Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
962
FXUS64 KEPZ 290413
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1013 PM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1013 PM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026
- Moisture from tropical remnants of Polo will bring more widespread
showers and thunderstorms to the Borderland tonight. Storms
will be capable of heavy rain, gusty winds, and flash flooding,
especially over locations that have already received heavy
rain in recent weeks.
- New rain amounts around 2 inches across much of southern New Mexico,
with localized areas receiving 3 to 4 inches. A Flood Watch is
in effect into Wednesday morning.
- Wind Advisory in effect Tuesday through Wednesday morning
focusing over far west Texas and Otero county.
- Drier weather expected Thursday through the weekend as the moisture
is pushed eastward. Temperatures remaining cool into next
weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1013 PM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026
Pacific trough now over southern Nevada and continues to draw up
tropical moisture, partially from Polo, over New Mexico. The trough
is also drawing up tropical moisture from further west, but this is
mostly over Arizona. 00Z KEPZ sounding shows PW around 1.5 inches,
which is well above the daily record and sits around 250% of normal.
So between now and late Tue afternoon, the models show our highest
PWs and likely our window for heaviest rain and flash flooding.
Current radar is showing a bit of slack in the heavy rain, though
still raining decent over Dona Ana, Otero, El Paso and Hudspeth
Counties. Both hi-res and larger scale models pick the heavy
rainfall back up around 09Z-12Z Tuesday and continue into Tuesday
evening. This corresponds with the time Polo reaches the Mexican
mainland and then approaches our area. The heaviest rain looks to
start diminishing by around midnight Tuesday night, as the upper low
sits over central Arizona and looks to bring some dry slotting into
our area, at least briefly. The other items to watch for Tuesday
are strong winds associated with the dying circulation of ex-Polo
and severe weather. It looks like the remains will reach El Paso
or west Texas late Tuesday afternoon. Will leave Wind Advisory out
with respect to area, though I think west Texas zones and
southern Otero are most at risk for the winds. Will pare the
ending time back to midnight Tuesday night as the remnants quickly
exit to the northeast. The advisory could blend into possible
severe thunderstorm warnings for the winds.
Wednesday...the tropical moisture is mostly flushed out to our east
(PWs drop to around .5 to .7 inches) as the Pacific trough/low moves
across central New Mexico. Still expect isolated/scattered showers
or a thunderstorm much of the day, but the heavy rain/flood threat
should be over.
Thursday through Saturday...Pacific trough now well to our east, but
becomes quite positively tilted. Models show a weak upper low
cutting off and drifting back southwest over eastern New Mexico/west
Texas. Thus a few showers could be possible over the eastern CWA
toward Saturday.
Sunday through Tuesday...the cut off low phases in somewhat with the
outer circulation of Rachel, and forcing the upper high to northern
New Mexico. Thus some weak southerly flow develops along with some
advection of tropical moisture back up toward our area.
Both GFS/ECMWF show the moisture up into southern New Mexico Monday
and Tuesday, though does not look to be a strong northward push of
the moisture at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1013 PM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026
BKN-OVC100 OVC200. Scattered OVC060 -SHRA and widely scattered
OVC040CB 2-4SM +SHRA/+TSRA. Winds generally variable AOB 10
knots, though gusts to 35 knots possible near storms. Showers and
thunderstorms increasing in coverage by 12Z and becoming
widespread. Winds generally light overnight except near storms.
After 21Z...winds becoming quite gusty in the east with winds
initially south 15-25G45 knots and becoming west by 03Z. Winds
should begin tapering off after 06Z. The favorable area for these
winds is southern Dona Ana, El Paso, Hudspeth and eastern Otero
Counties.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 220 PM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026
Low fire weather concerns through the week ahead. Today`s the
beginning of another round of heavy rain. Rain will be seen all
across the forecast area this evening and especially into the
overnight hours. Continued rain showers with embedded thunderstorms
will continue into Tuesday but will start tapering off late Tuesday
and into Wednesday. One last quick round of showers expected
Wednesday morning over the Gila region and then spreading to more
areawide showers during the day Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday and
into the weekend.
Min RHS Tuesday will be 60-80% in the lowlands and 90-100% in the
mountains. Drier conditions Wednesday will dip RHs to 45-50% in the
lowlands and 70-85% in the mountains. RHs will stay in the 35-45%
range across the lowlands and 60-70% in the mountains Thursday and
through the weekend.
20 foot winds will become breezy and gusty tomorrow mostly for far
west TX and Otero counties. Winds will be out of the south at 15-25
mph with gusts to 45 mph possible. High terrain areas will stay
quite breezy Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning. Winds will be
breezy across the area Wednesday afternoon out of the west at 15-20
mph. A front looks to push into the area late Thursday and into
early Friday bringing breezy east winds to the area.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 66 80 60 74 / 80 80 80 10
Sierra Blanca 62 81 59 74 / 90 50 50 20
Las Cruces 63 73 55 71 / 80 90 90 10
Alamogordo 63 75 56 71 / 100 90 100 30
Cloudcroft 49 59 41 51 / 90 90 100 40
Truth or Consequences 62 69 54 71 / 90 90 90 10
Silver City 58 65 50 63 / 90 100 100 60
Deming 62 73 54 72 / 90 100 70 10
Lordsburg 62 70 53 69 / 90 100 90 30
West El Paso Metro 66 80 60 74 / 80 70 80 10
Dell City 65 83 61 76 / 80 80 80 10
Fort Hancock 68 89 64 82 / 90 50 50 10
Loma Linda 61 75 55 67 / 90 80 80 10
Fabens 66 85 61 78 / 90 60 60 10
Santa Teresa 64 77 58 72 / 80 80 80 10
White Sands HQ 64 76 59 72 / 80 80 90 20
Jornada Range 63 73 55 71 / 80 90 90 10
Hatch 64 74 56 74 / 80 90 80 10
Columbus 64 75 57 74 / 80 90 80 0
Orogrande 63 75 57 70 / 80 80 90 20
Mayhill 55 69 48 65 / 90 90 100 20
Mescalero 54 68 46 61 / 100 90 100 50
Timberon 52 64 47 59 / 90 90 100 40
Winston 55 63 46 65 / 90 100 90 30
Hillsboro 60 70 53 71 / 90 90 90 20
Spaceport 61 70 53 71 / 80 90 90 10
Lake Roberts 53 63 50 62 / 90 100 100 70
Hurley 58 67 51 66 / 90 90 90 40
Cliff 58 70 56 69 / 90 100 100 70
Mule Creek 55 65 53 65 / 100 100 90 80
Faywood 60 66 51 66 / 90 90 90 30
Animas 63 72 54 72 / 90 100 80 10
Hachita 61 72 53 71 / 90 100 80 10
Antelope Wells 62 73 54 73 / 90 100 70 0
Cloverdale 59 66 51 67 / 90 100 80 10
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through late Tuesday night for Eastern/Central El
Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio
Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-
Southern Hudspeth Highlands-Western El Paso County.
Wind Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to midnight MDT Tuesday night
for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth
Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El
Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern
Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands-
Western El Paso County.
NM...Flood Watch through late Tuesday night for Central Grant
County/Silver City Area-East Central Tularosa
Basin/Alamogordo-East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below
7500 Feet-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Lowlands of the
Bootheel-Northern Dona Ana County-Otero Mesa-Sacramento
Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Sierra County Lakes-Southeast
Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-
Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region
Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River
Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Uplands of the
Bootheel-Upper Gila River Valley-West Central Tularosa
Basin/White Sands-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below
7500 Feet.
Wind Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to midnight MDT Tuesday night
for East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-East Slopes
Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa-Sacramento
Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern
Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-West Central Tularosa
Basin/White Sands-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below
7500 Feet.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...17-Hefner