Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
516 FXUS64 KEPZ 281716 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1016 AM MST Fri Nov 28 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1000 AM MST Fri Nov 28 2025 - Warmer than average temperatures continue Friday and Saturday with dry and pleasant conditions. - A cold front will push in Sunday morning bringing easterly breeziness that morning and temperatures becoming below normal. - Dry conditions, gentle warming, and light afternoon breezes through midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1000 AM MST Fri Nov 28 2025 Generally benign weather will persist through Saturday as a low- intensity trough swings through the Great Basin. A regime of quasi- zonal flow aloft will prevail, leading to warm and dry conditions across the Borderland. Temperatures will peak today, ticking down slightly on Saturday as lower pressure heights start to dig into the Desert Southwest. The aforementioned Great Basin trough will slide into the Midwest, kicking off a backdoor cold front down the Great Plains. The front will surge southward and westward Saturday evening and into the overnight hours. Sunday`s high temperatures will see a decent reduction as a result, with locales out east seeing around 10F to 15F of cooling compared to Saturday. Areas west of the mountains won`t see quite as dramatic of a decrease, but will still be party to around 3F to 9F of cooling. Hot on the heels of the front, another system will attempt to swing into the Rockies Sunday night. Models now have this system side-swiping northern/central NM, keeping the best chances of precip localized beyond the Borderland. At most, the system will bring us a slight increase in westerly winds Monday afternoon. Another weak shortwave will keep temperatures moderated on Tuesday, keeping them near normal for early December. Temperatures will attempt to rebound a degree or two on Wednesday but their ambition will be short lived. A broad, positively tilted trough begins its tour of the Intermountain West on Tuesday night, setting its sights on NM late in the day on Wednesday. Run-to-run consistency on this feature remains lackluster, but a few models hint at the possibility of light precip, particularly out west. As such, did not deviate from the NBM at this juncture. The trough`s ejection from the Desert Southwest is drawn out, lasting into Friday as it digs further toward the Borderland. Should the solution pan out, cooler temperatures would be in store to finish out the work week, along with a chance for precip. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1000 AM MST Fri Nov 28 2025 VFR conditions to prevail throughout the TAF period with typical aftn breezes. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 630 AM MST Fri Nov 28 2025 Dry conditions with light west to southwest flow will prevail today and Saturday. Despite seasonably cool mornings, afternoon temperatures will run about 8-10 degrees above normal. A weak backdoor cold front will drop temperatures to near normal on Sunday. Vent rates will see some improvement today, but lighter winds on Saturday will drop them back to Poor to Fair again. But next week should see some improvements in the wake of an upper level disturbance that will graze the northern half of New Mexico. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 46 70 40 61 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 40 66 34 53 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 37 65 34 56 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 38 65 33 58 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 29 47 23 41 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 39 64 35 58 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 36 60 35 55 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 37 69 34 61 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 35 64 35 61 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 45 68 42 59 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 35 70 30 54 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 42 73 37 63 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 41 62 33 52 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 42 70 38 62 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 39 67 38 58 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 46 67 39 58 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 33 65 30 57 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 34 68 32 61 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 42 70 37 62 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 36 64 35 56 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 35 61 22 51 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 32 58 25 52 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 30 57 24 46 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 29 61 25 55 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 38 65 35 58 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 33 65 31 57 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 29 62 27 56 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 35 63 32 56 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 30 66 29 63 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 30 63 28 60 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 38 63 36 55 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 37 67 35 65 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 35 66 33 62 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 38 68 36 67 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 40 61 40 61 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...99