Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
060 FXUS64 KEPZ 302334 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 534 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 529 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026 - Light showers across the area with breezy winds into the early evening. - Mostly dry conditions with some breeziness Thursday through Saturday with low end chances for showers confined to the Sacramento Mtns each afternoon. - Pleasant with temperatures mainly in the mid to upper 70s Thursday and through the weekend. These temperatures will be about 5 to 8 degrees below normal for this time of year. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1210 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026 Main upper low will be crossing northern NM today, but with the recent moisture and colder air aloft, we will see instability showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon. Storms will be moving and we are drying out so I don`t think flooding will be an issue. Once the low moves into the Central Plains, it stalls out and we keep an elongated trough through eastern areas and a ridge building into the Four Corners. This results in a Rex Block with our area in the NE flow side. This will bring back some low level moisture and a cool front Thursday night. The NBM seemed pretty high for PoPs over far eastern areas, but with the easterly upslope flow, there will be low clouds moving in and especially over the eastern Sacs. Temperatures for most of the area will not get out of the 70s through the weekend. Easterly winds will get breezy as well, with the focus on the western mountain slopes and out on the Lordsburg Playa. The Rex Block breaks down by Monday as we start to feel the effects of the next upper trough moving in. The EC and GFS are in decent agreement with this trough but the GFS is a little more optimistic with QPF amounts. NBM PoPs seem reasonable here with isolated to scattered coverage. Temperatures may be able to reach 80 in the lower elevations early next week, but 70s still look widespread. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 529 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026 VFR conditions persist through the TAF period. Afternoon breezes will become light after sunset through the overnight hours. Some continued breeziness tomorrow afternoon but won`t be quite as breezy as what we saw today. VCSH continues for a few more hours for KTCS but dry conditions resume after sunset. Light showers possible tomorrow afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1210 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026 Fire weather concerns will remain minimal due to recent rains and temperatures at or below normal for the next week. RH`s will remain at or above 35% during this period. A back door cold front moves through Thursday night and will bring some breezy easterly winds from time to time into the weekend. A few showers are possible in the Mountains from time to time but rainfall amounts will remain light. A better chance for some more widespread rain moves in late Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 54 77 57 72 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 54 74 52 69 / 0 0 0 10 Las Cruces 51 76 53 74 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 51 75 52 74 / 10 10 10 0 Cloudcroft 37 55 38 51 / 10 10 20 10 Truth or Consequences 52 74 54 73 / 10 0 10 0 Silver City 47 71 50 71 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 49 77 55 76 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 51 75 55 75 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 54 77 58 73 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 53 76 56 71 / 0 0 10 10 Fort Hancock 54 82 57 78 / 0 0 10 10 Loma Linda 50 70 51 66 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 55 79 55 73 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Teresa 52 76 55 75 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 53 77 57 76 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 49 76 51 75 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 53 79 54 78 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 54 78 56 77 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 50 74 51 73 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 43 66 44 59 / 10 20 20 30 Mescalero 42 65 43 61 / 10 10 20 10 Timberon 40 62 42 60 / 10 10 10 10 Winston 44 68 45 67 / 0 10 10 0 Hillsboro 51 74 54 73 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 49 75 51 75 / 10 0 10 0 Lake Roberts 42 72 45 70 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 46 73 51 72 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 48 79 53 79 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 46 76 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 48 72 52 71 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 51 76 56 75 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 50 76 54 74 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 50 76 54 73 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 49 72 53 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...37-Slusher