821
FXUS63 KEAX 122112
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
312 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions continue into the
  weekend. Record high temperatures are possible Friday and
  Saturday with highs in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees for
  portions of the area.

- Elevated fire weather conditions are likely (70%) Saturday
  afternoon ahead of an approaching dry cold front.

- Cooler Sunday, with precipitation chances (40-60%) returning
  Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

A ridge centered to our west will continue to dominate the forecast
for the next several days. This will keep the warm and dry trend
going into the weekend. Highs today will peak into the 60s for most
and even into the low 70s across southern portions of the area.
Thursday will be slightly warmer, though mid and high level clouds
will keep temperatures from rising too much as moisture increases
aloft. The ridge axis will move farther east on Friday, and as warm
air advection ramps up we`ll see highs peak into into the mid to
upper 70s everywhere.

Saturday will mark the beginning of the breakdown of this pattern.
The ridge will be compressed as a trough drops down into the Great
Lakes region. A cold front will follow, expanding much farther south
than any precipitation impacts on Saturday. This dry front will
impact the CWA mid to late afternoon, bringing a sharp northwesterly
wind shift and temperature change as it drops from north to south.
For most locations this is likely to arrive after the diurnal
temperature peak, with highs again reaching the mid to upper 70s, or
generally 15 to 20 degrees above normal for this time of year.
Locations farther north toward the Iowa border will see the frontal
passage earlier, likely leading to a cooler day overall. One thing
to note is the potential for elevated fire weather conditions ahead
of the front as southwesterly winds gust 20 to 25 mph and humidity
drops into the mid 30 percent range. This is most likely (70%)
across eastern Kansas/western Missouri where a nose of drier air
will be mixed down to the surface.

Sunday will be cooler, though with highs still peaking 5 to 10
degrees above normal as the coldest air misses the area to the east.
The next chance of precipitation will come Sunday night into Monday
as the ridge finally begins breaking down. This will occur as a
system sitting off the California coast becomes more progressive and
begins moving onshore. This will eject east toward the Plains Sunday
night, though there still exists quite a bit of uncertainty on how
far this can make it. Regardless, the forecast reflects
precipitation chances increasing (to around 40-60%) by sunrise
Monday, continuing through Monday night. Further out, ensemble
guidance generally favors a more active pattern for next week,
keeping occasional precipitation chances and more seasonable
temperatures across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1111 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast. Winds will be
light through the forecast but shift from light northerly this
afternoon to light southerly tomorrow morning, varying
overnight. High clouds increase through the forecast with
scattered to broken high clouds this evening and overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Myers
AVIATION...CDB