532
FXUS64 KEPZ 121221
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
621 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025

...New FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 -  Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms through Thursday
    favoring area mountains with gusty outflows into the lowlands.

 -  Seasonable temperatures Wednesday, with heat building Friday
    through the weekend. Hottest temperatures Sunday and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1035 PM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Low pressure system responsible for the previous days` unsettled
weather will whisk off into the MS Valley Thursday, allowing for a
ridge of high pressure to build in its wake. H5 pressure heights
will go from a seasonable 584dam to a balmy 589dam by Thursday
afternoon. Afternoon highs will respond in turn, with most locales
seeing around a 5F to 8F increase compared to Wednesday`s readings.
Recycled moisture across the high terrain may lend to a storm or two
in the afternoon across the Sacramento Mts.

The high center, parked in the Pacific, will begin nosing its way
into the Baja Thursday night, taking up residence in northern MX
Friday morning. Daytime highs will inch up another degree or two as
a result, with 100F becoming more widespread across the lowland
deserts and RGV. The high meanders northward on Saturday,
strengthening in its trek as it centers over the Bootheel.

The heat will be on from this point forward as its 595dam center
wobbles around southern NM with heat advisories likely being needed
for most lowland zones. The uncertainty lies in whether the heat
will intensify further into Sunday and Monday. Position of the high
lends itself to more northerly to northeasterly flow aloft with
quasi-easterly flow at the surface, two conditions that don`t
necessarily lend well to extreme heat under a 595dam high. This is
where there`s been a lack of run-to-run consistency amongst the
extended guidance, with some suggesting a more western position of
the high, while other runs have favored the high sitting squarely
over far west TX. The NBM seems excitable as to the idea of the
latter, tossing in a sweltering 109F for Sunday and Monday for El
Paso and its neighbors south in the RGV. Ultimately, the position
and strength of the high will dictate whether or not the Borderland
becomes subject to extreme heat early next week.

Meanwhile, a potent upper low dips into NorCal, its sights set on
the Great Basin. Frigid by comparison, the 570dam low will swing
eastward, helping to squash the oppressive high on Tuesday. Our
H5 pressure heights will fall in response, bringing relief to the
heat. As to how much? Well, the GFS suggests less dramatic
cooling, with heights falling from 595dam Monday to 589dam on
Tuesday. The ECMWF presents a different solution, turning the
system into a cutoff low that sweeps into the CWA Tuesday. Either
way, it looks like relief is in store come Wednesday, whether it`s
a few degrees or something more substantial. Stay tuned...

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 544 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Another round of afternoon thunderstorms and showers expected
today. Storms will be similar to what we saw yesterday where
storms initiate over the higher terrain of southern NM mid-day
with storms spreading south and east into the desert lowlands by
the middle to late afternoon hours. Main threat will continue to
be gusty outflow winds up to 55 mph directly under outflows. KTCS
has the best chance to see a storm today with LRU and ELP also
having a chance. DMN has a low chance of seeing a storm today.
Activity diminishes after sunset with much of the lingering
showery activity done by late Thu/early Fri.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 600 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Continued elevated fire danger each day and through the middle of
next week due to widespread critical min RHs. The Sacramento Mtns
will stay above critical RH thresholds today but continued drying
and warming due to increasing high pressure will drop min RHs to
single digits across the desert lowlands as early as tomorrow.
Winds remain light and variable with drainage flow each night.
Each afternoon will consist of light afternoon breeziness with
speeds 5-15 mph. Saturday through Monday will be the hottest days
with temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal.

Low end rain chances exist this afternoon east of Deming and the
Gila region. The main threat will be gusty outflow winds near
thunderstorms. Wind gusts could reach up to 50 mph directly under
outflows this afternoon. Chances greatly dwindle after today
where there`s only a very low end chance of rain in the Sacramento
Mtns tomorrow afternoon and then virtually no rain chances into
next week. Ventilation rates will be very good to excellent each
day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 102  76 105  75 /   0  10   0   0
Sierra Blanca            96  66  98  66 /  10  10   0  10
Las Cruces               99  67 100  67 /  10  10   0   0
Alamogordo               98  67 101  67 /  10  10   0   0
Cloudcroft               75  53  77  54 /  20  10  10   0
Truth or Consequences    98  69 100  70 /  10  10   0   0
Silver City              92  63  92  62 /  10   0   0   0
Deming                  102  67 103  65 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                97  65  99  64 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      100  74 103  74 /   0  10   0   0
Dell City                99  66 103  67 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Hancock            104  70 106  70 /   0  10   0  10
Loma Linda               94  69  95  70 /   0  10   0   0
Fabens                  102  71 104  70 /   0  10   0   0
Santa Teresa             99  69 101  69 /   0  10   0  10
White Sands HQ          100  74 101  75 /  10  10   0   0
Jornada Range            99  63 100  64 /  10  10   0   0
Hatch                   101  65 103  65 /  10  10   0   0
Columbus                102  72 102  70 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                97  68  99  68 /  10  10   0   0
Mayhill                  86  56  88  58 /  30  10  10   0
Mescalero                86  56  88  58 /  20  10  10   0
Timberon                 84  55  86  56 /  20  10  10   0
Winston                  90  56  92  56 /  20  10   0   0
Hillsboro                97  64  99  65 /  10   0   0   0
Spaceport                97  63  99  63 /  10  10   0   0
Lake Roberts             93  56  94  57 /  10   0   0   0
Hurley                   95  62  95  62 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    99  61  99  60 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               94  60  95  59 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  95  66  95  64 /  10   0   0   0
Animas                   99  66 100  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  98  66  99  65 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           98  66  98  66 /   0  10   0   0
Cloverdale               92  65  93  65 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...37-Slusher