539
FXUS64 KEWX 161902
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
202 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 200 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

- Low rain chances generally along and east of I-35 Thursday.

- Temperatures are expected to remain above normal through the
  period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Early afternoon trends compared to 24 hours ago show temperatures
are running a little lower, while humidity trends are a little
higher. We did make some minor changes to the forecast earlier,
but for the most part, forecast highs are on track today.
Southeast to east winds remain intact tonight leading to warm
overnight lows along with enough moisture to promote low cloud
development for most areas into Thursday morning. An increase in
moisture on Thursday along with daytime heating should still help
generate some afternoon and evening convection for areas generally
along and east of I-35. The hi-res models tend to show a little
less coverage vs. model runs from yesterday, so will keep rain
chances in the 20-50% range with the coastal plains favored. The
heat and humidity will boost some isolated afternoon heat index
values near 108 degrees in the coastal plains. At this time, due
to the limited coverage and brief nature, we will hold off on a
Heat Advisory at this time. Most areas remain dry Thursday night
into Friday morning. However, some increased moisture from the
coastal plains westward into the Rio Grande plains south of Del
Rio could aid in the development of isolated convection.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Strong high pressure in the mid and upper levels will build into
the region on Friday and remain in place through the upcoming
weekend. Although this area of high pressure is expected to weaken
during the weekend, we still expect to see well above normal
temperatures along with dry weather for most of the region. The
exception will be near the coastal plains on Saturday as the
seabreeze may aid in some afternoon showers or storms. In
addition, the edge of monsoonal moisture may bring a stray shower
or storm to far northwestern Val Verde County on Sunday.

For early next week high pressure remains in place, but does
continue to slowly weaken, while a fairly persistent area of broad
low pressure remains over the northern Gulf. Developing southwest
flow aloft and marginal moisture levels may yield some low rain
chances early next week. However, rainfall amounts would likely
remain very low. In addition, above normal warmth will persist
well into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

VFR flight conditions prevail from this afternoon into tonight
with mostly fair weather cumulus and increasing high level cloud
cover. A region of low clouds then establish closer to sunrise
and could result in some MVFR ceilings for a time at the San
Antonio terminals (KSAT and KSSF). Low clouds may approach KDRT
mid-morning but will elect to keep the areal coverage in the
scattered range for now. VFR conditions return to all the area
sites by midday. The coastal plains is most favored for any
isolated to scattered showers and storm activity for this
afternoon and Thursday afternoon. We`ll monitor if any activity
is able to approach the I-35 corridor and the areal terminals
but confidence is too low to insert within the TAF package
during this time. East-southeasterly breezes trend into this
evening with gusts at times in excess of 20 kts with speeds then
diminishing after midnight. Winds then turn more easterly and
increase slightly into and through Thursday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              78 100  76  99 /   0  20  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76  99  75  99 /   0  20  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  98  74  98 /   0  20  20  10
Burnet Muni Airport            74  97  73  95 /   0  10  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           77  99  77  97 /   0   0  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        77  99  75  98 /   0  10  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             74  98  74  97 /   0  10  20  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  99  73  98 /   0  20  20   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   77  98  75  98 /   0  20  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       77  98  77  97 /  10  20  20  10
Stinson Muni Airport           77 100  76  99 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...Platt