Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
354 FXUS64 KEPZ 120431 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1031 PM MDT Sun Oct 11 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1030 PM MDT Sun Oct 11 2026 - Isolated showers will gradually wind down this evening. - Mostly dry with breezy conditions Monday through Wednesday. - Cool blast of air with windy to very windy conditions looks increasingly likely late Thursday and early Friday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 PM MDT Sun Oct 11 2026 Long wave UL trough covers roughly the western half of the CONUS with a closed low over Eastern OR. Somewhere embedded in that trough is the remnants of Rachel. Closer to home, a band of showers and a few thunderstorms are moving through the CWA with activity gradually waning and exiting, leaving most of us dry overnight. The large-scale trough sticks around for Monday, but we lose any meaningful dynamics. Monday will be warm and breezy. Moisture, associated with Hurricane Simon, will be pulled northward thanks to the trough, and by Monday evening there will be a low chance for showers/storms across Hudspeth County as most of any moisture associated with Simon stays east of the area. We will see another, stronger wave of moisture on Tuesday, but again, much of the moisture will stay east, only giving Hudspeth County a chance for showers and storms. By Wednesday the main UL low (same one that is now over Oregon) will exit into the Plains, completely placing Southern NM and Far West Texas in the dry slot, behind a Pacific front. This will bring seasonal temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday. The aforementioned UL low will also send cooler air southward in its wake. The GFS is a tad quicker than Euro with the front, but in any case, winds will become gusty behind the front, especially for West Slope areas beginning Thursday evening. Current operational NBM shows Wind Advisory and High Wind Warning level winds with this front, so that will need to be closely monitored. GFS bufkit soundings also very much supports this forecast with many of our west slope locations showing a greater than 50% chance of exceeding 50 MPH gusts. Friday will be a much cooler day with highs around 15 degrees below normal. It will feel a bit brisk! A piece of the trough breaks off on Thursday, and the GFS and Euro show a broad closed low forming off the Baja Coast by Friday with moisture being drawn northward. This moisture is, checks and rechecks model data, associated with Simon, which manages to survive having part of it sheared off earlier in the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM MDT Sun Oct 11 2026 VFR conditions are expected with SCT-BKN090-150 tonight becoming SKC-FEW250 by morning. An ISO SHRA or TSRA cannot be completely ruled out overnight, but chances/confidence of occurrence are low. Winds will be light and variable overnight but will increase from the W or SW (220-250) to around 10 knots with gusts to 20 knots by 18z, decreasing again after dark. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 121 PM MDT Sun Oct 11 2026 Low fire weather concerns through the week ahead. Min RHs stay above critical thresholds each afternoon. Mostly dry conditions tomorrow with the exception of portions of Hudspeth and Otero counties as this area is expected to see isolated to scattered storms in the late afternoon and evening. Thereafter, dry conditions persist through at least Wednesday. A strong backdoor cold front is expected to push in from the Great Plains late Thursday and early Friday morning which will bring much cooler temperatures and windy easterly conditions for locations along the Int`l Border and especially windy for west facing slopes. Models are still in disagreement as to whether we could see rain or not from this cold front. Min RHs in the lowlands will be 25-35% and 40-60% in the area mountains Monday through Thursday. 20 foot winds will be slightly breezy Monday and Tuesday with speeds anywhere from 5-15 mph sustained. Temperatures stay near normal to slightly above average Monday through Wednesday but dips to 10-15 degrees below average Friday and Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 66 85 63 84 / 30 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 63 85 62 82 / 50 0 20 0 Las Cruces 61 81 58 79 / 20 0 0 0 Alamogordo 62 82 60 80 / 60 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 47 60 45 58 / 60 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 57 79 55 78 / 10 0 0 0 Silver City 52 71 50 70 / 30 10 10 10 Deming 58 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 58 77 54 77 / 10 10 0 0 West El Paso Metro 68 84 65 83 / 30 0 0 0 Dell City 64 88 63 86 / 50 0 10 0 Fort Hancock 68 92 66 90 / 50 0 10 0 Loma Linda 61 78 59 76 / 30 0 0 0 Fabens 66 88 64 86 / 30 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 64 83 61 82 / 30 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 66 84 62 83 / 50 0 0 0 Jornada Range 61 81 57 80 / 30 0 0 0 Hatch 60 83 57 82 / 10 0 0 0 Columbus 61 84 59 83 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 62 82 59 81 / 50 0 0 0 Mayhill 52 74 52 72 / 40 0 0 0 Mescalero 51 71 50 69 / 60 0 0 0 Timberon 51 69 50 67 / 60 0 0 0 Winston 49 72 45 71 / 10 0 0 0 Hillsboro 56 77 53 77 / 10 0 0 0 Spaceport 58 80 55 78 / 20 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 47 69 44 68 / 40 10 10 0 Hurley 52 74 50 74 / 10 10 0 0 Cliff 56 75 53 75 / 50 20 10 10 Mule Creek 53 71 50 70 / 50 30 10 20 Faywood 55 73 52 73 / 10 10 0 0 Animas 59 79 55 79 / 10 10 0 0 Hachita 57 79 55 79 / 0 10 0 0 Antelope Wells 58 81 55 81 / 0 10 0 0 Cloverdale 56 73 52 73 / 10 20 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...34-Brown