446
FXUS64 KEWX 020631
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1231 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1229 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

- Warm and humid through Tuesday with low clouds and at least some
patchy fog each morning.

- Cold front passage overnight Monday night into Tuesday morning
with  a line of rain and storms; a few strong to severe storms are
possible.

- A drier airmass arrives Tuesday behind the front with cooler
  mornings and mild, but pleasant afternoons.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1229 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Patchy fog is possible this morning as moisture remains pooled
across our area though not expecting as dense of fog as we saw this
past morning. Eventually an upper level low currently located over
the rockies will deepen and progress eastward bringing with it a
trailing cold front through our area. Models are in very good
agreement that we should start to see the effects of this front by
this evening as a broken line of showers and thunderstorms should
advance out and ahead of it. Models have this line moving through
our area fairly quickly from north to south. Timing wise, there
could certainly be enough instability along with deep layer shear
especially across the western Hill Country and Southern Edwards
Plateau to generate a few strong to perhaps severe storms. However
as we lose daylight and the front advances into the I-35 Corridor
overnight, the severe threat should rapidly decrease. As such SPC
continues to highlight most areas along and north and west of I-35
in a level 1 of 5 risk. A level 2 of 5 risk is noted just a few
counties northwest of our CWA. If trends continue with models
bringing the front in even faster I wouldn`t be surprised if the
level 2 risk is expanded into our northeastern-most counties. The
main risks continue to be damaging winds and large hail with the
better threat and forcing for tornadoes located across north TX and
into Oklahoma closer to where the low will be. By Tuesday morning
most activity should be over the I-35 corridor with all shower and
thunderstorm activity pushing into the Coastal Plains by late
morning and eventually out of our area entirely by noon or perhaps
sooner.

Regarding highs, most areas will be significantly warmer today prior
to the fronts arrival with highs well into the 80s. Lows tonight
will remain very mild with widespread temps only dropping into the
lower 60s north to upper 60s south. A much different story regarding
highs Tuesday as increased cloud cover and rain cooled air will keep
temps about 10 degrees cooler with most staying in the 70s as the
front continues making its way through the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1229 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

The cold front mentioned previously should be well southeast of our
area by Tuesday evening leaving with it a much drier airmass and
somewhat windy conditions. We are not however expecting nearly as
strong of winds as we had during our last front. Wednesday and
beyond we should experience much more pleasant weather with highs in
the 70s, and lows in the 40s and 50s. Though the biggest change will
be the humidity as we will go from seeing dewpoints in the 60s and
low 70s prior to the arrival of the front to seeing 50s and some
upper 40s after the front. This will certainly help things to feel
more seasonable and fall like compared to our recent stretch of
summerlike weather. Global models are hinting at another front
moving over our area over the weekend but consistency and timing
issues remain. For now enjoy the beautiful fall like weather for
this upcoming week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

All terminals are currently VFR. Low ceilings will develop
overnight at all area TAF sites. AUS will bottom out at MVFR while
the San Antonio and Del Rio areas will drop to IFR. All terminals
will rebound to VFR by around noon Monday. Southerly winds will
become gusty Monday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              86  68  77  55 /   0  80  70   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  86  68  77  52 /   0  70  80   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     85  67  78  53 /   0  40  80   0
Burnet Muni Airport            83  64  73  52 /   0  90  30   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           85  65  76  55 /   0  60   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        86  66  75  51 /   0  90  70   0
Hondo Muni Airport             85  67  79  53 /   0  70  40   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        86  68  78  51 /   0  50  80   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   87  68  79  52 /   0  20  90   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       83  69  77  55 /   0  60  70   0
Stinson Muni Airport           85  70  79  56 /   0  40  70   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...05