Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
132 FXUS64 KEPZ 290502 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1102 PM MDT Thu Aug 28 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1040 PM MDT Thu Aug 28 2025 - Can`t rule out some stray showers through the night, especially west of the Rio Grande. - Better chances for showers and thunderstorms to persist in the lowlands Friday night. - Thunderstorm chances will remain elevated Saturday and Sunday, with localized heavy rainfall and flash flood potential, especially in the high terrain. - Precip chances will diminish Monday into Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1040 PM MDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Seeing some isolated to widely scattered showers trying to percolate again in SW New Mexico, and can`t rule out another little tray making it in close to ELP as outflow boundaries move in from the north and west in the next few hours. Best chance for measurable rain will be in an arc from the Bootheel up into the Gila and across Sierra County. Heading into tomorrow (Fri), the subtropical ridge will be centered over SE New Mexico, with deeper mid-level moisture getting pulled up in SW New Mexico on southerly flow. Mid-level temperatures look to cool slightly, to around -5 to -6C. Expect convection will be mostly based in the higher terrain in the early afternoon, then spread to the desert mountain ranges late in the afternoon. A shortwave trough will graze northern New Mexico in the evening hours, lowland thunderstorm chances will ramp up, and look to persist well into the overnight hours. This is supported by most HREF members and the experimental REFS. Localized heavy downpours will be possible. By Saturday, PWAT values will range from around 1.25 to 1.50 inches across the area, and the risk of localized flash flooding will increase, especially across the Sacramento Mountains and Gila Region starting in the afternoon. Once again lowland precip chances look to hang on into the night across the lowlands Saturday night, aided by upper level diffluence west of the subtropical ridge. For Sunday, some drier air looks to sneak in across the northern 2/3rds of New Mexico, with low level moisture pooling across southern portions as low level easterly flow pulls in a higher dewpoint air mass. Precip chances look to be highest across southern portions, but a lot will depend on how overnight convection evolves Saturday night. Monday into Tuesday, the subtropical ridge will be redeveloping over the Great Basin, while cooler and drier air flows down the Great Plains on the backside of trough over the Great Lakes. Expect a downturn in convection during this time frame, with some improvement possible by late in the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1040 PM MDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Stray convective showers are still holding on, especially in SW New Mexico, but probabilities of impacts at terminals are minimal. Expect the usual diurnal thunderstorm trends on Friday, but as an upper level disturbance grazes northern New Mexico late in the day and into the overnight hours, lowland showers and thunderstorms look to persist well into the evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1123 AM MDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Moisture will be on the increase into the weekend with fairly widespread precipitation expected. Rainfall amounts of several inches are possible in the higher terrain, especially eastern slopes of the Sacramento Mountains. Temperatures will be warmest Friday with 90s with RH`s in the 20s over the lowlands, but by Sunday, all areas will cool down into the 80s with min RH`s rising into the 30s and 40s. Rain chances drop early next week, but will not be zero. Temperatures will remain generally in the 80s with RH`s remaining above 25%. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 76 98 74 95 / 20 30 50 20 Sierra Blanca 67 93 65 90 / 20 40 40 40 Las Cruces 69 95 68 91 / 20 40 60 20 Alamogordo 70 95 69 91 / 10 50 60 30 Cloudcroft 52 72 50 68 / 10 70 50 80 Truth or Consequences 69 93 68 89 / 20 40 30 30 Silver City 63 90 62 86 / 20 40 30 60 Deming 69 98 69 94 / 20 30 50 20 Lordsburg 68 94 69 92 / 20 20 30 20 West El Paso Metro 74 96 72 92 / 20 30 50 20 Dell City 69 97 68 94 / 20 30 40 30 Fort Hancock 73 99 72 95 / 30 40 50 20 Loma Linda 69 90 66 86 / 20 30 50 20 Fabens 72 98 71 93 / 20 30 50 20 Santa Teresa 71 95 70 91 / 20 30 50 20 White Sands HQ 74 96 71 92 / 20 40 60 50 Jornada Range 70 95 68 91 / 20 50 60 30 Hatch 69 98 69 93 / 20 40 50 30 Columbus 71 98 69 93 / 20 40 60 20 Orogrande 69 94 67 89 / 10 40 60 30 Mayhill 57 82 55 78 / 20 70 50 80 Mescalero 57 83 55 80 / 10 70 50 80 Timberon 56 81 54 78 / 10 70 50 70 Winston 56 85 56 83 / 30 80 30 60 Hillsboro 65 94 64 90 / 30 50 50 50 Spaceport 68 94 67 90 / 20 40 40 30 Lake Roberts 57 89 56 86 / 30 60 30 70 Hurley 64 91 64 89 / 20 30 30 50 Cliff 65 95 65 94 / 20 40 20 40 Mule Creek 62 90 62 89 / 20 30 20 30 Faywood 65 91 64 88 / 20 50 50 50 Animas 69 94 69 92 / 30 30 40 30 Hachita 68 94 68 91 / 30 30 40 30 Antelope Wells 66 93 66 91 / 40 50 60 40 Cloverdale 63 87 63 86 / 40 60 50 50 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...25-Hardiman