Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
090 FXUS64 KEPZ 101710 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1010 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1010 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025 - Morning temperatures near or below freezing for many areas again Tuesday morning. - Dry conditions with a warming trend through Thursday with no significant weather impacts. - A late-week storm system brings windy conditions on Friday and a chance of rain and high elevation snow showers late Friday through Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1010 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025 Overall, models are in good agreement with the main synoptic pattern over the next week but differ on details going into the weekend storm system. To start the period, broad upper ridge will pass over the area with warm days and cool nights. Tonight will actually end up being the coldest night for many areas this season. Winds will be light and skies will remain clear with dew points in the upper teens to lower 20s. A few spotty areas did reach 30-32 degrees in Luna, Dona Ana and the lower valley but not the main population areas. It looks like at least Deming and areas into Hidalgo County will get close to freezing tonight, but current thinking is temps will just barely hit freezing for a brief time and will not go with an additional freeze warning. Going into the remainder of the week, a warming trend through Wednesday/Thursday will bring back highs about 10 degrees above normal with lows falling off into the mid 30s to mid 40s. NBM temps seemed a little warm on lows and a little cool on highs so adjusted a few degrees on the lowlands and 10+ degrees on lows in the cold valleys. This will continue into Friday. Big changes look to come by Sat morning as a deep cutoff low dives through the Sierras and into Southern NM/Northern Mexico. GFS has been bouncing around with placement of this low and with timing. The trend with it has been slower which is a typical bias with models on handling of these lows. EC and GFS along with ensembles show a nice tap of moisture ahead of the low which bring some light to moderate precipitation amounts across the area. Generally 0.10-0.25" for the lowlands with some higher amounts in the mountains. There will be a switchover to snow Sat, starting out in the Gila region in the morning and in the Sacs during the afternoon. GFS has become colder with the core of the system which would drop snow levels to the 6000-6500ft level while the EC is keeping snow levels closer to 7500-8000ft. NBM seemed to handle this difference reasonably and have a mix in the forecast in these ranges. Could see several inches of snow in the highest elevations. Temperatures cool significantly across the region with highs starting Saturday with highs dropping 10-20 degrees and another 5-10 degrees(at least out east) for Sunday. Some lingering wrap around moisture could continue to affect the Sacs Sunday depending on exact timing. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1010 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025 P6SM SKC with winds AOB 10KTS through the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1010 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025 A warming trend with continued dry conditions are in store for the upcoming work week. High temperatures will again get into the 70s by midweek and RH`s falling into the teens with a few 20s in the mountains. No real wind concerns through Thursday but will start to increase Friday ahead of a strong storm system that will bring lowland rain and a mix in the mountains for the weekend. Light winds will help to keep vent rates poor to fair. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 39 75 45 79 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 36 71 40 74 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 34 72 37 74 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 33 73 39 74 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 37 57 36 57 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 39 74 44 74 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 40 70 45 72 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 32 76 36 79 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 34 74 38 76 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 38 73 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 30 75 34 78 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 38 78 43 80 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 38 66 43 69 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 34 75 41 79 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 35 73 38 76 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 37 74 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 29 72 32 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 32 76 35 78 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 35 76 41 79 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 34 69 38 72 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 35 69 37 70 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 34 65 34 68 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 33 63 32 64 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 30 71 34 70 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 37 75 43 76 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 31 74 39 74 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 25 73 28 72 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 32 71 38 73 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 30 75 31 75 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 26 73 29 73 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 34 72 41 74 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 33 76 40 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 32 75 37 77 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 35 76 41 79 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 40 72 45 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz