Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
778 FXUS64 KEPZ 251727 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1027 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 944 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2025 - Dry weather, with few clouds, mild seasonal temperatures, and generally light winds today through the entire work week, including Thanksgiving day. - We will see a cooling trend starting this weekend. - The next storm system looks to arrive late Sunday, with a 30 percent chance for precipitation Sunday night into Monday areas mostly west of the Rio Grande. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 944 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2025 The quiet weather pattern will continue across the region at least through Saturday. The state is under a dry northwest flow aloft that is being maintained by a strong ridge on the west coast. That ridge will shift east over the area for Thursday and will transition into a westerly zonal flow for Friday and Saturday. The overall pattern supports continued dry weather with mostly sunny skies and light winds through most of Saturday. Temperatures will continue to be seasonably mild, running a few degrees above normal with the warmest days being Thanksgiving Day and Friday. The weather pattern will start to become more active by late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night as the westerly flow aloft begins to tighten in response to an approaching low pressure system. There will be some westerly breeziness Saturday afternoon with day time heating and mixing. Sunday will bring further changes as a strong Arctic cold front will start to at least partially push into the area from the east and significantly lower temperatures for the region. After Sunday the weather becomes much more uncertain. Long range models and ensembles continue to have a wide variability on the strength and track of the the weather system. If it follows the trend of the past systems, the storm system will come into the area slower and on a more northerly track that will limit precip chances for the local area Sunday night through Monday night. For that time being the forecast at day 7 and 8 has a 30 percent chance for rain and mountain snow showers. This is a low confidence forecast that will likely change and bias drier as we get closer to the event. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 944 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2025 Quiet weather with VFR conditions through the valid period. Dry northwest flow will keep skies clear. Winds will be light and variable at around 5 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 944 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2025 High pressure ridging over the southwest part of the country and dry northwest to eventually west flow aloft will maintain quiet weather over the region through Saturday. Mostly sunny skies and light winds will occur through that period. Temperatures will be a few degrees above normal being warmest on Thursday and Friday. Minimum RH values will be in the 20 percent range with good overnight recoveries. Vent Rates will be good during the day. The pattern will change Saturday night into Sunday as a low pressure trough approaches the region. Longer range models remain variable on the strength and track of the system, keeping the forecast very uncertain. Two weather impacts that seem likely are temperatures and winds. An arctic push of cold is expected make it at least part way into the area by Sunday, significantly lower local temperatures. Winds are expected to become more breezy by Sunday which may continue into Monday. Chances for precip remain uncertain, but with colder air moving in, snow levels will much be lower should precip occur. A&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 40 66 40 70 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 33 61 35 66 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 33 61 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 31 61 33 65 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 23 44 27 50 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 35 60 36 62 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 33 59 34 62 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 34 64 33 67 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 33 62 31 65 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 41 64 41 67 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 32 62 30 68 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 36 69 38 73 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 36 59 38 62 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 36 66 37 70 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 35 63 35 65 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 39 63 40 66 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 27 61 28 64 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 31 64 30 67 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 36 65 37 67 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 33 61 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 26 59 32 62 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 25 55 30 61 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 23 51 27 57 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 25 57 26 59 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 35 61 35 62 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 29 61 30 63 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 27 61 29 65 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 31 59 32 62 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 29 66 27 69 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 27 63 28 65 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 34 59 35 62 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 31 64 32 66 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 31 62 30 64 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 31 64 33 65 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 37 60 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...04-Lundeen