Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
363
FXUS64 KEPZ 301751
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1151 AM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1150 AM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025
- Continued daily thunderstorms Monday through Thursday, with
the best chances for rain east of the Rio Grande Valley. Monday
and Tuesday could see the best coverage for storms promoting
heavy rainfall and local flooding.
- Drier air moves in for Friday through Sunday.
- Temperatures below normal through Friday, then warming back to
above normal Saturday and Sunday with some areas reaching 100
degrees again along the Rio Grande Valley.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1150 AM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025
A push of easterly winds this morning has brought dew points back
up into the l/m 60s out east with areas toward the AZ border
getting to around 50. Some weak disturbances moving around Four
Corners high will trigger typical mountain storms by early
afternoon and storms pushing SSW into the evening. Gusty winds and
locally heavy rain will be the main threats. There is also an
inverted trough sitting through Hudspeth county and into the TX
Panhandle. This feature will be the focus for precipitation going
into tonight and into Wed. The inverted trough will be slowly
moving westward and provide the lift for showers and thunderstorms
to develop. HRRR even has a nice round of storms moving through TX
counties after midnight then another round around midday Tuesday.
I like the Tue depiction of activity with the HRRR given the
pattern. Wind profiles with 10-20KT easterly flow through about
H70 then weak winds aloft can lead to locally heavy rain and
flooding, but the question out east is will morning cloud cover
limit instability and bring just a more light to moderate
stratiform rain. For that reason, after collaborating with
neighbors, will hold off on a Flood Watch for now. Temperatures
Tuesday will range from the mid to upper 70s out east to near 90
out west.
The trough continues to move west into Wednesday. The GFS is now
washing it out by 18Z while the EC continues to hold onto this
feature centered right near the RGV. Either way, there will be
some lift around and with PW`s getting into the 1.1"-1.6" range
and a continued favorable wind profile, there will be another
round of precipitation, more likely areawide. May need a watch for
Wed if everything comes together. As we progress into Thu, the
inverted trough does get washed out as a Pacific trough similar to
last week approaches. This, combined with the lingering moisture,
will bring another good chance for precipitation areawide with
drier air pushing in by late in the day out west. Did raise PoPs
with the upper trough pushing through. Even a little shear
developing into the afternoon as the WSW flow aloft moves in.
Instability not great, but maybe we can get a couple severe
storms.
Drier air will be in place for Fri-Sat and temperatures warm back
up into the mid 90s to around 100 for the lowlands. Models hinting
at just enough moisture around the far SW and SE edges of the CWA
for a storm or two, but will remain isolated in coverage. Upper
high becomes fairly well established over northern NM on all the
models, but the low level flow will once again tap Gulf moisture
from the southeast and bring a return to some thunderstorm
chances.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 AM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025
Another day of afternoon thunderstorms developing over the
mountains and then pushing onto the lowlands by late afternoon and
early evening. Wind gusts over 40KTS will be possible, especially
at KDMN, the wind gusts will also bring areas of blowing dust.
Going into the overnight hours, areas of showers and a few
thunderstorms will move into Hudspeth, El Paso and southeastern
Otero counties. Clouds generally FEW-SCT060-080 SCT-BKN200-250
through the evening with some lower clouds of SCT-BKN040-060
BKN080-100 over eastern areas. Winds east to southeast at 5-15KTS
with some gusts to 25KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1150 AM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025
Moisture will remain in place through Thursday with a daily chance
for showers and thunderstorms. Some areas will see some locally
heavy rain. Temperatures will be below normal during this time as
well. Drier west to northwest flow will move in for Fri-Sun with
isolated thunderstorm coverage at best over far southern areas.
Temperatures over the lowlands will get back into the mid 90s to
around 100 dropping RH`s into the mid teens and 20s.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 70 85 68 85 / 20 50 50 40
Sierra Blanca 63 75 63 78 / 60 70 50 70
Las Cruces 65 84 63 84 / 30 40 50 30
Alamogordo 64 84 62 83 / 30 60 50 50
Cloudcroft 47 59 47 62 / 40 60 50 70
Truth or Consequences 66 86 64 86 / 40 40 50 50
Silver City 60 81 57 80 / 40 60 50 70
Deming 68 87 65 87 / 50 40 40 40
Lordsburg 68 89 67 89 / 30 30 40 60
West El Paso Metro 69 84 68 85 / 20 50 50 40
Dell City 66 76 64 82 / 50 70 50 60
Fort Hancock 69 85 67 85 / 50 80 50 70
Loma Linda 62 77 60 77 / 30 60 50 50
Fabens 69 85 66 85 / 30 60 50 40
Santa Teresa 67 84 66 84 / 30 50 50 40
White Sands HQ 69 84 67 84 / 30 50 50 40
Jornada Range 65 84 63 83 / 30 40 50 50
Hatch 66 85 65 86 / 40 40 50 50
Columbus 69 88 67 87 / 40 30 40 30
Orogrande 66 82 63 81 / 30 50 50 50
Mayhill 53 68 54 70 / 50 70 60 70
Mescalero 53 71 53 72 / 40 60 50 70
Timberon 51 69 50 69 / 40 60 50 80
Winston 53 78 53 77 / 50 60 50 70
Hillsboro 60 84 59 84 / 50 50 50 70
Spaceport 63 83 62 85 / 40 40 50 50
Lake Roberts 54 82 54 81 / 40 70 60 80
Hurley 61 84 58 84 / 40 60 50 70
Cliff 59 87 62 88 / 30 60 40 70
Mule Creek 57 85 60 85 / 20 50 40 70
Faywood 63 82 60 82 / 50 60 50 70
Animas 68 90 67 90 / 30 30 40 60
Hachita 66 86 63 87 / 40 30 40 60
Antelope Wells 66 86 64 88 / 20 30 40 60
Cloverdale 65 84 63 85 / 30 30 50 70
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch through this evening for East Slopes Sacramento
Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500
Feet-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz