854
FXUS62 KFFC 130009
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
809 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

...Evening Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy dense fog may be a potential hazard overnight and early
  Monday morning especially in areas that received heavy rainfall
  earlier in the day.

- Numerous to widespread thunderstorms will develop today and
  tomorrow, continuing late into the night. Some storms this
  afternoon may become strong to severe and capable of producing
  gusty to damaging wind gusts up to 50-60 mph, locally heavy
  rainfall, and frequent lightning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 802 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Scattered convection continues across North and west-central GA
this evening. With the loss of daytime heating things should
begin to wind down over the next few hours. However, periods of
rain and rumbles of thunder will provide nice sleeping weather for
some overnight. The Severe Thunderstorm Watch across parts of
east- central Georgia was allowed to expire at 8PM as that wave of
activity pushed east. Additionally, the heat advisory in roughly
the same area was also allowed to expire. Overnight, lower clouds
and patchy dense fog will move in/develop, especially in areas
that received a decent amount of rainfall earlier in the day. Any
fog is likely to become more prevalent early Monday morning
potentially impacting the morning commute. Depending on how
quickly things develop/evolve a Dense Fog Advisory may be
warranted.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

The synoptic pattern remains relatively unchanged with a stout near
600dam H500 ridge pivoting from the central Rockies into the
Northern Plains. Farther downstream, east of the Mississippi River,
a weak upper trough and associated upper low continues to slowly
drop from the Ohio Valley across the Southern Appalachians today
through tomorrow. At the same time, surface high pressure settling
over New England will drop a weak backdoor front south across the
Carolinas and towards Georgia, especially through the day on Monday.
These features interacting with an anomalously moist airmass (PWATs
in the 90th percentile for mid July) will foster the development of
numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms both this afternoon
and then again on Monday. Early afternoon visible satellite imagery
depicts a rather robust cumulus field just south of the Atlanta
metro with deeper updrafts supporting ice aloft and lightning
production as of this writing. This activity resides within a
moderately unstable airmass characteristic of 2500-4000 J/kg of
surface-based CAPE, steep low-level lapse rates and a pocket of 700-
1000 J/kg of DCAPE. ACARS soundings from ATL also depict inverted-v
profiles within the sub-clooud layer extending to at least 900mb
with potential deepening to as high as 850mb. As such, any more
robust cores will be capable of producing locally damaging
microbursts, especially with any convective clusters that can grow
upscale along composite cold pools. Farther north, more extensive
cloud cover has inhibited more robust instability with more shallow
cumulus noted west of just north of Atlanta. With additional time
and arriving forcing, convection should gradually expand in coverage
to the north as well.

The presence of synoptic forcing will allow convection to linger and
perhaps redevelop beyond the traditional summer pulse climo window.
The 12z suite of CAM guidance depicts lingering clusters of
convection overnight, especially across the north Georgia mountains
where at least some component of the flow will be aligned favorable
for orographic enhancement. The aforementioned PWATs will also
support healthy rainfall rates and any convective training or slow
moving cores will be capable of isolated flash flooding, especially
within urban settings or mountain locations with topographical
anchoring.

By Monday, the weak closed upper low settles more directly over the
area and will likely allow for another round of numerous to
widespread showers and thunderstorms. Copious amounts of cloud cover
will result in temperatures a good bit below climo with highs in the
low to mid 80s, which will have implications on available
instability. Despite sufficient coverage of storms, weaker CAPE with
poorer lapse rates and notably less DCAPE will generally limit
severe potential. Although with any summer storms, an isolated wet
microburst or two cannot be completely ruled out. Isolated flash
flooding will also have to be watched as slow moving storm clusters
and boundary interactions could yield pockets of locally higher
rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 225 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Tuesday picks up with more rain expected across the CWA. The cut off
low delivering our current rounds of precip will begin to slowly
meander to the west underneath a breaking upper level ridge over the
northern portions of the CONUS. For Wednesday, this means PoPs will
return to a more of a typical summer pattern with late afternoon and
evening storms driven by daytime heating. Large upper level low is
progged to move over the NE going into Wednesday and Thursday. Our
pattern stalls a bit large ridge building over the central to
western portions of the CONUS, with troughing over the NE. By end of
week this may bring low pressure trough down the Appalachians that
could help to suppress some of the afternoon convection.

Temperatures are still forecast to slowly rise through the week.
With rain and cloud cover sticking around, temperatures will be 5-10
degrees below average Tuesday with highs in the 80s (and some areas
in the mountains only getting into the 70s!). Expect highs to rise
to the upper 80s to low 90s by Wednesday, becoming "seasonable" in
the low to mid 90s across the area through the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 739 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

SCT shra/tsra continue, impacting most terminals from now through
05-06z before coverage subsides and cigs/vsbys start to drop. VFR
will become IFR (possibly LIFR) across most sites after 06z
lasting thru at least 14z Monday. Improvement to MVFR/low VFR by
15-16z. Afternoon convection expected once again as early as
17-18z. Outside of tsra, SW winds taper overnight becoming light
and vrb, and shifting to the SE side after 14z.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...

Medium confidence on all elements.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  82  68  81 /  70  80  80  90
Atlanta         71  84  70  82 /  70  70  80  90
Blairsville     64  77  63  78 /  80  90  50  70
Cartersville    70  83  69  83 /  70  80  70  80
Columbus        72  86  71  86 /  60  70  50  90
Gainesville     69  80  68  79 /  90  80  80  80
Macon           71  86  69  85 /  60  80  60  90
Rome            69  83  68  82 /  70  90  70  80
Peachtree City  70  84  69  82 /  60  70  70  90
Vidalia         73  89  71  88 /  60  80  60  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Winesett
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...07