532
FXUS62 KFFC 101015
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
615 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected
  Friday, becoming numerous to widespread over the weekend.

- A few storms through this weekend may become strong to severe
  with gusty to damaging wind gusts up to 50-60 mph and locally
  heavy rainfall.

- Heat index values peak between 95-108 through Saturday. A Heat
  Advisory is in effect for portions of east central Georgia from
  12PM-8PM today.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 248 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Sensible weather through Saturday will be governed by the
combination of progressively more northwesterly flow at the mid-
levels and southwesterly flow around the western periphery of the
Bermuda High at the surface. The combination of the two, and PWATs
of 1.5" or greater, will support continued chances for diurnally-
driven convection capable of efficient rainfall production. Any
disturbances traversing mid-level flow will help to bolster coverage
(and perhaps intensity) beyond that of a typical summer day. Today,
a shortwave will nudge southeastward across north and central
Georgia, which when combined with remnant outflow boundaries from
yesterday afternoon/evening`s cluster of storms, will support
additional organization into a quasi-line. Expect activity to breach
northwest Georgia this afternoon, filtering to the south and east
well into the evening. HiRes guidance suggests a secondary wave is
possible after midnight, with coverage lingering through the morning
on Saturday. At least as far as this afternoon is concerned,
simulated model soundings show inverted-V structures indicative of
downburst potential (corresponding to DCAPE of 800 J/kg or higher),
and a Marginal (level 1 out of 5) Risk has been analyzed across the
northern half of the forecast area to highlight more favorable
thermodynamics. Damaging wind gusts will be possible in the
strongest storms that form.

Similarly, tomorrow will also receive a synoptic boost beyond what
we typically expect of summertime pulse convection, with a broader,
negatively-titled trough sweeping across the midsection of the
country. Coverage is likely to be higher (60-80% chances) earlier
than in previous days, with chances for redevelopment in the
afternoon/evening. As PWATs are progged to approach 2" on Saturday,
concerns regarding water-loaded downdrafts will increase (given
minimal changes in the thermodynamically favorable environment from
Friday), supporting a continued isolated damaging wind threat. With
a sliver of northwest Georgia outlooked in a Slight (level 2 out of
5) Risk, will need to monitor for any potential changes in shear
profiles that would give the regime an additional nudge, ceiling-
wise.

Given relatively weak steering flow, and an environment
approaching climatological maximums moisture-wise, care will need
to be taken to monitor for locally heavy rainfall leading to
isolated flash/nuisance flooding concerns.

Marginal heat concerns will continue through the start of the
weekend, despite increasing convective coverage gradually helping to
tamp down on diurnal heating. Highs/maximum air temperatures along
and north of I-85 will be in the mid-80s to lower 90s through
tomorrow, with the upper-90s to lower-100s possible for areas
further south. As heat index values look to max out between 105 and
108 degrees today, a Heat Advisory is in effect for portions of
southeast central Georgia through 8PM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 248 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Late Saturday into the overnight hours, a shortwave trough will move
southeast from the lower Midwest towards the Tennessee Valley
region, which will nudge a cold front closer to the forecast area.
Scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will be ongoing
in portions of north Georgia during the pre-dawn hours on Sunday.
With ample moisture (dewpoints in the mid 70s and precipitable water
values between 1.75-2 inches) and convergence ahead of the front,
showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous during the
daytime, peaking in coverage during the afternoon hours. Increased
cloud cover will keep high temperatures limited to the mid to upper
80s across north Georgia compared to low 90s in central Georgia.
Warm and humid conditions will allow MUCAPE values to climb to
between 1500-2500 J/kg during the peak heating hours. This
instability and increased shear ahead of the front will allow for a
few storms to become strong to severe, capable of producing damaging
wind gusts. Stronger storms will also be capable of producing
locally heavy rain. With the high coverage of storms, a few
locations could see flash flooding where multiple storms move over a
common location.

The front will slowly work its way southward through the area on
Monday. A increased risk for stronger storms and locally heavy rain
will remain in the area of convergence ahead of the front as it
drifts south. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms and cooler air
behind the front will lead to high temperatures in the low 80s
across the majority of the area (and even 70s in the mountains!) on
Monday and Tuesday, which will be a welcome break from the recent
heat. Low temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday morning will largely
be in the mid to upper 60s. During the daytime, temperatures will
increase to near daily normals as a Bermuda High becomes more
established in the western Atlantic.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

VFR conds to continue thru the TAF pd, with primarily FEW-SCT cigs
at 3-7kft during the aftn. TSRA psbl from 18-24Z for northern TAF
sites, with low-end chc for probs to continue as late as 01-02Z
for CSG/MCN. Heaviest pcpn may be accompanied by MVFR vsbys in BR
and VRB gusts to 30kt. Outside of TSRA, winds will remain out of
the W side at 6-12kts, with ocnl low-end gusts to 15-18kts psbl.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium confidence afternoon thunderstorm timing.
High confidence all other elements.

96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          95  75  92  72 /  40  20  40  30
Atlanta         93  76  90  73 /  40  20  60  50
Blairsville     84  67  82  66 /  60  60  70  30
Cartersville    93  74  89  71 /  40  40  70  60
Columbus        95  76  94  74 /  20  10  40  30
Gainesville     93  74  89  72 /  40  30  50  30
Macon           95  75  94  73 /  20  10  50  30
Rome            91  73  88  71 /  40  50  80  70
Peachtree City  93  74  90  72 /  30  10  60  40
Vidalia         99  78 100  76 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
GAZ085-086-097-098-111>113.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...96