962
FXUS62 KFFC 182343
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
743 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Key Messages:

- Summertime heat will persist with Heat Index values between 95F
and 105F (possibly higher Sunday into early next week).

- Scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms
(best chances over west-central and far north GA.

The forecast area is currently influenced by an upper level ridge
that is off the east Florida coast, north of the Bahamas. The ridge
extends into eastern/central GA but is breaking down across north GA
as a trough kicks east from the Central Plains. Remnants of a
tropical disturbance from earlier in the week along the northern
Gulf coast are spreading across east TX and west LA. Any convection
we see through this evening will be driven mainly by daytime heating
and weak post-storm outflow boundaries with no real forcing or
support for organized activity across the area.

Similar pattern will exist into Saturday with just a touch more
coverage of showers/storms possible across north GA as a weak upr
trough kicks east across the central Appalachians. The low-to-mid
lvl flow increases just enough to support a few stronger storms
during the afternoon/evening with locally heavy rain and brief gusty
winds.

Temperatures will continue to be warm, running at or just a few
degrees above normal for this time of year. Despite this, the
persistent heat will continue to be a concern with heat index values
topping 100F across a good portion of the area, especially south and
east of I-85.

DJN.83

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Key Messages:

    - Muggy, hot conditions will remain a concern late weekend into
      early next week. Heat Advisories will likely be needed for
      portions of the area Sunday-Tuesday.

    - Mainly isolated diurnal showers and thunderstorms are expected
      over the weekend. Coverage will trend upward by Monday-
      Wednesday as a backdoor front looks to push into the area.

The midlevel subtropical ridge will be parked over the Southeast at
the onset of the long term period with hot temperatures being the
result. Humid conditions courtesy of abundant low-level moisture
will cause heat index values to be maximized during this Sunday-
Tuesday time frame with Monday continuing to favor the hottest
values. As such, Heat Advisory issuance is likely for at least
portions of the area where heat index values over 105 are forecast
with the highest probabilities across east-central Georgia, though
some areas farther north and west could reach criteria on Monday.

Diurnal PoPs will remain fairly limited (isolated to low-end chance
for most) on Sunday with highest across far north Georgia. By Monday
into Tuesday, PoPs should trend upward as a bit of a pattern change
begins to take hold. As a trough pushes through New England on
Monday, a backdoor cold front will begin progressing southwestward
across the Mid-Atlantic and into the Carolinas. Deep moisture ahead
of this front will provide plenty of fuel for diurnally-enhanced
showers and storms with coverage likely being maximized by Tuesday
as the front nudges into the CWA. While there does still remain
model uncertainty regarding the progression of this "wedge" front by
Tuesday into Wednesday, there is fairly good agreement that it will
clear farther across the forecast area. Some degree of drier air
thus may filter into the area by Wednesday into Thursday, which
would affect the areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms (as
well as afternoon heat index values). At this point, PoPs remain in
the chance range with highest probabilities shunting farther
southward by this time.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 737 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

A broken line of TSRA has moved east of the ATL metro area and is
approaching AHN, warranting a TEMPO from 00-02Z. At the other TAF
sites, isolated -SHRA will linger for the next couple of hours,
diminishing further through 01-02Z. A cu field between 040-060
will also diminish after sunset. SCT MVFR level clouds will be
possible in the morning between 12-16Z, most likely in west
Georgia including CSG and ATL. Outside of thunderstorm gusts,
winds will largely remain W/SW through the period, at 4-8 kts this
evening, dropping to 4 kts or less after 06Z, and increasing to
6-10 kts during the daytime on Saturday. On Saturday afternoon,
scattered TSRA will be most likely across far north Georgia.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence on morning low clouds and location of Saturday
afternoon storms.
High confidence on all other elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          74  95  75  95 /  30  20  10  20
Atlanta         75  94  75  93 /  20  30  10  30
Blairsville     67  86  69  88 /  40  60  40  50
Cartersville    73  92  73  93 /  40  40  20  40
Columbus        74  95  75  96 /  20  20  10  20
Gainesville     74  93  75  93 /  40  40  20  30
Macon           74  96  76  96 /  20  10  10  20
Rome            73  91  73  92 /  30  50  20  40
Peachtree City  71  94  73  94 /  20  20  10  30
Vidalia         76  96  77  98 /  30  10   0  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJN.83
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...King