Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
865 FXUS64 KEPZ 200540 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1040 PM MST Wed Nov 19 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1033 PM MST Wed Nov 19 2025 - Showers will persist overnight and into the morning hours Thursday. Lingering light hit and miss showers by the afternoon. Generally light high elevation snow accumulations possible tonight and tomorrow. - Breezy and blustery conditions Thursday. - Additional rain showers and mountain snow looks more likely heading in Saturday night and Sunday, with some accumulations possible at high elevations. Quieter weather will follow. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 910 PM MST Wed Nov 19 2025 The core of the low pressure system that`s bringing us lowland rain and high elevation snow showers is currently centered over SoCal. It is continuing to push in light rain showers across the area. This trend will persist overnight tonight and into the morning hours tomorrow as rain continues to push west to east along with the system. High elevation snow showers expected tonight and into tomorrow when the cooler air really starts to push in. Snow levels drop to 8500` in the Gila region just before sunrise (Sacramentos snow levels will be around 10000` at this time). Right around sunrise and soon after is when snow levels start to drop to 8000, and by the early afternoon is when levels drop to 7500`. Locations in the Sacramentos like Cloudcroft should be cold enough for snow in the early afternoon as snow levels will be around 8500`. Unfortunately for you snow lovers out there - this won`t be too good of a setup for snow as much of the precipitation will have moved out before it could get cold enough. Snow levels look too high in the more populated areas of the mountains but light snow showers are possible. Light accumulations are possible for the high elevations of the Black Range at around 1-3" for locations above 8500-9000`, and the Sacramentos will be a bit less with totals generally 1-2" for the highest elevations above 9000`. Thereafter, some lingering hit and miss light rain showers expected heading into the early afternoon hours tomorrow. Precipitation will end after sunset leaving much quieter, and cooler, conditions for Friday. The next upper level storm system arrives by late Saturday bringing precipitation chances out west, spreading north and eastward throughout the day Sunday. Another round of lowland rain and high elevation snow can be expected. Snow totals look to be lighter with the second system. Much quieter conditions can be expected early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1033 PM MST Wed Nov 19 2025 Light rain showers with pockets of moderate rainfall will continue throughout the overnight hours and into the mid morning hours tomorrow. Heading into the afternoon, more hit and miss showers can be expected and breezy conditions. Precipitation chances will end after 00Z tomorrow. Winds will start becoming breezy around 18Z and should max out around 21Z with speeds 15-25G25-30KT out of the west southwest. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1222 PM MST Wed Nov 19 2025 Fire weather concerns continue to be minimal as a pair of systems will bring cooler temperatures, higher humidity, and a fair amount of precipitation to the region today and Thursday, and again Saturday Night into Sunday. Breezy to windy conditions Thursday will be mitigated by high humidity. Lots of burn pile spot requests lately. Most favorable vent rates this afternoon will be in the lower elevations in SW New Mexico, and the middle elevations elsewhere, with less favorable rates above 7500 feet. Vent rates will be much improved tomorrow with increasing west winds, except in the higher elevations (especially above 8000 feet) where mixing heights will be limited, closer to the inversion layer, the base of which which looks to hang out right around 10,000 feet most of the day. Vent rates look the worst on Friday, with some improvement Saturday. Things could get a bit dodgy again with the next system moving through Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 64 41 63 42 / 40 70 70 0 Sierra Blanca 64 35 61 37 / 70 50 50 0 Las Cruces 58 33 58 35 / 50 90 80 0 Alamogordo 58 33 58 35 / 40 80 70 0 Cloudcroft 39 21 42 26 / 70 70 70 10 Truth or Consequences 56 35 56 37 / 50 90 80 0 Silver City 47 29 53 35 / 80 100 80 0 Deming 59 32 60 37 / 60 100 80 0 Lordsburg 54 32 58 38 / 50 80 60 0 West El Paso Metro 62 41 60 43 / 50 70 70 0 Dell City 65 34 64 35 / 70 60 50 0 Fort Hancock 70 38 67 40 / 70 50 40 0 Loma Linda 56 35 55 40 / 70 70 50 0 Fabens 66 38 63 38 / 70 50 50 0 Santa Teresa 60 36 59 37 / 50 70 70 0 White Sands HQ 60 39 60 42 / 40 80 70 0 Jornada Range 58 32 58 32 / 50 90 80 0 Hatch 60 32 61 34 / 50 90 90 0 Columbus 61 35 62 39 / 50 90 70 0 Orogrande 58 33 57 35 / 40 90 60 0 Mayhill 50 27 56 30 / 70 60 60 0 Mescalero 49 24 53 29 / 60 70 60 0 Timberon 46 23 49 27 / 70 60 60 10 Winston 48 23 52 27 / 70 100 80 0 Hillsboro 55 31 57 36 / 70 100 90 0 Spaceport 57 29 57 32 / 50 90 90 0 Lake Roberts 47 25 55 30 / 70 100 80 0 Hurley 51 28 55 34 / 70 90 80 0 Cliff 54 31 59 34 / 70 100 70 0 Mule Creek 49 28 54 33 / 70 90 50 0 Faywood 50 30 54 37 / 70 90 80 0 Animas 56 33 60 35 / 50 80 40 0 Hachita 55 31 59 34 / 50 90 50 0 Antelope Wells 55 31 61 35 / 50 90 40 0 Cloverdale 48 34 55 39 / 50 80 40 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...37-Slusher