Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
149
FXUS64 KEPZ 282023
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
223 PM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026
...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 220 PM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026
- Moisture from tropical remnants of Polo will bring more
widespread showers and thunderstorms to the Borderland tonight.
Storms will be capable of heavy rain, gusty winds, and flash
flooding, especially over locations that have already received
heavy rain in recent weeks.
- New rain amounts around 2 inches across much of southern New
Mexico, with localized areas receiving 3 to 4 inches. A Flood
Watch is in effect into Wednesday morning.
- Wind Advisory in effect Tuesday through Wednesday morning
focusing over far west Texas and Otero county.
- Drier weather expected Thursday through the weekend as the
moisture is pushed eastward. Temperatures remaining cool into
next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026
Starting to see the beginning portions of our heavy rain event
coming together early this afternoon. Showers and embedded
thunderstorms ongoing but will just expand in coverage after around
6PM tonight. Tonight we`ll start pushing in a lot of tropical
moisture. For reference, PW values look to increase upwards of 1.6"
by late tonight. This would be a record breaking moisture surge as
the 90th percentile this time of year should be around 1" with a
maximum reading of 1.3". Thankfully storms will be moving at a good
clip with storm motions at 20-30 mph but with heavy rainfall that
occurred not even a week ago will only add to the flood threat.
Storms will be moving but extreme moisture content in the air will
allow storms to be efficient rain makers with the potential for
storms to run over an area multiple times leading to flash flooding.
All locations are expected to see rain during the overnight hours
tonight and rain will continue through much of the day Tuesday
before tapering off after sunset tomorrow. In response to the
approaching tropical remnants coupled with the upper low, winds will
become noticeably breezy. Sustained winds of 20-35 mph expected with
stronger wind up to 60 mph. Heavy rainfall coupled with breezy winds
may knock over trees. Bulk shear values will be plentiful at 40-50kt
Tuesday afternoon which may give some organization to thunderstorms.
Heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding will be the main impact but
even a tornado or two will be possible. Hurricanes are notorious for
helping give spin in the atmosphere and models are suggesting some
curved hodographs and helicity. SPC has added a 2 percent tornado
risk encompassing Hudspeth, El Paso, and Otero counties. If a
tornado does occur, it will be weak and short lived.
Showers largely move out of the area late Tuesday and early
Wednesday morning. The center of the upper low will cross west to
east over central NM through the day Wednesday. Low end rain showers
possible in the Gila region and Sacramento Mtns with even more
isolated showers elsewhere through the day Wednesday. The upper low
slowly tries to lift out of the area but lingering energy looks to
stay behind. A backdoor cold front looks to try and push in late
Thursday and early Friday but will only shave off a few degrees from
Thursdays highs compared to Friday. Some breezier east winds
possible with the front. Much of the weekend looks mostly dry but
more rain chances possible early next week?
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 AM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026
Showers with embedded thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning
but this is the beginning of the heavy rain event we`re expecting.
Storm coverage will expand all across the area after 00Z tonight
with persistent light to moderate rainfall throughout the day
tomorrow. Expect some breezy winds at KTCS this afternoon.
Breezier conditions for all sites expected tomorrow morning and
into the afternoon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 220 PM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026
Low fire weather concerns through the week ahead. Today`s the
beginning of another round of heavy rain. Rain will be seen all
across the forecast area this evening and especially into the
overnight hours. Continued rain showers with embedded thunderstorms
will continue into Tuesday but will start tapering off late Tuesday
and into Wednesday. One last quick round of showers expected
Wednesday morning over the Gila region and then spreading to more
areawide showers during the day Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday and
into the weekend.
Min RHS Tuesday will be 60-80% in the lowlands and 90-100% in the
mountains. Drier conditions Wednesday will dip RHs to 45-50% in the
lowlands and 70-85% in the mountains. RHs will stay in the 35-45%
range across the lowlands and 60-70% in the mountains Thursday and
through the weekend.
20 foot winds will become breezy and gusty tomorrow mostly for far
west TX and Otero counties. Winds will be out of the south at 15-25
mph with gusts to 45 mph possible. High terrain areas will stay
quite breezy Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning. Winds will be
breezy across the area Wednesday afternoon out of the west at 15-20
mph. A front looks to push into the area late Thursday and into
early Friday bringing breezy east winds to the area.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 66 79 60 74 / 80 100 60 10
Sierra Blanca 62 80 59 72 / 90 70 60 20
Las Cruces 63 73 55 70 / 90 100 70 10
Alamogordo 63 75 56 71 / 90 100 60 40
Cloudcroft 49 56 42 50 / 90 100 80 50
Truth or Consequences 62 70 54 70 / 90 100 80 20
Silver City 58 65 49 63 / 100 100 70 50
Deming 62 74 53 72 / 90 90 70 10
Lordsburg 62 72 53 69 / 90 90 80 20
West El Paso Metro 66 79 60 74 / 90 100 50 10
Dell City 65 82 61 75 / 80 90 60 20
Fort Hancock 68 88 64 81 / 90 80 50 20
Loma Linda 61 74 55 67 / 90 90 60 20
Fabens 66 84 61 77 / 90 90 60 20
Santa Teresa 64 77 58 72 / 80 100 60 10
White Sands HQ 64 76 58 72 / 80 90 60 10
Jornada Range 63 73 55 71 / 90 90 80 10
Hatch 64 75 55 73 / 100 90 80 10
Columbus 64 76 57 74 / 80 80 40 10
Orogrande 63 75 56 70 / 90 80 50 10
Mayhill 55 67 48 64 / 90 100 80 20
Mescalero 54 66 47 60 / 100 100 80 60
Timberon 52 63 47 58 / 100 100 60 40
Winston 55 64 46 64 / 100 100 80 20
Hillsboro 60 71 53 71 / 100 100 80 10
Spaceport 61 71 53 70 / 90 90 80 10
Lake Roberts 54 64 46 62 / 100 100 70 50
Hurley 58 68 50 66 / 90 100 70 30
Cliff 61 71 54 69 / 100 100 90 60
Mule Creek 57 66 50 65 / 90 90 90 60
Faywood 60 68 51 66 / 90 100 70 10
Animas 63 74 54 72 / 80 100 70 10
Hachita 61 73 53 71 / 80 90 50 10
Antelope Wells 62 74 54 72 / 80 90 60 10
Cloverdale 59 68 52 67 / 90 100 80 10
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through late Tuesday night for Eastern/Central El
Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio
Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-
Southern Hudspeth Highlands-Western El Paso County.
Wind Advisory from noon Tuesday to 9 AM MDT Wednesday for
Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth
Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El
Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern
Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands-
Western El Paso County.
NM...Flood Watch through late Tuesday night for Central Grant
County/Silver City Area-East Central Tularosa
Basin/Alamogordo-East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below
7500 Feet-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Lowlands of the
Bootheel-Northern Dona Ana County-Otero Mesa-Sacramento
Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Sierra County Lakes-Southeast
Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-
Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region
Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River
Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Uplands of the
Bootheel-Upper Gila River Valley-West Central Tularosa
Basin/White Sands-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below
7500 Feet.
Wind Advisory from noon Tuesday to 9 AM MDT Wednesday for East
Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-East Slopes Sacramento
Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa-Sacramento Mountains
Above 7500 Feet-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana
County/Mesilla Valley-West Central Tularosa Basin/White
Sands-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...37-Slusher