Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
676 FXUS64 KEPZ 092321 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 421 PM MST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 412 PM MST Tue Dec 9 2025 - No significant weather impacts are expected through next week. - Dry conditions, typical afternoon breezes, and a gradual warming trend will occur this week with near record highs possible Thursday and Friday. - A back door cold front will bring some breezy to windy conditions to the region Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 956 AM MST Tue Dec 9 2025 A continued quiet weather pattern for the Borderland. The region will remain under a dry northwest flow through Saturday with high temperatures well above normal and even some near records possible going into Thu/Fri. Overnight lows will continue to fall off into the 20s and 30s across the area with some 40s for mainly eastern slope locations by late in the week as it looks like westerly surface winds will stay up enough to keep areas like east El Paso warmer. The only somewhat impactful feature will be a back door cold front that the models have held onto moving in Sat night into Sun. Looks The main impact will be some breezy to windy conditions behind it, mainly on the western mountain slopes. Could see gusts over 30 mph and sustained winds along the I-10 corridor of 10-20 mph during the day Sunday. NBM winds seemed way too low and did raise up about 5-10 mph. Temperatures behind the front will drop about 5-8 degrees out west and about 15 degrees out east. A weak upper trough meanders in early next week and will allow temps to warm up around 5 degrees. Some disagreement in models with how much low level moisture can be drawn up ahead of this feature which would mainly just have an effect on overnight lows. For now will stick close to NBM. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 412 PM MST Tue Dec 9 2025 VMC expected through the period with skies SKC to FEW250. Winds SW/W at 7-12 knots through the remainder of the afternoon and early evening, becoming generally light and VRB after sunset. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 956 AM MST Tue Dec 9 2025 Warm and dry weather continues through the forecast period. Winds will generally be under 15 mph but could get a little gusty at times on mountain peaks. With temperatures warming into the 60s and even some lower 70s by Thu, RH`s will fall into the mid teens to upper 20s. A back door cold front is expected to drop temps 5-15 degrees for Sunday, but gusty east winds will move through the area Saturday night into Sunday morning. Vent rates will be poor to low end fair the next couple of days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 68 39 71 42 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 62 32 67 40 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 64 34 70 37 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 66 33 69 36 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 48 36 54 36 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 65 36 68 39 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 66 42 69 45 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 69 33 72 36 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 68 35 69 38 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 66 37 69 40 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 66 29 70 35 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 69 34 73 37 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 61 37 63 40 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 68 34 70 39 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 65 34 69 37 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 66 41 69 44 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 66 30 69 33 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 68 32 71 35 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 68 36 71 39 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 64 32 66 35 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 56 36 69 40 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 59 32 64 35 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 56 28 62 31 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 62 30 69 33 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 64 38 70 41 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 65 30 68 33 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 68 28 70 27 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 66 37 70 40 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 69 31 70 29 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 66 29 68 29 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 65 37 69 40 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 69 34 71 37 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 67 32 71 35 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 69 35 73 38 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 66 40 70 43 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...38-Rogers