Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
164 FXUS64 KEPZ 300437 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1037 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1011 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2026 - Storm chances will be limited mostly along and west of the Continental Divide through Monday, then low chances in area mountains. - Above normal temperatures through the week, with lowland highs in the upper 90s to 100 degrees. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1011 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2026 Western areas into E AZ will remain favored for storms through Monday as the monsoon high shifts east over the mid-MS River Valley. A few showers or storms may redevelop tonight out west with the modest moisture plume overhead and storm motion to the north. Most areas, including El Paso and Las Cruces, stay dry for Sunday with slightly better rain chances across the north. PWs rise to 1.1-1.2" W of the Divide on Sun as the moisture plume nudges eastward, resulting in scattered convection capable of producing heavy rainfall (up to 2"), focusing in Hidalgo Co. The moisture plume nudges a bit further east on Mon, increasing storm chances slightly area-wide. The heavy rain threat will remain elevated out west on Mon due to higher PWs, again favoring Hidalgo Co. Isolated activity is forecast into the evening for much of the lowlands with drier conditions for eastern areas. Global models are in agreement with the upper high focusing over the Carolinas/TN Valley into midweek and stretching across the southern Plains, keeping much of the monsoonal moisture south of us. Low mtn storm chances are forecast from Tue onward as the lowlands stay mainly dry. The high looks to centralize over the southern Plains late in the week and reinvigorate the moisture plume a bit. Areas to the north and west appear best set up for storm chances to end the period. The placement of the high should keep any tropical remnants from the Pacific from reaching the Desert SW for Labor Day weekend. Temps will be steady through the week with highs 5-10 degrees above normal. Lowland highs of 95-100F are forecast each day with slight cooling on Tue. Winds remain light through midweek, shifting more W by Mon. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1011 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2026 VFR conditions prevail through the AM. Slight chance (10-20%) of TS this afternoon near KTCS and KDMN with confidence too low for mention in TAFs. More scattered convection W of KDMN. KELP and KLRU should remain dry. Outflow gusts to 30kts possible later in period, otherwise winds AOB 10kts from S-SW. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1100 AM MDT Sat Aug 29 2026 Very isolated (10-20% coverage) showers and thunderstorms over Gila/Lincoln forests this afternoon. Flooding risk is low, but storm will be capable of sudden wind shifts and gusts up to 40 mph. Rain chances expected to end quickly this evening, likely before sunset with dry conditions overnight into Sunday. Wind will be out of the south 5 to 10 mph on Saturday, leading to Fair vent rates. Winds shifting to the southwest on Sunday, with Good vent rates.ons overnight into Sunday. Storm chances will be more limited to Gila NF Sunday/Monday, as moisture focuses west of the Continental Divide. Min RH 20-30% with good overnight recoveries (60-80%) this weekend. Light south winds 5 to 10 mph today, shifting to the southwest on Sunday. Fair to Good midday vent rates. Next week looks warm with continued isolated (20-40% coverage) storm chances. Storms will be hit-and-miss in nature, with localized flooding risk during the afternoon hours each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 75 100 74 99 / 0 10 0 20 Sierra Blanca 67 96 67 96 / 0 0 0 20 Las Cruces 70 99 70 98 / 0 10 10 20 Alamogordo 72 99 71 98 / 0 10 10 20 Cloudcroft 53 75 53 75 / 0 20 10 30 Truth or Consequences 73 97 72 95 / 0 20 10 20 Silver City 66 90 63 87 / 10 20 20 30 Deming 70 99 69 97 / 0 20 10 20 Lordsburg 70 95 67 91 / 20 30 30 20 West El Paso Metro 77 100 77 99 / 0 10 10 20 Dell City 70 100 70 99 / 0 0 0 20 Fort Hancock 74 104 73 103 / 0 10 0 20 Loma Linda 69 93 69 92 / 0 10 0 20 Fabens 72 101 72 100 / 0 0 10 20 Santa Teresa 73 99 72 97 / 0 10 10 20 White Sands HQ 75 100 75 99 / 0 10 10 20 Jornada Range 71 98 70 97 / 0 10 10 20 Hatch 72 102 71 100 / 0 10 10 20 Columbus 74 100 72 98 / 0 10 10 20 Orogrande 70 97 70 97 / 0 10 10 20 Mayhill 58 88 58 87 / 0 20 10 30 Mescalero 57 86 57 86 / 0 20 10 30 Timberon 55 85 56 84 / 0 20 10 20 Winston 61 88 59 86 / 10 40 20 40 Hillsboro 70 96 68 95 / 0 20 10 20 Spaceport 70 98 69 97 / 0 10 10 20 Lake Roberts 59 88 57 86 / 10 30 20 40 Hurley 66 93 63 90 / 10 20 20 30 Cliff 68 96 66 93 / 20 30 30 30 Mule Creek 64 91 62 87 / 20 30 30 20 Faywood 68 93 66 91 / 0 20 20 20 Animas 70 95 66 91 / 20 30 40 40 Hachita 70 95 66 92 / 10 20 20 40 Antelope Wells 68 95 65 91 / 10 30 30 50 Cloverdale 65 88 62 84 / 20 40 50 50 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...39-Aronson