743
FXUS63 KEAX 261730
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1130 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

...18z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds continue with gusts around 20-25 MPH,
  isolated 30+ MPH expected.
- Dry and below normal temperatures continue through the
  Thanksgiving holiday.
- Confidence is increasing in impactful weather for the weekend
  after Thanksgiving. Rain, mixed precipitation, and snow are
  possible. Both road and air travel are likely to be impacted.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 417 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Water vapor imagery continues to show a compact low pressure
system working its way to the east. This system opened the gates
for strong cold air advection from interior Canada. Much of this
advection could be felt overnight as winds remained fairly stout
around 10-15 MPH with pre-sunset gusts approaching 30-40 MPH. As
this system exits the region, winds settle back down; however,
gusts around 20-25 MPH persist as midlevel flow mixes to the
surface. Cold air remains in place with highs today only
reaching the low to mid 40s, which are below seasonal averages.
Ridging build through the afternoon and evening keeping sunshine
around and maintaining the flow of cold air into the region. A
weak perturbation in the flow might develop some flurries across
central KS, but these are expected to remain west and south of
our area. Dry and cool conditions are expected to continue
through the Thanksgiving holiday.

Another strong compact system is expected to move on shore in
the Pacific northwest on Thanksgiving Day. This system will act
as the catalyst for a pattern shift into more wintry weather
starting Friday lasting into early next week. On Friday, the
synoptic trough begins to traverse the Rocky Mountains sparking
off a lee trough which taps into the flow of moisture and
relatively warmer air setup up by the ridge ahead of it. This
results in a large shield of precipitation forming around the
frontal boundaries starting first across the upper Midwest,
where snow is likely to develop, followed by more filling in
across the southern CONUS as the storm matures. Ensemble
guidance continues to favor much of the area being in the warm
sector of this cyclone as temperatures in the 40s creep toward
the US-36 corridor. North of that, lower temperatures favor the
development of accumulating snow across far northeast MO.
Ensemble guidance members have been gradually increasing mean
snow total with most members averaging out to around 2-3 inches
of snow across the spread. Temperature forecasts have been
sliding slightly lower with each successive model run; so, it
tracks that snowfall totals might increase. With that, it is
looking more likely that points south and west of the
accumulating snow will see snowfall; however, temperatures look
to remain warm enough to limit the ability of snow to
accumulate.

Confidence is increasing in general travel impacts for the post-
Thanksgiving holiday travel period. While snowfall coverage
looks to be fairly limited at this point, rain and wintry mix
will likely cause driving difficulties and could impact inbound
and outbound air travel. Precipitation is expected to increase
Saturday with the primary uncertainty being the location of the
warm ad cold sectors of the storm. The synoptic picture looks to
show the center of the system moving through the KC Metro which
puts the warm front up towards the Kirksville area with the cold
side residing north and west near Omaha. As the cold side of the
system progresses through the region Saturday afternoon, it
would not be surprising to see some snowfall and even potential
accumulation on grassy areas. Ensemble guidance puts >0.1 inch
snow accumulations at around 20% for the KC metro and 40% for
the greater St. Joseph metroplex. Precipitation rolls out of the
area Saturday evening yielding a dry, cold Sunday where any
travel disruptions from Friday and Saturday could rectify.

Extended model guidance throws out another chance for snow
Monday. Another wave looks to move through bringing chances for
snowfall across southern KS extending into MO along and south of
I-70. The synoptic pattern looks to be much more favorable for
pure snowfall. Deterministic guidance paints a potential of 1-2
inches of snow with this band; however, many uncertainties
remain, especially because long range deterministic guidance is
heavily affected by short term fluctuations. Ensemble guidance
is not quite as bullish with location and snowfall predictions
which makes sense as the suite of model members put out a wide
range of scenarios. Beyond Monday, guidance places several more
waves in the flow keeping the pattern active. The southern
boundary of the polar air mass looks to settle across the Ozarks
and Ohio Valley firmly establishing a pattern shift towards
winter.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1128 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Currently gusty NW winds will gradually ease through the day
today. By or just a bit after 00z this evening, winds will ease
back to around 5kts across the sites, but largely remain out of
the NW. A mid-level cloud deck (8-10kft or so) will glide
through, and is not expected to produce anything other than said
cloud cover. Takeaway... VFR conditions expected throughout this
period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Curtis