Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
101 FXUS64 KEPZ 240440 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 940 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 859 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025 - Dry with seasonable temperatures for Monday through Thanksgiving. - We will see a slow cooling trend for Friday through Sunday with a chance for precipitation Sunday night west of the Rio Grande. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 859 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025 The upper level trough that brought us wind and precipitation to the region last night and this morning is quickly moving off to our northeast. In its wake we will see a dry northwest flow aloft develop across the region. This pattern will keep us dry with a slow warming trend. By Tuesday and Wednesday we will see high temperatures a few degrees above average. Then for Thanksgiving day and Friday, we will see an upper level ridge move across the state of New Mexico. This ridge will keep us dry and allow high temperatures to run 5 to 10 degrees above average. For Friday and into next weekend, the upper level ridge will slide eastward and our upper level flow will turn more toward the southwest as an upper level trough begins to get organized just off the West Coast. We will see a slow cooling trend as we move through next weekend so that by next Sunday our high temperatures will be at or a little below average. Looking just beyond the forecast, the extended models indicate that the West Coast trough will move to the east and have the potential to bring some lowland rain and mountain snow showers to the area for the start of December. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 859 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025 We will have VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. We currently have a few, low and mid clouds west of the Rio Grande, but those will dissipate in the next few hours and we will have unlimited ceilings for tonight and through the day on Monday. The winds tonight will be light from the west and those west winds will increase a little on Monday, but will stay well below any impactful levels. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 950 AM MST Sun Nov 23 2025 The fire risk will remain low throughout the period. A few lingering showers will continue this afternoon with most, if not all, of the activity dissipated by sunset. A clap of thunder cannot be ruled out. Winds will be breezy this afternoon topping out in the 10 to 15 MPH range with higher gusts. The rest of the period will feature gradually warming temperatures and light winds. Min RH values this afternoon will range 35 to 45 in the lowlands only falling to the upper 20s and lower 30s by mid-week. Vent rates will be good to very good today but will only range poor to fair for the rest of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 65 41 68 40 / 10 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 60 35 63 35 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 61 35 64 33 / 20 0 0 0 Alamogordo 60 35 64 32 / 50 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 43 26 47 22 / 60 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 61 37 62 35 / 30 0 0 0 Silver City 57 32 61 34 / 50 0 0 0 Deming 64 33 67 34 / 20 0 0 0 Lordsburg 58 33 63 33 / 40 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 63 40 65 41 / 10 0 0 0 Dell City 65 32 67 32 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 67 38 70 37 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 56 37 59 36 / 10 0 0 0 Fabens 65 37 67 38 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 61 36 65 35 / 10 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 63 42 66 40 / 30 0 0 0 Jornada Range 61 32 65 30 / 30 0 0 0 Hatch 64 33 67 30 / 20 0 0 0 Columbus 64 38 67 38 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 60 34 62 33 / 20 0 0 0 Mayhill 57 32 61 25 / 40 0 0 0 Mescalero 53 28 58 25 / 60 0 0 0 Timberon 51 27 56 23 / 40 0 0 0 Winston 58 28 59 26 / 30 0 0 0 Hillsboro 62 36 63 35 / 20 0 0 0 Spaceport 61 31 62 28 / 30 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 59 27 62 28 / 50 0 0 0 Hurley 59 31 62 32 / 40 0 0 0 Cliff 62 30 66 30 / 50 0 0 0 Mule Creek 59 28 63 30 / 60 0 0 0 Faywood 59 35 61 35 / 30 0 0 0 Animas 61 35 65 32 / 30 0 0 0 Hachita 60 32 64 33 / 10 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 63 35 65 32 / 10 0 0 0 Cloverdale 57 38 62 38 / 20 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...15-Brice