110
FXUS64 KEWX 310544 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1244 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1239 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

- Hot and mostly dry weather continues early this week.

- Increased chances for showers and storms mid to late week
  favoring the Coastal Plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 141 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Water vapor highlights a band of dry air spanning from the SE US
across Texas with subsidence along the southern half of the
subtropical ridge centered over OK/AR. This will suppress most rain
chances during the first part of the week, though modest mid-level
temperatures and persistent flow off the Gulf will support a chance
for spotty seabreeze showers with some potential for lightning each
afternoon and early evening, mainly over the Coastal Plains. These
chances are less than 20 percent this evening and Monday evening,
but a few spots may see some gusty winds and a brief round of rain.

The ridging will maintain mostly sunny and hot conditions across
South Central Texas Monday afternoon, but the displacement of the
warmest air aloft to the north indicates highs will generally be in
the upper 90s for most areas. Scattered highs ranging from 100 to
103 are still expected for the Coastal Plains and closer to the Rio
Grande.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 141 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

The key feature we`ll be monitoring this week is the tropical
disturbance located south of the Mississippi River Delta as of
Sunday afternoon, which presently has a medium (50%) chance of
organizing into a tropical depression or storm. This disturbance
is expected to be guided by the flow along the southern periphery
of the ridge towards the Upper Texas coast by about
Tuesday/Wednesday. Most models take the system towards Southeast
and East Texas before curving north, but as the subtropical ridge
slides farther east, steering winds are forecast to slacken. This
could result in the disturbance drifting west closer to our area
once inland if it doesn`t catch the northward flow on the backside
of the ridge. There is still substantial variance in outcomes, so
for now the main message is that we`ll likely see an increase in
cloud cover and rain chances primarily along and east of I-35 late
Tuesday through Thursday. Rain chances could linger into Friday,
though this would likely require a more sluggish track along the
western side of the current model guidance distribution similar to
that depicted by the GFS/AIGFS.

The disturbance is small in size, so for now rain chances in the
midweek period are still below 40 percent over the Coastal Plains.
Temperatures could moderate more if the disturbance comes closer,
but its stature and uncertainty result in relatively modest
imprint in the average national model blend with highs still
projected to remain in the upper 90s with occasional spots in the
low 100s. More aggressive cloud cover or showers would bring highs
closer to the low 90s as depicted in the 10th percentile NBM.

The weekend forecast hinges on the ultimate fate of the tropical
disturbance, but the broader pattern suggests a general weakening of
ridging across the southern tier of the US. This leaves the
environment over South Central Texas more open to seabreeze showers
and isolated inland convective development, either associated with
or independent of the tropical disturbance. Thus, the forecast
maintains low to medium rain chances next weekend, with the best
chances over the Coastal Plains and lower chances tapering off
towards the I-35 corridor and Hill Country.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

VFR is in place, but low cloud development is still expected along
I-35 after 09Z. We will keep prevailing MVFR in place at SAT and
SSF along with TEMPO conditions at AUS. A fairly quick transition
to VFR is expected by late morning as winds generally remain south
to southeast through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry             100  77 100  77 /   0   0  10  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 100  77  99  77 /   0   0  10  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     99  75  99  75 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            97  73  97  74 /   0   0  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport          100  77 100  78 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        99  76  99  76 /   0   0  10  10
Hondo Muni Airport             98  73  99  73 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        99  75  99  75 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional  100  77  99  77 /   0   0  20  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       98  77  99  77 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport          100  76 101  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM....MMM
AVIATION...Platt