Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
710 FXUS64 KEPZ 231121 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 421 AM MST Sun Nov 23 2025 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 349 AM MST Sun Nov 23 2025 - Scattered rain showers and gusty east winds tonight through Sunday morning, mostly across central New Mexico. - Snow showers for elevations above 8000 feet on Sunday with light accumulation of 1 to 2 inches. - Dry with seasonable temperatures for Monday through next week into Thanksgiving holiday period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 953 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2025 Upper low now over the northern Gulf of California. Initial trough from the low with attendant cold front now in SE Arizona, within a an hour to two from entering SW New Mexico. Fair amount of showers/tstms in SE Arizona with the front and just now moving into the NM Bootheel. Latest HRRR looks pretty good with this solution, maybe an hour slow, but will tailor grids and TAFs with this solution. Looks like CAMs want to limit the showers further east over the lowlands to the window right at the front and 1-3 hours behind it. Front to SVC-DMN 07Z-08Z, LRU-ELP 11Z-12Z, and east of the CWA by around 16Z. That should be it for most of the lowland precip for this event (fropa and 1-3 hours behind it), but showers could continue over Grant, Sierra and northern Otero Counties into Sunday afternoon as wrap around moisture and secondary trough rotate around the low across these northern CWA areas. Snow levels for the remainder to tonight should remain around 8500 ft Gila/Black Range and above 9000 ft Sacs. Snow levels lower to 8000 ft Sunday afternoon, but the precip should be about over. Thus 1-2 inches possible at these elevations. Upper low quickly exits into the central Plains Sunday night into Monday for rapid clearing across the CWA. Dry west/northwest flow aloft to persist into Thanksgiving as eastern Pacific ridge builds northward. This should give us very nice weather for the work week with seasonable high temps-perhaps a few degrees above normal. Friday and the weekend look more unsettled as a couple of short waves move through, culminating in a large upper low dropping down near our area. Still significant model differences as GFS keeps the low well north of New Mexico (windy pattern), while the ECMWF digs the low down to southern Arizona and New Mexico (showery pattern). This all for Sunday which is still just beyond the current forecast period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 349 AM MST Sun Nov 23 2025 VMC expected through the TAF period. ISO to SCT rain showers through 15Z at all terminals. ISO rain showers will remain possible through the afternoon, especially for KTCS, no mention in TAF after 15Z due to low confidence. Skies will be SCT to BKN at 6-10 kft accompanying vicinity showers. Skies will become FEW to SCT at 10-15 kft during the afternoon. Winds generally light at 3-7 knots and VRB this morning, becoming west at 8-13 knots with gusts to 18-23 knots this afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 349 AM MST Sun Nov 23 2025 Fire danger will remain low through the period. Upper level system over the southern Rockies will promote isolated to scattered showers over the forecast area on Sunday, with snow showers over the high terrain. Min RH values this afternoon will be above 30 percent across the lowlands, above 50 percent over the mountains. Temperatures this afternoon will be below average across southern NM, at or slightly above average for west TX. Winds will be best west at 8-15 mph with fair to good smoke ventilation rates. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 43 65 41 67 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 37 60 34 63 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 35 61 34 63 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 33 60 32 63 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 24 42 26 47 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 38 61 37 61 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 33 56 32 60 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 35 63 33 67 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 35 58 32 62 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 43 63 40 65 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 35 65 32 67 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 40 67 38 70 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 37 56 37 59 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 39 65 36 67 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 37 61 35 64 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 39 63 39 65 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 30 61 28 63 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 32 64 31 66 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 39 64 37 67 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 32 59 31 62 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 29 56 31 60 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 27 53 28 57 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 26 50 26 54 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 27 58 27 58 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 34 62 36 62 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 28 60 27 62 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 24 58 25 62 / 10 0 0 0 Hurley 32 58 31 61 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 28 61 30 66 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 25 58 24 62 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 34 59 35 61 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 38 60 35 65 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 35 60 32 63 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 34 63 35 65 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 35 56 37 61 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...38-Rogers