Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
407 FXUS64 KEPZ 040307 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 807 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 445 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025 - A weak upper level disturbance will move across northern New Mexico tonight, just grazing our area. Light rain and snow showers will favor the Gila Region and Sacramento Mountains, with just minor accumulations. - Cooler for Thursday. Dry conditions, typical breezes, and daily warming expected through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1023 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025 The most "active" period of the forecast will be in the next 24 hours as an upper-level trough swings through northern NM. Winds increase this afternoon from the W-SW ahead of the system with 850mb flow of 20-25kts. A typical breezy day is expected, gusting to 30 mph with relatively lighter winds in far west TX further from the trough axis. Most of the precip impacts from the disturbance will occur in northern NM as dry, westerly flow remains over the southern part of the state. The Sacs have the best chance for precip later tonight as the trough axis dips south. Snow levels will be dropping from about 8kft to near 5kft during the short-lived event, which should only last 6-12 hours for the Sacs. Not much moisture is available, so only light accumulations of up to 1" are forecast (high-end scenario is 2" according to the NBM). Elsewhere, northern areas, especially the Gila Region, have a low chance (10-30%) of seeing light rain or snow flurries this evening. The I-10 corridor is forecast to stay dry through tonight. The trough quickly ejects to the east on Thu, leaving us with mostly clear skies and cooler temps. Thu`s highs will be about 5 degrees below normal behind the side-door front. A cut-off low from the Pacific gets swept up in the flow on Thu, bringing increased moisture and clouds to southeastern areas late Thu night, but very little chance of rain (10% or less). From Fri onward, NW flow aloft will keep our weather pleasant. Temps will steadily climb through the weekend, reaching above normal early next week. Precip chances will be near zero after tomorrow while the storm track stays well to the north. Typical afternoon breeziness can be expected each day. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 445 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025 VFR conditions will prevail, but with scattered to broken mid level cloud decks across the area, and brief periods of SCT040-050 possible at TCS, where the odd sprinkle or two can`t be ruled out. Winds have already shifted to the WNW, and will trend towards northerly by mid-morning Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1023 AM MST Wed Dec 3 2025 Fire weather concerns will be low through the forecast period. A low chance of rain and mtn snow is forecast for tonight, mainly in the Sacs as a storm system tracks across northern NM. Light snow accumulations up to 1" are expected in the Sacs with slightly heavier snowfall (2-3") further north in Lincoln county. Winds increase from the W-SW this afternoon ahead of the trough, with 20-ft winds of about 15 mph, gusting to 25 mph. Min RHs (30-50%) will be well above critical levels, so elevated fire danger is not forecast today. Deeper mixing heights and transport winds are expected this afternoon, so ventilation will be very good, mostly. Light winds return tomorrow along with cooler temps behind the front, resulting in poor ventilation. No precip is expected after tomorrow morning through the weekend under northwest flow aloft. Typical afternoon breeziness is forecast for the weekend. Temperatures gradually rebound to above normal by early next week. Min RHs will be 25-45% Thu, dropping to 20-35% by Sat. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 59 39 61 37 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 55 34 58 33 / 0 0 0 10 Las Cruces 54 31 56 29 / 0 10 0 0 Alamogordo 53 29 55 28 / 0 30 10 0 Cloudcroft 34 20 35 21 / 0 40 10 0 Truth or Consequences 51 29 53 30 / 0 20 0 0 Silver City 49 28 51 28 / 0 30 0 0 Deming 57 31 59 29 / 0 10 0 0 Lordsburg 54 29 55 28 / 0 30 0 0 West El Paso Metro 57 40 60 37 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 54 29 62 28 / 0 10 10 0 Fort Hancock 63 38 66 35 / 0 0 10 0 Loma Linda 51 35 53 33 / 0 10 10 0 Fabens 61 37 63 33 / 0 0 10 0 Santa Teresa 56 35 58 32 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 56 37 59 36 / 0 10 0 0 Jornada Range 54 27 57 27 / 0 10 0 0 Hatch 56 27 60 26 / 0 10 0 0 Columbus 58 37 61 34 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 53 30 56 28 / 0 20 0 0 Mayhill 46 24 50 26 / 0 40 10 0 Mescalero 44 22 46 23 / 10 50 20 0 Timberon 43 21 45 23 / 0 30 10 0 Winston 46 19 51 23 / 0 30 0 0 Hillsboro 52 29 55 30 / 0 20 0 0 Spaceport 52 24 55 24 / 0 20 0 0 Lake Roberts 50 22 51 23 / 0 40 0 0 Hurley 51 27 53 26 / 0 20 0 0 Cliff 55 23 57 24 / 10 30 0 0 Mule Creek 51 22 53 26 / 10 30 0 0 Faywood 51 29 54 30 / 0 10 0 0 Animas 56 32 58 31 / 0 20 0 0 Hachita 56 30 58 29 / 0 10 0 0 Antelope Wells 57 34 60 33 / 0 10 0 0 Cloverdale 53 36 54 34 / 0 20 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...25-Hardiman