542
FXUS64 KEPZ 280450
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1050 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1100 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

 - Hot temperatures persisting for the rest of the week, running
   5 to 10 degrees above normal. Lowland highs 100 to 107 each
   afternoon, posing a risk of heat-related illnesses.

 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday, capable of
   brief heavy rain, gusty winds, and localized flash flooding.
   Rain chances will be limited to the high elevations and
   Southwest New Mexico later this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1100 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Persistent upper high remains fixed over the Southern Rockies,
and will sit there through at least the remainder of late July.
This will drive the weather pattern through the week ahead. GFS
500-mb height anomalies suggest this high is 3-4 standard
deviations stronger than is typical for the middle of the North
American Monsoon. The pattern is not favorable for widespread
rain, as any storms that do form will be mostly driven by recycled
moisture and convective temperature/terrain forcing producing
meager instability. The monsoonal plume will be broad and diffuse,
but generally favor the AZ/NM state line. Precipitable water
values are just over an inch through much of southwest New Mexico,
with drier air further to the east across far west Texas and
southeast New Mexico.

We may see an uptick in storm chances on Tuesday, driven by a
decaying MCS over Sonora flushing in additional moisture out of
the southwest. NAM/GFS both show an outflow boundary with higher
surface dewpoints across southwest New Mexico by sunrise tomorrow
and afternoon precipitable water values 1.2-1.4". This will lead
to more scattered (50-70% coverage) thunderstorms Tuesday evening.
A few storms may be severe, with large hail and damaging winds.
Cloud-layer flow of 15-knots suggests flooding risk may be lower
than the past few days, as storms will be able to more efficiently
move to the WNW. Storms may last well into the nighttime hours
due to outflow forcing.

The main headline for the desert lowlands, however, will be hot
temperatures. Suffocating upper ridge aloft will promote very hot
afternoon conditions, followed by little relief overnight. Highs
will run 8-12 degrees above normal for late July, which means
lowland highs in the 102 to 106 degree range through at least next
Friday. A Heat Advisory is in effect for El Paso and the lower
Rio Grande Valley through Tuesday, and may need to be expanded in
both time and area later this week.

Minimal changes in the strength or orientation of the high for
Tuesday onward will make it difficult to pinpoint any appreciable
day-to-day changes with sensible weather elements. Overall
weather pattern will be warmer-than-normal temperatures and
isolated rain chances focused mainly across southwest New Mexico
and the southern NM high elevations. GFS/ECMWF both agree in a
slight retrograde of the upper high as we head into the first week
of August, which may allow for slightly better storm coverage and
some interesting north flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1100 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Isolated TSRA across SW NM next few hours. Skies FEW-SCT150
overnight. Gusty west winds from distant outflows leading to
250-290 at 10 to 15 knots through 10Z tonight, followed by light
flow AOB 8 knots. PROB30 TS mentions at KELP/KLRU/KDMN Tuesday
evening due to better confidence in direct impacts. TEMPO for KTCS
due to higher confidence. Most likely timeframe for storms
generally 22-04Z Tuesday evening and night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Generally low fire weather concerns for the week ahead. Min RHs
across the desert lowlands will be near critical to critical each
day with percentages of around 13-20% each afternoon. Area
mountain min RHs will be 25-40%. Storm chances exist each
afternoon with a focus over the area mountains and locations along
and west of the Continental Divide. Looks like there will be an
uptick in storm activity and coverage tomorrow afternoon and
evening for the Gila region and lowland locations west of the Rio
Grande. Temperatures will remain hot each afternoon with lowland
temperatures in the upper 90s and triple digits, mountain areas
with highs of 75F to 90F.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  79 105  79 104 /  10   0  10   0
Sierra Blanca            71 102  70  99 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               73 103  73 102 /  10   0  20   0
Alamogordo               77 103  75 102 /  10  10  10   0
Cloudcroft               58  80  56  78 /  10  10  10  10
Truth or Consequences    76 102  75 101 /  10  10  40   0
Silver City              68  95  66  94 /  10  50  30  20
Deming                   73 104  73 103 /  10  10  20   0
Lordsburg                73 100  72 100 /  10  10  30  10
West El Paso Metro       80 104  80 103 /  10   0  10   0
Dell City                74 105  73 102 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             77 107  78 106 /  10   0   0   0
Loma Linda               71  98  72  96 /  10   0  10   0
Fabens                   77 105  77 105 /  10   0  10   0
Santa Teresa             76 102  76 102 /  10   0  10   0
White Sands HQ           80 105  80 103 /  10   0  10   0
Jornada Range            76 105  76 102 /  10   0  20   0
Hatch                    76 106  75 105 /  10   0  20   0
Columbus                 78 104  77 104 /  10  10  20   0
Orogrande                74 103  74 101 /  10   0  10   0
Mayhill                  63  92  62  89 /  10  10  10  10
Mescalero                63  92  61  90 /  10  10  10  10
Timberon                 60  90  59  88 /  10  10  10  10
Winston                  66  93  64  92 /  10  40  30  30
Hillsboro                73 100  72  99 /  10  20  30  10
Spaceport                73 102  73 101 /  10   0  30   0
Lake Roberts             61  95  60  94 /  10  60  40  40
Hurley                   69  98  68  98 /  10  40  30  20
Cliff                    69 100  68 100 /  20  50  30  20
Mule Creek               66  96  65  96 /  30  50  30  20
Faywood                  70  98  69  97 /  10  30  30  10
Animas                   72  99  72 100 /  20  10  50  10
Hachita                  72 100  71 100 /  10  10  30  10
Antelope Wells           70  99  70 100 /  40  10  40  20
Cloverdale               64  92  66  93 /  50  20  50  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Tuesday for Eastern/Central El Paso
     County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western
     Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth
     County-Salt Basin-Western El Paso County.

NM...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Tuesday for Northern Dona Ana
     County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-West Central
     Tularosa Basin/White Sands.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt