Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
849
FXUS64 KEPZ 172324
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
524 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 522 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026
- Breezy through the evening hours, with some variably gusty
winds along east and north facing mountain slopes overnight as
well. Winds will return Monday morning, generally 20 to 30 mph
with some gusts 40 to 45 mph at times. A few gusts around 50
mph will be possible in the Sacramento Mountains, especially
later tonight into Monday morning.
- Critical fire weather conditions through Monday due to strong
winds and very low humidity. Red Flag Warnings in effect for
most of New Mexico and West Texas.
- Lighter winds, but still breezy conditions during the
afternoons Tuesday through the rest of the week. While some low
level moisture will try to work in from the east during the
overnights, the chance for showers and thunderstorms will
mainly be focused east of the area.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1216 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026
Deepening longwave trough over the Pacific Northwest is carving
deeper into the Great Basin thanks to a shortwave trough moving
across Nevada. This shortwave will move into western Colorado by
tomorrow morning, before lifting into the Central Plains Monday
evening.
This system will bring us continued dry southwesterly flow aloft,
and a period of breezy to windy west-southwest winds from this
afternoon into Monday.
Winds will continue to ramp up this afternoon, then diminish for
most areas after sunset. But winds may actually increase east of
the Franklin and Organ Mountains after dark, when diminish again
after midnight. Breezy and gusty winds will return by mid-morning,
after just a little bit of mixing. Up in the Sacramentos and Gila,
expect some variability with wind speeds overnight, not
necessarily following the same timing as the Franklins and Organs
(see fire weather discussion for more).
Some patchy blowing dust can`t be ruled out later this afternoon
or early evening, but so far nothing is noted on satellite
imagery, and we have a clear view today.
Going forward, a backdoor cold front will drop down the Plains in
the wake of the trough Monday night into Tuesday, scraping the
eastern slopes of the Sacramentos, but not pushing any further
west. Most of our area will remain in south to southwest flow on
Tuesday, with temperatures remaining in the mid-80s to lower-90s,
pretty close to seasonal norms.
The backdoor front will wash out and merge with the dryline by
Tuesday night, and increasing convection chances in the Trans
Pecos region mid-week will produce some outflow that`ll try to
slosh the dryline into the far eastern reaches of our CWA
Wednesday morning, and again Thursday morning. But the moisture
will be shallow, and will quickly mix-out to the east, keeping
precip chances well east of El Paso. There are some mentionable
PoPs in our far eastern fringes Wednesday and Thursday, but this
is beyond our locally-produced forecast period of Days 1-3.
Breezy west to southwest winds will be common each afternoon,
typical for this time of year. The westerlies look to gain the
upper hand again late in the week, pushing the dryline even
further to the east. Temperatures look like they`ll stay in the
mid-80s to lower-90s across the lowlands through the period,
without much day-to-day variability.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026
VFR conditions expected through the period with persistent gusty
winds. Winds generally out of the west-southwest at 15-20 knots
with gusts to 25-30 knots through the evening and early overnight
hours. Winds will decrease slightly after 09Z with the potential
for LLWS for KELP and KDMN. Winds will increase again during the
mid morning and afternoon hours on Monday. Skies will be SKC.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1216 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026
Winds have been slowly increasing across the area this afternoon,
with some downslope enhancement in places, and blockages in
others. Winds aloft will increase tonight. For the Sacramento
Mountains, high-res model runs and Wind Ninja indicate winds will
diminish for a few hours after sunset, and become rather variable
with direction. On the Seven Cabins fire, light ESE winds may
actually develop along the NE flank of the Capitan Ridge, with WSW
winds persisting elsewhere, and stronger SW winds along the
ridgetop. But between Midnight and 2 AM, strong SW downslope flow
looks to return, and Red Flag conditions are likely to return to
favored downslope regions. The Fire Weather Watch has been
upgraded to a Red Flag Warning, and in the Sacramento zone, there
is no break from today`s RFW, though the lull and variability
between sunset and midnight is noted.
Gusty winds will return by mid-morning across the wider area, and
Red Flag Warnings are in effect for much of the day Monday across
the remainder of the area, except for Hudspeth County, as winds
there look to taper off very quickly as you head south and east of
El Paso.
A backdoor cold front dropping down the Plains on Tuesday won`t
push west of the higher terrain, but will interrupt and weaken the
pressure gradient a bit. We`ll see the winds diminish as a result,
though SSW winds will remain breezy in far SW New Mexico, with
some gusts around 25-30 mph for a few hours in the late afternoon.
Dryline sloshing will try to bring east winds and enhanced
moisture into far eastern areas each morning through the middle of
the week, but thunderstorm chances look to stay out over the
eastern Plains of New Mexico and the Transpecos Region in Texas.
Breezy SW winds will continue in the afternoon, strongest to the
west of the Rio Grande, and flirting with, but likely falling
short of the lower end of Red Flag criteria through Friday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 67 90 65 91 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 60 88 61 90 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 57 85 55 87 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 58 86 57 89 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 48 63 47 66 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 59 84 54 86 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 50 76 48 79 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 57 88 54 91 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 50 83 50 86 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 64 88 62 90 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 56 89 55 93 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 60 96 60 96 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 54 82 55 84 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 64 93 63 95 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 63 87 60 90 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 63 87 61 89 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 53 85 51 89 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 57 87 52 90 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 60 88 60 92 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 57 85 55 88 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 50 75 47 79 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 48 73 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 43 71 43 76 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 47 75 44 79 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 56 81 52 84 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 55 84 50 87 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 35 75 32 79 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 49 80 48 83 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 47 82 44 86 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 40 77 38 81 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 52 79 51 83 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 54 84 51 87 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 56 83 54 88 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 56 83 53 88 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 49 77 47 81 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Texas Fire
Weather Zone 055 El Paso County.
Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM MDT Monday for Texas Fire
Weather Zone 055 El Paso County.
NM...Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT tonight for South Central
Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest
Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest
Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.
Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM MDT Monday for South Central
Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest
Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest
Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.
Red Flag Warning until 11 PM MDT Monday for Capitan and
Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...38-Rogers