Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
913 FXUS64 KEPZ 192340 AAA AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM Issued by National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 540 PM MDT Wed Aug 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 535 PM MDT Wed Aug 19 2026 - Above normal temperatures across southern New Mexico and far west Texas through the week ahead. Lowland highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s, which will approach daily records. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon through Friday, limited mostly to the high terrain and western New Mexico. Mostly dry conditions spread area wide over the weekend and into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1230 PM MDT Wed Aug 19 2026 A 596 dam upper high at 500 mb is currently centered over northern AZ. Recycled moisture of PWATS between 0.8 to 1 inch combined with daytime heating will result in scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon across the Gila and Sacramento Mountains with a general storm motion to the west-southwest across nearby lower elevations heading into the early evening hours. Any storm across the higher terrain will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall of 1 to 1.5 inches, which could result in flash flooding on area burn scars and low lying and poor drainage areas. The rest of southern New Mexico and far West Texas will be hot and mainly dry with high temperatures topping out in the upper 90s to low 100s. These high temperatures will threaten daily records. A mostly carbon copy expected across the area Thursday and Friday as the 500 mb high pivots east to over the Four Corners Thursday and over the CO/NM border Friday. Storm motion will go from west- southwest Thursday to west-northwest Friday. Storm coverage across the Gila and Sacramento Mountains becomes pretty minimal this weekend into early next week due to drier mid level air moving into the area from the east. The 500 mb high will be over eastern NM and West TX this weekend before pivoting back west to over central NM next week. As a result, the heat will be the main story with high temperatures continuing to be in the upper 90s to low 100s across the lowlands and 80s to low 90s across the higher terrain. This will challenge daily records areawide. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 535 PM MDT Wed Aug 19 2026 Shower and thunderstorm activity has mostly moved southward off the Gila NF and southwest mountains of NM. Gusty and erratic winds have pushed southward along I-10 but have mostly stayed west of KDMN. A PROB30 remains at KTCS for gusty wind potential from storms just north of there thru 02Z. Conditions calm thru the night into Thursday morning scattered to numerous afternoon storms threaten locally IFR/MVFR conditions mainly for terminals north of the I-10 corridor and west of the Sacramento Mts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1230 PM MDT Wed Aug 19 2026 No critical fire weather conditions expected through early next week. Scattered thunderstorms development across the Gila and Sacramento Mountains each afternoon and early evening through Friday with a general motion to the west-southwest today and tomorrow and to the west-northwest Friday into nearby lower elevations. Gusty and erratic outflow winds along with brief downpours and frequent lightning are expected with any storm. Meanwhile, mainly dry with near record high temperatures across the lowlands. Minimal storm coverage across the Gila and Sacramento Mountains this weekend into early next week as the upper high moves over eastern New Mexico and West Texas this weekend before pivoting back west to over central New Mexico next week. Fair to good ventilation today and tomorrow before becoming good to very good Friday into early next week. Minimum relative humidity values in the mid teens across the lowlands and 20s across the higher terrain. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 73 102 75 102 / 0 10 0 0 Sierra Blanca 67 102 67 98 / 0 10 0 0 Las Cruces 69 100 70 102 / 10 10 0 0 Alamogordo 71 100 71 98 / 0 20 0 10 Cloudcroft 54 76 54 76 / 10 50 10 50 Truth or Consequences 72 100 72 99 / 20 10 20 0 Silver City 63 90 63 93 / 10 50 10 10 Deming 69 101 71 101 / 10 10 10 0 Lordsburg 69 99 69 100 / 10 20 10 0 West El Paso Metro 75 102 77 102 / 0 10 0 0 Dell City 70 104 71 101 / 0 10 0 0 Fort Hancock 74 105 75 104 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 70 97 70 95 / 0 10 0 0 Fabens 72 103 73 102 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 71 100 73 100 / 0 10 0 0 White Sands HQ 75 103 76 101 / 0 20 0 0 Jornada Range 71 102 72 100 / 10 20 10 0 Hatch 71 102 71 103 / 10 20 10 0 Columbus 74 101 75 102 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 69 103 70 99 / 0 20 0 0 Mayhill 59 88 59 88 / 10 30 0 20 Mescalero 58 86 57 87 / 10 50 10 50 Timberon 57 89 56 85 / 0 30 0 30 Winston 62 91 62 90 / 20 30 20 20 Hillsboro 69 97 69 98 / 10 20 20 0 Spaceport 69 100 69 99 / 10 30 10 0 Lake Roberts 58 89 58 91 / 10 50 10 50 Hurley 64 93 65 96 / 10 30 10 10 Cliff 66 95 66 100 / 10 50 10 10 Mule Creek 64 93 64 96 / 10 60 10 10 Faywood 67 95 68 95 / 10 30 20 0 Animas 70 99 70 101 / 10 10 20 0 Hachita 69 99 69 99 / 0 10 10 0 Antelope Wells 68 98 69 99 / 0 0 10 0 Cloverdale 65 93 66 94 / 10 10 20 10 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...99-Guest