Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
491 FXUS64 KEPZ 040503 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1003 PM MST Mon Nov 3 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1000 PM MST Mon Nov 3 2025 - Near record warmth this week with lowland highs in the lower eighties. Dry weather and mostly light winds. - Cold front arrives next weekend, bringing cooler and more seasonal temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1000 PM MST Mon Nov 3 2025 Overall weather pattern signaling very quiet weather for our local area next few days. High pressure aloft across S TX will slowly subside, followed by a strong high-amplitude ridging pattern across the western U.S. late this week into next weekend. 500 mb jet flow remains fixed well to our north and unlikely to drive any sensible changes in the weather through the rest of the week. Temperatures will continue to run quite a bit above normal through at least Friday. Lowland highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s are 8 to 12 degrees warmer than climate normals. A few locations may be near or at daily records tomorrow. El Paso`s daily record for November 4 is 86 degrees (1988). Forecast high is 84 degrees. Light west flow, dry conditions, and above normal temperatures will linger through Friday. Next cold air outbreak across the High Plains timed for next weekend with the GFS depicting a strong 1040+ surface high over the Central Plains. This cold front is expected to reach our region, arriving from the east as a "backdoor" front sometime Saturday night into Sunday. Pattern recognition suggests this will be one of our stronger cool air blasts of the season so far. Potential exists for strong winds along west slopes of mountains and a 10-15 degree drop in temperatures. This would essentially bring us back closer to normal for early November. Another chilly morning next Monday is also possible. NBM has likely not captured the detailed wind gusts and temperature swings, as conflicting long-term models tend to blur extremes, which are more common with cold fronts. No precipitation expected through the first half of November. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1000 PM MST Mon Nov 3 2025 VMC through forecast period under dry, southwest flow aloft. Skies FEW-SCT250 tonight. Light and variable surface winds overnight, becoming west 5 to 10 knots tomorrow afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1000 AM MST Mon Nov 3 2025 No significant fire weather concerns, though the drying out of fuels will continue with lower humidity. Min humidities will remain in the critical category for the lowlands. No chance of rain through this weekend, and temperatures will remain well above normal. West breezes each afternoon of 10-15 mph, but back door cold front Saturday night could bring wind shift to the east and stronger gusts Saturday night/Sunday. Min RH: Lowlands 10-17% through Saturday. Mountains 13-23% through Saturday. Vent rates fair-good through Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 84 54 82 53 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 80 48 79 47 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 81 45 79 44 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 80 47 78 46 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 60 40 59 39 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 80 46 77 45 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 74 45 73 45 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 84 44 82 43 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 79 46 77 45 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 81 54 80 53 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 83 44 83 43 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 86 53 85 51 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 76 51 74 50 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 84 50 82 49 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 81 47 79 47 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 82 53 80 52 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 81 43 78 43 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 84 43 82 42 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 85 50 82 48 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 79 46 77 46 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 73 45 72 42 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 71 42 70 41 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 68 42 68 40 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 75 37 72 37 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 81 47 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 81 42 77 41 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 74 39 73 39 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 78 43 76 43 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 81 43 79 43 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 76 42 75 41 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 77 47 76 46 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 82 47 80 46 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 82 45 79 44 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 82 47 81 47 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 75 50 75 49 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt