634
FXUS64 KEWX 131829
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
129 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 124 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

- Hot and mostly dry summer weather continues this week. Practice
  heat safety and stay cool and hydrated.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 124 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

The juxtaposition of strong ridging over the eastern Gulf and a weak
inverted trough over the southwestern Gulf will increase low-level
moisture advection slightly over the area through Friday. The
primary concern with this pattern is elevated heat as dew points
remain at a high baseline, particularly for the Coastal Plains. A
Heat Advisory is currently in effect for some of our Coastal Plains
counties to 6 PM this evening. For Friday, the overall hi-res model
consensus is that the reduction in ambient temperatures associated
with Gulf moisture will be just enough to offset the increase in
humidity, but it should nonetheless be hot Friday afternoon with
heat indices mainly in the 105 to 108F range in the Coastal
Plains to I-35 corridor. Elsewhere, forecast heat indices range
from 100-105F across most other areas.

The arriving moisture is expected to be accompanied by
isolated showers Friday afternoon, with sparse coverage and 20% rain
chances indicated in the Coastal Plains to Rio Grande Plains. Most
will stay dry, and the rain for those receiving it will tend to be
brief.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 124 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

The aforementioned Gulf ridging will steadily slosh farther west
into our area this weekend, and throughout next week it will extend
across much of the southern tier of the US with our region near its
center. This will keep the repetetive cycle of hot and sunny weather
going into late August without any discernible chance for rain.
Highs each day will remain in the upper 90s to around 103F with
peak heat indices generally around 100-106F each day. As the heat
continues, it will remain especially important to have continued
access to cooling and hydration.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

VFR flight conditions and breezy south to southeasterly winds will
prevail through the early overnight. Expect mostly to completely
clear skies with gusts at times as high as 25 to 27 kts at the
area terminals. Winds subside slightly after midnight and expect a
low MVFR stratus deck to develop and expand across the region in
the overnight into at least mid-morning Friday. The low stratus
looks to trend more expansive compared to the last few nights
across the region, including reaching portions of the Rio Grande,
including KDRT. Expect for VFR conditions to return by Friday
afternoon at all sites. Friday may not be quite as breezy as today
but will still remain persistent from the south-southeast with
gusts to around 20 to 25 kts. There is a low chance for few rain
showers or a storm on Friday afternoon but confidence of impact to
the terminal sites is too low to include within the TAF at this
time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77  99  78  99 /   0  10  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  77  98  78  99 /   0  10   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     76  98  77  99 /   0  10  10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            75  97  75  97 /   0   0  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           78 100  78  99 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        76  98  77  98 /   0  10   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             75  97  75  97 /   0  10  10   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        76  98  77  99 /   0  10  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   77  97  78  99 /   0  20   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       78  98  79  98 /   0  10  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           78 100  78 100 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ207-221>225.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tran
LONG TERM....Tran
AVIATION...62