543
FXUS63 KEAX 262047
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
247 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Seasonably cool temperatures through the Holiday and end of week,
  then colder through the weekend.
  - Highs fall into the 20s for many by Sunday into early next week

* Confidence continues to increase for an impactful winter system to
  impact the region late Friday through Saturday.
  - Will impact post-Thanksgiving travel
  - Snow to rain/snow mixes mainly N of I-70
  - Rain/snow mixes to rain mainly S of I-70

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

The proverbial calm before the storm, which will be touched on in a
moment...

Aside from gusty NW winds, quiet conditions prevailed across the
area underneath mostly sunny skies. The causal surface low/high pair
of the gusty NW winds continues to slowly drift eastward, allowing
increasing surface high influence to move into the immediate area.
This has resulted in the gradual easing of the NW winds, most
notably over western areas of the forecast area. Portions of E/NE
Missouri continue to see gusts of 25-30+ mph, but too will ease as
we working through the remainder of the day. As a result, local
travel conditions ahead of Thanksgiving will not be too bad.

Leading into Thanksgiving and the end of the week, large scale mid-
upper level NW flow will keep overall conditions cool, and largely
on the quiet side as well. Sliding down the flow will be a >120-
130kt jet streak late tonight/overnight, which will provide at
minimum provide some mid-level cloud cover. A couple models attempt
some very light QPF (mainly SW of the area into NWS ICT), but is
quite unlikely given the overall weak forcing and substantive dry
air mass below. Otherwise, expect temperatures to be on the
seasonally cool side with highs in the upper 30s to upper 40s Turkey
Day and a couple degrees cooler in northern areas Friday.

Confidence in a post-Thanksgiving winter storm system to affect the
region is a certainty at this point as a fairly quick moving PV
anomaly comes on/into the PNW Friday and glides SE across the
Rockies. By Friday evening, Lee Cyclogenesis and increasing
southerly flow across the Southern/Central Plains begins, with the
surface low moving E/ENE off the CO/NM Front Range and deepening
overnight Friday into Saturday. Fortunately, greatest effects remain
expected northward into Iowa/northern Illinois/Wisconsin/etc where
double digit snowfall amounts appear likely. Into Missouri, there
remains fairly substantial uncertainty, and primarily around/north
of I-70, with regards to p-type progression and subsequent snowfall
amounts. GFS/Euro operational and ensemble suites have suggested a
cooling trend, and by virtue southward movement to rain/snow line,
over the last couple/few cycles. The NBM has appeared too slow
(warm) on this, so have trended things cooler/snowier in conjunction
with neighboring offices. That said, while current forecast package
will depict ~1"-4" forecast amounts (greatest NE), there are a
concerning number of ensemble members (let alone deterministic
operational runs) that paint >4"-6" snow potential across N/NE
Missouri. For the time being, have taken a cautious approach with
neighbors given differences in low tracks and cold air depictions,
but would not be surprised at all to see snow trend upwards over
N/NE Missouri. Headlines of some sort around/N of Highway 36 and
east of I-35 will be increasingly likely as well, just a matter of
what flavor so to speak.

Further south (I-70 southward), including KC Metro, greater
certainty in `warm enough` temperatures to largely limit snow
hazards. Certainly possible to see an initial snow to rain/snow mix,
transitioning to cold rain, then a brief transition back to snow
from Friday overnight through Saturday evening. Additionally,
thermal profiles suggest that this is a most purely a rain/snow
issue versus any areas of freezing rain/drizzle or otherwise. That
too should limit overall issues in these more central to southern
areas.

This system quickly exits the area Saturday night/overnight and will
usher in an additional push of cold air into the region. This will
result in the coldest temperatures of the season as highs in the 20s
and lows in the single digits to teens appear likely for most of the
forecast area Sunday and into early next week. A quick moving and
compact shortwave too remains signaled early next week/Monday
within synoptic guidance that could provide some light snow, but
variance in track and strength remains fairly substantial within
ensembles. However, something to keep an eye on. Behind this quick
scooter, temperatures warm through at least mid-week toward seasonal
norms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1128 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Currently gusty NW winds will gradually ease through the day
today. By or just a bit after 00z this evening, winds will ease
back to around 5kts across the sites, but largely remain out of
the NW. A mid-level cloud deck (8-10kft or so) will glide
through, and is not expected to produce anything other than said
cloud cover. Takeaway... VFR conditions expected throughout this
period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...Curtis