174
FXUS63 KEAX 061720
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1120 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Saturday night`s storm track remains largely north of the forecast
areas. Precipitation possible north of HWY-36 with the most
favorable areas for winter impacts near northeast MO.

- Temperatures look to warm back above normal early next week
  before another system passes by kicking them back toward
  seasonal expectations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

A fairly quiet start to the weekend anticipated as conditions remain
benign for most areas this morning into the evening. With the latent
moisture from the recent snow melt, there is the potential for
patchy fog across the region. The developing southerly flow this
morning may also aid in drawing what is a saturated airmass from
Oklahoma, Kansas and southern Missouri northward into central
Missouri. Observations as 08Z are varying from 3-5 sm across
southern Missouri into southeast KS, but CAM trends suggest this may
become more dense and build north into Bates, Lynn and Henry
counties. If dense fog is able to develop, it will likely hang tough
through much of the morning hours with the low sun angle this time
of year. We will be monitoring these counties closely for the
potential for a dense fog advisory. There may be patchy fog
elsewhere in low lying areas, but expectations are this fog may not
become widespread enough to warrant a headline farther north. As for
high temperatures today, locations north of HWY-36 will range in the
low to upper 30s while areas south of HWY-36 range from upper 30s to
upper 40s. These temperature spreads can be attributed to the warm
front lifting north toward the MO/IA border. Also, there is some
uncertainty with temperatures given the fog impacts as well as how
far north the warm front lifts. Speaking of the warm front, as we
enter the afternoon/evening hours, a H500 shortwave will push a
surface low and warm front towards the MO/IA border, delivering
chances for a variety of precip types going into the predawn hours
of Sunday. Models continue to struggle to agree on precip type
ranging from light rain to light snow and even a few pockets of
light freezing rain.


Model soundings display an unsaturated warm nose which, depending on
surface temperatures, could lead to sprinkles/freezing rain.
However, with surface temperatures expected to be within a degree of
freezing, there is the potential that any freezing rain would be
self limiting with latent heat release. As the warm nose
evaporatively cools, a transition to light snow is possible, but the
dendritic growth zone dries out just as quick transitioning the
favored precipitation type to drizzle. One thing models do agree on,
is the placement for the most favorable location for the precip
(remaining north of HWY-36). The past few HREF model runs have
trended the best chances for precip farther north, closer to the
MO/IA border as that is where the better forcing will be. Guidance
suggests that the system will be filling as it approaches/moves
through our area suggesting precip chances will weaken going into
early Sunday morning. Given the uncertainty with precip type and
amounts, decided to go without a headline for now, but will need to
monitor for the potential for winter precip tonight. Precip chances
begin to taper off by the dawn hours of Sunday.

As a surface high descends from Canada on the backside of the
system, increased northerly windflow (CAA) will allow temperatures
to be much cooler on Sunday than today. Highs for Sunday will range
in the low 20s to upper 30s. Monday morning lows range from the
single digits to upper teens across the area with the coldest
temperatures likely in northern/northeastern MO. Highs for Monday
range around the upper 20s to low 40s. Conditions warm up closer to
seasonal averages on Tuesday as winds shift out of the south out
ahead of an approaching system. A mid to upper level trough will
sink to the southeast out of the northern Great Plains pushing a
surface low and partnering cold front to the north of the area over
MN approaching mid-next week. For now, the best precip chances
remain to our north with a few areas near the MO/IA border seeing
some low-end (below 20%) chances. Another system moves quickly on
its heels for Thursday, bringing much better precip chances
(according to the GFS), however uncertainty exists being this far
out. Temperatures trend cooler for the second half of next week as
multiple troughs keep conditions below seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1120 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Low ceilings and visibility affecting parts of east central KS
and west central MO, should remain south of the MO river,
leaving VFR conditions at MKC, MCI and STJ for the
afternoon/early evening. For IXD, ceiling and visibility
restrictions should start to diminish this afternoon, though
there is uncertainty about timing. Outside of this, a strong
cold front will move south through the region late this
evening/overnight. This will shift winds to the north and lead
to an expansive low stratus deck in the cold advection regime.
Have gone with ceilings at 2K ft AGL but these may need to be
lowered as confidence increases in the cloud bases.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for MOZ038>040-043>046-
     053-054.
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for KSZ057-060.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...CDB