Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
436 FXUS64 KEWX 101122 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 522 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Light freezes expected around sunrise across portions of the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country on Monday, then low lying spots near the escarpment, I-35 corridor and Coastal Prairies Tuesday - Warm again mid week into next weekend - Elevated fire weather conditions for Coastal Prairies Monday, and elevated to near critical fire weather conditions over most of South Central TX Tuesday && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1200 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 For today expect a much cooler day as temps only reach into the upper 50s to mid 60s for highs. We will start the day close to freezing for many areas in the Hill Country where a Freeze Warning remains in effect until 9am. Those waking up early could experience wind chills in the 20s across much of the area. It will certainly feel significantly cooler than Sunday due to the continued northerly winds though not nearly as strong as they were Sunday. We could see the possibility of another light freeze Tuesday morning for areas along and east of the I-35 Corridor as excellent radiational cooling could commence with winds decoupling after sunset with clear skies. Will have to monitor as a freeze warning for these areas. Wind chills won`t be as cold as the previous night. For the areas across the Hill Country and Southern Edwards Plateau, expect low temps Monday night to be a couple degrees warmer as winds should stay a bit more elevated through the night, thus not allowing temps to drop as much. Highs Tuesday should rebound nicely into the 70s as the trough and subsequent cold front that moved through our area over the weekend will be long gone and out of area. The return of upper level ridging building to our west and low level southerly flow should help promote and increase our fire danger as well (see Fire Section below). Southerly winds could become gusty once again leading to elevated to possibly critical fire weather conditions as moisture will take some time to make it over our area. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1200 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 For today expect a much cooler day as temps only reach into the upper 50s to mid 60s for highs. We will start the day close to freezing for many areas in the Hill Country where a Freeze Warning remains in effect until 9am. Those waking up early could experience wind chills in the 20s across much of the area. It will certainly feel significantly cooler than Sunday due to the continued northerly winds though not nearly as strong as they were Sunday. We could see the possibility of another light freeze Tuesday morning for areas along and east of the I-35 Corridor as excellent radiational cooling could commence with winds decoupling after sunset with clear skies. Will have to monitor as a freeze warning for these areas. Wind chills won`t be as cold as the previous night. For the areas across the Hill Country and Southern Edwards Plateau, expect low temps Monday night to be a couple degrees warmer as winds should stay a bit more elevated through the night, thus not allowing temps to drop as much. Highs Tuesday should rebound nicely into the 70s as the trough and subsequent cold front that moved through our area over the weekend will be long gone and out of area. The return of upper level ridging building to our west and low level southerly flow should help promote and increase our fire danger as well (see Fire Section below). Southerly winds could become gusty once again leading to elevated to possibly critical fire weather conditions as moisture will take some time to make it over our area. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1200 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 As the high pressure pushes off to our east low temps for Tuesday night should increase 10 to 20 degrees over those from Tuesday morning, as moisture continues to funnel in on the backside of these southerly winds all but ensuring warmer lows. The warming trend continues through the work week with many areas seeing above normal temps in the 80s once again before another polar trough brings the next weather change. Several long term global models and ensemble members are hinting at this possibility of a deep upper level trough trying to swing through our area. It remains to be seen just how far south this trough digs and what impacts we may see locally here. At the moment have low chances (20-405%) on rain Saturday to account for this uncertainty as its still a ways out. Things can and likely will change but confidence is increasing that we will remain in an active zonal pattern for the next several days. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 520 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 VFR conditions through the TAF period under clear skies. N to NE winds around 10 KT along and east of the I-35 corridor today. Winds across the Hill Country and along the Rio Grande have become variable around 5 KT or less, and a SE around 5-10 KT is forecast to develop by midday along the Rio Grande. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1200 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 While little change in minimum humidities is expected on Monday, winds will be decreasing during the day. However, they could remain high enough into the afternoon during the time of lowest humidity thus creating possibly elevated fire weather conditions east of the I-35 corridor to near the Coastal Plains. Southerly flow resumes on Tuesday, however the moisture return will be slower keeping minimum humidities in the upper teens to 20s. Near critical to possibly critical fire weather conditions are expected on Tuesday with the potential for Fire Danger statements or Red Flag Warnings being needed on Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 62 39 73 55 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 61 34 73 52 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 62 36 73 52 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 58 39 70 52 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 67 42 74 48 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 59 35 72 53 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 64 36 73 47 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 62 33 73 52 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 59 36 74 55 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 63 39 72 52 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 64 40 74 53 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ171>173- 184>190. && $$ SHORT TERM...CJM LONG TERM....CJM AVIATION...76