Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
602 FXUS64 KEPZ 220440 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1040 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1100 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain on Saturday. Thunderstorm chances will diminish rapidly this weekend as upper level high pressure builds closer to the area. - Above normal temperatures across southern New Mexico and far west Texas through the week ahead. Lowland highs will be in the upper 90s to lower 100s, which will approach daily records. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1100 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 High pressure aloft centered over the Southern Rockies will be the primary driver of our weather pattern over the next several days. Thunderstorm development through the weekend will be driven by recycled moisture under this upper high, with less and less coverage each day as drier air moves in. The main headline will be above normal temperatures, which looks to stay in place through the rest of August. Lowland highs consistently in the 98-102 degree range will run 8-10 degrees above normal for late August and near daily records. Currently no daily record for El Paso in the forecast, but were only 1-2 degrees off most days going forward. Earlier this evening we saw isolated showers and thunderstorms across southwest New Mexico. Sounding PWs were 1.0-1.1, with barely enough instability (400-800 J/kg), and a mix of convective temperature/terrain forcing. Storms were quite weak, with 10-20% coverage over the lowlands and more notable winners being the southwestern rim of the Sacramento Mountain and southern Black Range. For Saturday, expect more of this weak convective activity, only another tick lower in coverage. Lowland chances fall below 5%, especially for the I-10 corridor. Any storms that do form will favor the high elevations, popping around noon and diminishing prior to sunset. Best chances will focus over Grant County. Storms will be capable of brief downpours and gusty winds up to 45 mph. Sunday will be even drier, with very spotty mountain showers and almost no action for lowland zones. Upper high drifts east directly over the Southern High Plains into early next week, leading to a near-total shut off of moisture flow and the end of storm chances area wide. Precipitable water values 0.8-1.0 will fall below the climate normals and strong (and very warm) subsident flow within the 400-600mb layer aloft will hinder updraft development. The primary monsoonal plume will be pushed west across Arizona and the Colorado River valley. This pattern looks to remain in place through next week, leading to an extended period of late-August dryness and heat. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1100 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Skies FEW-SCT150 overnight with surface winds 030-070 at 4 to 8 knots. Mostly clear skies after sunrise on Saturday, generally SKC for developing TCU over mountain by 18Z. Isolated TS across SW NM between 19-23Z tomorrow, likely not affecting TAF sites. No mention of TS in this forecast due to low confidence in direct impacts. Prevailing surface winds 100-140 at 8 to 12 knots tomorrow. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1200 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain again today will run into a less favorable environment as they drift towards the lowlands. Above normal temperatures will continue through the weekend, with an overall drying trend from Saturday as the upper ridge squashes convection chances area-wide. With the hot/dry spell, ERCs are forecast to climb towards the 75th percentile next week. Min RHs will range from 12-20% for the lowlands through Sat, then 10-15%; 20-35% for mtns through Sat, then 15-25%. Vent rates will be good to very good. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 76 101 75 100 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 68 97 66 96 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 70 99 69 99 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 70 98 70 99 / 0 10 0 0 Cloudcroft 53 75 52 76 / 0 20 0 0 Truth or Consequences 72 98 71 98 / 10 10 10 0 Silver City 65 92 64 92 / 10 20 30 0 Deming 72 100 71 100 / 10 0 0 0 Lordsburg 72 100 71 99 / 10 10 10 0 West El Paso Metro 77 101 76 100 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 71 100 69 100 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 75 104 74 103 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 69 94 68 94 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 74 102 73 101 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 74 100 73 99 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 75 100 74 100 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 71 99 70 99 / 10 0 0 0 Hatch 72 102 71 102 / 10 0 0 0 Columbus 76 101 74 100 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 70 98 68 98 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 58 88 57 89 / 0 10 0 0 Mescalero 57 86 56 87 / 0 20 0 0 Timberon 56 85 55 86 / 10 10 0 0 Winston 62 89 61 90 / 10 20 20 10 Hillsboro 69 97 69 97 / 10 10 10 0 Spaceport 70 98 68 98 / 10 0 10 0 Lake Roberts 59 90 58 91 / 10 40 30 10 Hurley 67 95 66 95 / 0 10 20 0 Cliff 68 99 66 100 / 10 20 30 0 Mule Creek 66 96 64 96 / 10 20 30 10 Faywood 68 94 68 94 / 10 10 20 0 Animas 71 100 70 99 / 10 0 10 0 Hachita 71 99 70 98 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 70 99 69 98 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 68 95 66 93 / 0 0 10 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt