218
FXUS63 KEAX 102105
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
305 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind Gusts Continue To Diminish Through The Evening

- Temperature Roller Coaster This Week

- Light Snow Possible Northern/Northeastern MO Thursday, Saturday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Deep trough axis has moved into the Ohio River Valley this afternoon
and has shifted the strong surface cyclone into the Great Lakes
Region. The strongest portion of the pressure gradient has finally
exited eastward, and brought an end to the wind gusts of over 40
MPH. The last of the jet streak with that trough is exiting the
area, but is still providing some lift over Central Missouri which
will provide cloud cover through the rest of the evening. H5 ridge
axis is developing over the western third of the CONUS with strong
AVA regime into the Central CONUS, forcing a surface anticyclone
into the eastern Plains through the remainder of the evening. This
will result in clearing clouds this evening for western Missouri and
eastern Kansas. Strong northwesterly flow behind the exiting cold
front will allow temperatures to drop into the mid and upper 20s
across most of the forecast area through early Thursday morning.

An H5 disturbance over British Columbia will be pushed through the
northwesterly flow downstream of the ridge axis and will provide
enough dCVA to develop a surface low across the Central CONUS
through Thursday afternoon, forcing the preceding surface
anticyclone into the southern Plains. As this low develops, surface
flow will turn southwesterly from Kansas into the lower Missouri
River Valley, which will force a warm front back across much of the
forecast area. By Thursday afternoon this will push eastern and
western Missouri back into the lower 50s. North-central to northeast
Missouri will still be in the mid 30s, as the warm front is not
progged to travel that far before the  main low pressure system
comes in and pushes this back southward. During Thursday afternoon,
the mid-level vort maxima associated with this disturbance travels
from Central Iowa toward Northeast Missouri, providing some lift
along the leading edge of the warm front that may be enough to
produce some precipitation. Currently, with temperatures in the
lower to mid 30s, if anything is able to materialize for our
northeastern counties, would most likely be a rain-snow mixture.
Accumulations are still shaping up to be fairly light, perhaps just
a few tenths of an inch. Areas north and northeast of Kirksville
will see stronger mid-level lift support as well as other FGEN
processes to result in more snowfall. If there is not enough
moisture transport into north-central Missouri, our northeast
counties could remain completely dry. Overall ensemble probabilities
for detectable liquid QPF is between 40 and 50 percent, and drops to
under 20 percent for threshold of 0.10 of liquid QPF. Therefore,
yielding at best a few tenths of an inch of snow. Thursday Night
into Friday, another H5 short-wave moves across the Northern Great
Lakes Region while a stronger ridge comes ashore the western CONUS.
Another strong AVA regime takes place across the Central CONUS and
will work to build a strong surface anticyclone across the Northern
Plains and Upper Midwest. This will push another cold airmass toward
the area, continuing the roller coaster of temperatures through this
week.

Heading into Saturday, current deterministic guidance is suggesting
two distinct thermal boundaries moving from the northern Plains into
the lower Missouri Valley, while the low system over the Great Lakes
forces a mid-level vort max back into the area. This is setting up
the potential for another area of convergence for north-central and
northeastern Missouri, which may bring more precipitation potential.
With the colder air coming in, most of this it occurs would likely
be snow. Once again, the stronger forcing is further northeast of
our area, but could bring a few tenths of inch of snow again
Saturday afternoon into the evening. Probabilities for 0.10 inches
of liquid QPF are around 40 to 50 percent for our far northeast.
Again, with that stronger anticyclone moving in, unsure of how much
moisture would actually be available, and surface temperatures
perhaps only reaching the teens. The anticyclone pushes through,
leaving very cold air through the weekend, but flow remains
progressive into next week that sending temperatures back above
freezing for most of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1121 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

The low pressure is slowly moving eastward, which will allow
winds to diminish from the gusts earlier this morning. However,
gusts around 30 kts may remain possible through much of the
afternoon. MVFR ceilings are slowly scattering out. Overcast
skies may return later but bases should remain VFR.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Krull
AVIATION...Krull