469
FXUS63 KEAX 271713
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1113 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

...18z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool and dry Thanksgiving today.

- Majority of Friday will be dry with a storm system arriving
  Friday night

- Chances for wintry precipitation have expanded. 4-7 inches of
  snow is possible across far NE MO (including the Kirksville
  area). A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for this area.
  Other areas could see 0.5-3 inches of snow.

- Some uncertainties remain with the potential for a shifting
  storm track, and a fine line between light snow and more
  notable accumulating snow, and chances for rain undercutting
  potential snow totals.

- Road travel impacts are likely late Friday through Saturday
  especially along I-35, US-36, and US-65.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Overview

Dry and cool for Thanksgiving day. Temperatures remain below normal
in the low to mid 40s.

Moving on to the expected storm system this weekend. Firstly, much
of the daylight hours Friday remain dry and travel impact free
(locally speaking). The storm system is expected to move in during
the evening and overnight period. Impactful weather is expected to
continue through much of Saturday vacating the area by Saturday
overnight into Sunday. The area of notable accumulating snow has
expanded and looks to encompass areas from Rockport, MO SE through
Moberly and points northeast. Current snowfall forecasts for NW MO
range from 4-7 inches where a Winter Storm Watch has been issued.
Observable road travel impacts are likely along I-35, US-36, and US-
65 in this area. Accumulating snow is becoming more likely across
the area sans the Truman Lake region. Much of this is likely to be
more limited to grassy surfaces as ground temperatures will continue
to be decently warm enough to slow accumulations. General trends
have been moving this system southward thus shifting the axis of
heaviest snow with it.

Detailed Discussion (Confidence, Uncertainties, etc.)

Of course, being the first substantial storm of the year (for us) in
a seasonal transition environment - it`s going to be complicated...
The good news is that vertical profiles keep temperatures from the
surface to 800mb either above or below freezing with limited
oscillations between the 0C isotherm. This keeps precipitation types
fairly simple between rain, a wintry mix of rain, sleet, and snow,
as well as straight snow (read: little chance for freezing
rain/ice).

Satellite imagery shows our culprit system working its way on shore
on the Washington coast. As this wave moves on shore, ridging across
the central CONUS enables steady moisture transport (and some warm
air) across the front range of the Rockies. The upper wave is
expected to flatten out stretching over the Rockies encouraging the
development of a leeward midlevel wave Friday afternoon. Rapid
fronto and cyclogenesis quickly tap into the available moisture pool
and begin developing snow showers across the upper Plains.
Simultaneously, the southern pressure gradient tightens expediting
flow of moisture into the region. By late Friday, the low will have
dug deep enough south to entice the development of showers across
the area. Frontal boundaries are expected to set up with the warm
front somewhere across far northern MO and southern IA, and a cold
front across the western side of the system. The placement of these
frontal boundaries will be critical in anticipated rain/snow amounts.

Confidence is high that this system will likely pass through the
region. Most guidance passes the center of the low through the
southern side of the region. Confidence is also high that we will
see a transition of precipitation throughout the storm`s residency
in the area. As mentioned earlier, vertical profiles do look to stay
fairly stark between rain, wintry mix (rain, sleet, snow), and snow.
Confidence is also growing in accumulating snowfall and potentially
notable accumulations across northeast MO. Model guidance has been
steadily increasing snowfall potential particularly around the
Kirksville area where guidance averages around 5 inches ranging from
3-7 inches of snow anticipated. Areas where 5+ inches of snow are
possible are highlighted in the current Winter Storm Watch. This
does not mean that this area will be upgraded to a warning as
forecasts are updated. Winter weather products will have to be
curated to cover potential impacts from this system, especially
during the upcoming busty travel weekend.

On to the uncertainties, of course, one of the primary uncertainties
is the track of the system. Over the course of the past several
ensemble model guidance runs, the track of the system has been
shifting further south. This has resulted in several things
including increased chances for accumulating snow as well as
increased chances for cooler temperature. One other variable this has
introduced is an invasion of drier air to the norther which might
increase snow liquid ratios which when given the ample moisture
expected in the area, leads to high snowfall totals. This area of
dry air is likely to affect areas north of US-36.

The dynamic nature of the system as it progress across the area is
another factor that could significantly affect perception totals.
The warm front deviating north or south, the cold front arriving
later or earlier, will greatly affect snow potential. If the front
moves too far north, we will experience more warm air, rain, and
thus lower snow totals. If it does not move north enough, more
snowfall is likely, and there is a chance that far NW MO could see
even more snow than forecasted.

For the KC metro, most precipitation is expected to be rain. The
best chance for snow for the KC metro and points south is expected
on the backside of the cold front in which precipitation is expected
to transition to snow. Accumulations are expected to remain under
an inch with most accumulations expected on grassy surfaces. Ground
temperatures are expected to remain decently warm cutting into snow
totals. That said, a tenth of a half an inch of snow is not out of
the question. Of course, the deviations mentioned before in the
forecast discussion will play a critical role in the amount of rain
and/or snow the KC metro might experience.

Looking further, tomorrow`s system is expected to vacate the area by
Sunday morning. Another system moves through the region Monday, but
several uncertainties remain with this subsequent system. Just
between yesterday`s run and today`s the system has shifted
precipitation from south of I-70 to north of I-70. Much of this
fluctuation is likely due to how ensemble members are handling the
previous system and the synoptic resolution of its passing. As the
high resolution short term picture comes into range today, the
extended picture will gain some clarity.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1111 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

The proverbial calm before the storm so to speak. Quiet, VFR
conditions will prevail across the area through this TAF period.
Light/variable winds prevail much of the time with surface high
pressure in the area, eventually giving way to increasing SE
winds late in the period. Peeking into latter portions of
Friday... MVFR conditions look poised to return as ceilings drop
and precipitation chances increase around/after 00z Sat.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through late Saturday
     night for MOZ003-005>008-015>017-024-025.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...Curtis