382
FXUS64 KEWX 141131
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
631 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Key message:

- Low chances for isolated to scattered thunderstorms over the
eastern half of South-Central Texas both Saturday and Sunday
afternoons.

A mid-level ridge has pushed over TX from the western US leaving our
area under northwesterly flow tonight. Southerly to southeasterly
winds are keeping a warm, moist airmass in place over our CWA. Low
clouds are developing over the eastern half of the area and will
spread west by sunrise for a mostly cloudy start to the day. These
clouds will eventually give way to enough sunshine to build
convective clouds this afternoon that will build up from the coast.
Hi-res models are in general agreement for isolated showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon from the Coastal Plains into the I-35
Corridor. Convection should be short lived and end quickly with the
loss of heating. Temperatures today will be similar to yesterday
with highs near normal. Tonight should be similar to the current
night with low clouds developing keeping temperatures warm. Sunday a
shortwave trough will ride over the upper ridge across our eastern
areas and provide a bit more lift to generate showers and
thunderstorms. Coverage should be scattered and extend from the
Coastal Plains to the Hill Country and eastern Edwards Plateau.
Conditions through the short term favor ordinary thunderstorms with
only moderate rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Key messages:

- Chances of rain wane early to mid week, then increase late week

- Seasonable temperatures with elevated heat index values prevail

Subtropical ridging builds over our area early to mid week with
subsidence strengthening, then retreats late week with subsidence
weakening. Heating and a weak seabreeze are the only mechanisms to
generate showers and thunderstorms. Chances of showers and
thunderstorms are near the Coastal Plains early to mid week where
subsidence will be weakest, then spread west over most areas late
week as subsidence weakens.

It must be noted that occasional runs of a model have deviated at
times from this scenario. For example: The new 00Z GFS run drops an
MCS south into our area Sunday night and briefly develops a weak
upper level trough over our eastern areas Monday night into Tuesday
for higher chances of rain those periods. The ECMWF has a weaker
ridge and associated subsidence allowing rain chances to continue
farther to the west. The CMC shows an inverted trough moving onshore
to our south to enhance forcing and rain chances late week. As a
result, there may be changes to the forecast should that or other
solutions become more consistent and a consensus among the models
develops.

A lower level thermal ridge and southerly flow prevail through the
period. Evapotranspiration from our moist soils and vegetation due
to our recent rains results in near average temperatures and mildly
elevated afternoon heat index values.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

MVFR ceilings have settled over the terminals. San Antonio airports
may occasionally drop to IFR for the next few hours. All will rebound
to VFR by around noon. Low ceilings will develop again late tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              94  75  94  75 /  30  10  30  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  94  75  94  75 /  30  10  40  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     93  75  93  74 /  20  10  40   0
Burnet Muni Airport            93  73  91  73 /  20  10  30  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           99  78  99  77 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        93  75  93  74 /  30  10  30  10
Hondo Muni Airport             93  75  93  74 /  10   0  30   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        93  75  94  74 /  30  10  40  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   90  75  90  74 /  40  10  50  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       93  77  93  76 /  20  10  30   0
Stinson Muni Airport           94  77  94  76 /  20  10  30   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...05
Long-Term...04
Aviation...05