335
FXUS63 KEAX 040359
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1059 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures possibly continue into Monday. High
temperatures as much as 12-15 degrees above normal.

- Precipitation chances (40 to 70%) return late Sunday into Monday.

- Cooler, more seasonal temperatures starting Monday for
  northern Missouri and the rest of the forecast area by mid-
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Another day of seasonably warm and dry conditions with broad mid to
upper level ridging currently over the central U.S. and mid to upper
level trough over CA. At the surface, high pressure remains over the
eastern U.S. and a low over the MT/WY border. For the rest of today,
persistent southerly winds as a result of these surface features has
yielded above normal temperatures. High temperatures for today will
mostly stay in the upper 80s, approaching the lower 90s.

For the weekend, the pattern shifts to the east with mid to upper
level ridging moving over the eastern U.S. and the mid to upper
level trough entering the Great Plains Region. At the surface, the
low and its trailing cold front tracks to the east/northeast over
the U.S./Canada border near MN with high pressure remaining off to
our east. An increased pressure gradient coupled with sufficient
mixing during the late mornings/afternoons will allow occasional
gusts of 20-30 mph during daytime heating. Spotty precip chances
mainly for northwestern MO arrive as early as Sunday afternoon out
ahead of the cold front. Better precipitation chances come later
into the overnight hours as the front gets closer to the area.
Severe weather is not expected given weak instability, limited
shear, and a generally unfavorable environment. Shower and storm
chances (40% to 70%) become more widespread during the predawn hours
of Monday with the best chances concentrated near northeast KS and
northwest MO. From the hydro perspective, weak CAPE profiles,
limited moisture, and antecedent dry conditions will stave off any
flooding concerns. PWATs ranging around the 90th to max percentile
suggest there could be a few brief downpours, but high FFG values
highlight the elevated soil capacity for precipitation.

For Monday, models begin to noticeably diverge increasing
uncertainty in the forecast early next week. Ensemble guidance
suggests the surface front stalls out and becomes more diffuse,
lingering around through Tuesday. Where the front stalls out will
significantly impact temperatures. Areas south of the front could
continue to experience above normal temperatures while areas north
could see temperatures closer to seasonal averages. High
temperatures for Monday could possibly range from the low 70s to
upper 80s. Additional chances (30-40%) for showers and storms arrive
Tuesday afternoon/evening as a H500 shortwave moves through the area
providing more lift aloft. By mid-week, the front will have moved
through the area, ushering in a much more seasonal and drier air
mass. Highs for the second half of next week will stay around the
mid 60s to low 80s with a few additional spotty chances for
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1054 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

VFR conditions through the period. Winds are increasing just
above the surface, and will mix down towards the surface after
15Z causing gusty conditions. The wind gust are expected to
decrease towards sunset Saturday evening, but strong winds aloft
will remain potentially creating marginal low level wind shear.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...BT