into the low to mid 70s
Saturday. High pressure looks to build into the area Sunday
providing weak mixing leaving highs in the mid 60s to near 70.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast. A sharp cold
front, with a fairly abrupt wind shift, will move south through
the area in the next 2-5 hours. The front actually shows up on
radar and tracked its timing into STJ is around 05Z, MCI around
06Z, and MKC and IXD around 07Z. Additionally, a few showers may
affect MKC and IXD ahead of the front. Winds shift to the north
behind the front and may see an hour or two gusts in the
20-25kt range. Winds then diminish for the remainder of the
overnight and shift to the east-northeast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...CDB