Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
708 FXUS64 KEPZ 230002 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 502 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 352 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2025 - Scattered rain showers and gusty east winds tonight through Sunday morning, mostly across central New Mexico. - Snow showers for elevations above 8000 feet on Sunday with light accumulation of 1 to 2 inches. - Dry with seasonable temperatures for Monday through next week into Thanksgiving holiday period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1031 AM MST Sat Nov 22 2025 An active period of weather is expected tonight into Sunday. A strong low pressure system centered over the northern Baja peninsula will move into Arizona today and this evening, and then into northern New Mexico and Colorado on Sunday. Much of the moisture associated with this system will be focused on Arizona and northern and central portions of New Mexico. Southern New Mexico and far west Texas will get a glancing blow from this system with scattered showers later tonight and isolated to scattered showers on Sunday. The best chance for precipitation will be the Bootheel and Gila Region of southwest New Mexico with lesser spotty amounts further to the east. The El Paso and Las Cruces metro areas may see a isolated light showers after midnight through Sunday morning. Rain amounts overall will be light and spotty for the lowlands with better accumulations in the quarter to half an inch range for the mountain zones. Regarding snow, snow levels will remain high, above 8000 feet for much of this event with a rain snow mix to snow showers later on Sunday for areas above 7500 feet. Accumulations of 1 to 2 inches for the Black range and other mountains of the Gila Region is likely. For the Sacramento mountains on Sunday, snow amounts up to 4 inches for high elevations of Sierra Blanca mountain with more of a rain snow mix for other portions of the southern Sacs during the day for spotty accumulations up to an inch. For the remainder of the forecast period, rain chances will end by late Sunday afternoon as the weather system lifts out of the area and replaced by a dry northwest to west flow aloft. An extended dry period will occur Monday through next weekend with seasonal temperatures expected. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 501 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2025 Generally VFR with FEW100 SCT-BKN250. Spreading east with the cold front after 04Z...SCT080 BKN200 with isolated BKN050 5-7SM -SHRA. These conditions to about the RG Valley by 10Z and then remainder of area east of the RG Valley after 12Z. Isolated BKN040 5SM -SHSN above 8000 ft after 12Z. Showers mostly done over the lowlands by 15Z but could continue over the mountains til around 00Z. Surface winds east/southeast 12-17G30 knots ahead of the front and west/southwest 7-10 knots behind the front. The front expected to be to the RG Valley by around 12Z and east of the CWA by around 16Z. Low level wind shear southeast 35-40 knots over the counties adjacent to the International Border at around 020 ft from 03-10Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1031 AM MST Sat Nov 22 2025 Fire danger will remain low due to lingering moisture and expected rain showers for much of the area tonight and Sunday. Min RH 30-40%. East winds 10 to 15 mph this afternoon, with Fair ventilation. Scattered rain showers overnight into Sunday morning, bringing further wetting to mountain forests. Winds shift to the west 10 to 15 mph on Sunday as conditions become dry again. Good ventilation Sunday afternoon. Rest of next week looks to remain dry with Min RH 25-35%, seasonable temperatures, and generally light winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 49 66 43 63 / 20 20 0 0 Sierra Blanca 45 65 37 59 / 10 20 0 0 Las Cruces 41 59 35 60 / 30 20 0 0 Alamogordo 41 61 34 59 / 50 50 0 0 Cloudcroft 29 40 24 41 / 60 60 0 0 Truth or Consequences 41 58 38 60 / 60 20 0 0 Silver City 37 49 33 55 / 50 40 0 0 Deming 40 61 37 63 / 30 20 0 0 Lordsburg 39 56 36 56 / 70 30 0 0 West El Paso Metro 48 63 43 62 / 20 20 0 0 Dell City 41 67 35 64 / 10 30 0 0 Fort Hancock 48 71 41 66 / 10 10 0 0 Loma Linda 43 58 38 55 / 20 20 0 0 Fabens 46 67 40 64 / 10 20 0 0 Santa Teresa 45 61 39 60 / 20 20 0 0 White Sands HQ 47 62 42 62 / 40 30 0 0 Jornada Range 40 60 32 60 / 50 30 0 0 Hatch 42 62 33 63 / 60 20 0 0 Columbus 44 63 41 63 / 30 20 0 0 Orogrande 45 61 34 58 / 40 30 0 0 Mayhill 32 53 29 56 / 50 60 0 0 Mescalero 33 51 27 52 / 60 60 0 0 Timberon 32 49 26 50 / 50 60 0 0 Winston 32 50 28 57 / 80 20 0 0 Hillsboro 39 56 34 61 / 70 20 0 0 Spaceport 40 58 31 60 / 60 30 0 0 Lake Roberts 33 48 28 58 / 70 40 0 0 Hurley 36 53 32 57 / 40 20 0 0 Cliff 37 56 32 60 / 60 50 0 0 Mule Creek 35 51 30 57 / 70 40 0 0 Faywood 39 53 34 58 / 60 20 0 0 Animas 40 58 39 59 / 70 20 0 0 Hachita 37 58 36 58 / 50 20 0 0 Antelope Wells 39 60 34 62 / 40 10 0 0 Cloverdale 42 51 37 55 / 70 10 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...17-Hefner