891
FXUS62 KFFC 121101
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
701 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 256 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Key Messages:

 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms today with a
   near zero severe thunderstorm threat.

 - Increasing moisture/humidity with widespread showers and
   thunderstorms on Friday.

Today will mark the start of a transition to a wetter and more
humid pattern that will last through the weekend. The primary
drivers of this pattern will be a slow-moving upper level low
over the southern Plains and a sprawling surface high over the
western Atlantic. In response, low- to mid-level winds will turn
southerly today and pump moisture into the area, with PWAT values
rising to 1.82.1. This surge in moisture will support scattered
showers on its own, but when combined with daytime heating and
instability (10001500 J/kg MUCAPE), conditions will support
numerous showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and
evening. While the severe threat is near zero due to weak wind
shear, a few strong storms with gusty winds, frequent lightning,
and heavy rain are still possible. A localized flooding threat
could materialize if an area receives multiple rounds of showers
and storms in a short period.

Tomorrow, the upper-level low/trough will lift northeast over the
Ozarks, reinforcing the south-southwest flow and the surge in
moisture across Georgia. This will support even higher chances for
showers and thunderstorms, which will become widespread during
the afternoon and evening. Again, a few strong storms are
possible with gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rain.
There is also some potential for the environment to support a
severe thunderstorm or two, primarily across northwest Georgia,
where effective wind shear could increase to 2025 kt and
instability (MUCAPE) could reach 15002000 J/kg. With PWAT values
rising into the 1.92.2 range, there is again potential for
localized flooding in areas that experience repeated rounds of
showers and storms.

Conditions will be warm and muggy, with high temps ranging from
the mid 80s in north Georgia to the upper 80s to low 90s in
central Georgia. Overnight lows will only fall to around 70.

Culver

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Key Messages:

 - Enhanced moisture will continue across the region under the
   influence of southerly flow.

 - Diurnally driven rain chances expected through the extended
   period.

 - High temperatures expected near seasonal norms with with lows
   remaining 3-7 deg above.

No major changes made to the extended period. By Fri night the
Bermuda like surface ridge centered over the western Atlantic will
have weakened a bit and pulled away slightly from the SC/GA/FL
coast. With the this ridge weakening, very good gulf moisture
streams around the ridge putting GA in good moist southerly flow.
This ridge stays fairly stationary through the weekend keeping GA
in a very wet pattern. By Mon, the ridge slides a bit further
south allowing the over all flow to become a bit more westerly.
This will let shortwaves over the Mid MS river valley to move in
across the area Mon and Tues. As such, an active weather pattern
is forecast to persist into next week, with PoPs around 65-85%
each afternoon. PWs stay in the 1.5" to 2.5" range through the
extended periods. Instability indices will also be diurnally
driven with capes getting up into the 500-1500J/Kg range everyday.

Because of the continued precip chances daytime highs will be
mainly in the 80s to near 90 each day with night time lows in the
60s to near 70.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 734 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Primarily low VFR to brief MVFR SCT-BKN CIGs through the period.
Possible MVFR VIS in BR through 14Z for northern TAF sites. Best
chances for -TSRA today will come between 18-24Z areawide, but
may extend until midnight. Light and variable winds pick up out
of the SE at 5-7kts by 14-15Z, before becoming light and variable
again after 02Z. Could see a switch to SSW winds for a few hours
at ATL this evening but confidence on that is low. MVFR to IFR
CIGs or worse are likely after 08Z on Friday, improving by 15Z.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...

Medium confidence on CIGs and TSRA. High confidence all other
elements.

Culver

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          86  69  85  70 /  80  70  80  60
Atlanta         85  71  85  71 /  70  50  70  50
Blairsville     80  64  80  65 /  80  50  90  60
Cartersville    85  69  86  70 /  70  40  80  50
Columbus        90  71  89  71 /  70  40  80  30
Gainesville     83  69  83  70 /  80  60  80  60
Macon           89  70  88  71 /  70  60  80  40
Rome            85  69  86  70 /  70  50  80  50
Peachtree City  87  69  86  70 /  70  50  70  40
Vidalia         91  72  89  73 /  80  60  90  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Culver
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...Culver