Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
979 FXUS64 KEWX 040550 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1250 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Above average temperatures continue with low end (10-20%) rain chances early to middle of next week && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 A weak upper level low along or just off the Louisiana coast looks to remain too far away to provide much influence to our region this weekend. Best opportunity for any rain would be confined near the lower to middle Texas coast. Today looks to stay rain free across our region outside from perhaps a late day very brief light shower while Sunday afternoon may be a little better for the sea breeze bringing a few showers into our far southeastern counties. The temperatures remain above average otherwise under partly to mostly clear skies. The afternoon highs range from the mid to upper 80s across portions of the Hill Country to the low to mid 90s for the rest of the region. Nights are mild with the overnight lows from the low to mid 60s to near 70 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 The upper level low along the northern Gulf coast erodes entering the start of the workweek. It is supplanted quickly by mid-level ridging building across the northern Gulf. The positioning of the ridge initially through early next week could help to deepen and increase the onshore flow slightly into Texas, which should help draw some slightly higher moisture levels farther inland. Late Tuesday through Wednesday could see the arrival of high clouds as well with some ties to the Eastern Pacific. There looks like that enough moisture is in play to maintain PoPs in the 10-20% range Monday through Wednesday. Monday favors to the east of I-35 while Tuesday and Wednesday could see the Hill Country and Rio Grande involved. Rain chances diminish late week as the ridge slides westward and becomes more centered over the state. With this position, the ridge should also keep any deeper moisture from the Bay of Campeche confined well to our south. Temperatures remain steady and above average through next week as well with highs ranging from the mid 80s in portions of the Hill Country to the low to mid 90s elsewhere. Lows from the mid 60s into the low 70s will be common. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 VFR flying conditions will prevail overnight through Saturday night. Increased lower level moisture may allow for the development of MVFR CIGs early-mid morning on Saturday as forecast moisture profiles suggest. HREF probabilities are 10% or less at the sites with higher probabilities of 30 to 60% over the Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country. Have introduced SCT010 at KSAT/KSSF/KDRT and will monitor trends for any CIGs. Light winds overnight mix to E to SE at 7 to 12 KTs on Saturday with a brief increase to 10 to 16 KTs with gusts to 25 KTs early in the evening. Speeds then decrease Saturday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 93 69 93 70 / 0 0 0 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 93 66 93 68 / 0 0 0 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 93 66 93 68 / 0 0 0 10 Burnet Muni Airport 88 66 89 67 / 0 0 0 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 92 70 92 71 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 90 66 91 68 / 0 0 0 10 Hondo Muni Airport 92 67 92 69 / 0 0 0 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 93 66 93 67 / 0 0 0 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 93 67 93 69 / 0 0 10 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 92 69 92 71 / 0 0 0 10 Stinson Muni Airport 93 70 93 71 / 0 0 0 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...62 LONG TERM....62 AVIATION...04