574
FXUS62 KFFC 221922
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
322 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - A Flood Watch is in effect tonight through late Friday evening
    for increased chances for flash flooding especially across
    north Georgia.

  - Shower and thunderstorm coverage increases today with high
    rain chances persisting through Saturday, particularly
    across north Georgia where a frontal boundary will stall.

  - Thunderstorms will bring the risk for heavy rainfall and
    localized flash flooding through late week.

  - High temperatures will trend cooler through late week as the
    front settles into north Georgia before rebounding next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 257 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are beginning to pop up across
north and central Georgia this afternoon. Should see this trend
continue through the evening with the main threats being heavy
rainfall and lightning. The overall flow has our area sandwiched
between TS Bertha`s low pressure center over the northern Gulf and a
frontal boundary currently over Tennessee. We will begin to see this
frontal boundary sink southward overnight tonight into Thursday
where chances for flash flooding will increase. PWATs on the morning
sounding were already near the daily max at ~2" and this trend is
expected to continue as moisture streams in from Bertha and the
frontal boundary becomes the focus for showers and thunderstorms.
Should see scattered to numerous thunderstorms become more prevalent
across the area pushing into Thursday. Thunderstorms will be most
likely during the afternoon and evening time frame but showers will
likely be in place through much of the day. Forecasted PWATs in the
1.9-2.2" range will enhance the showers and thunderstorms and result
in elevated rainfall rates likely in the 1-2"+/hour range with the
heavier storms. A flood watch has been issued beginning at 8pm
tonight and will continue through late Friday night.

One positive of the increased rainfall is increased cloud cover.
This will ultimately lead to decreased heat indices at least for
north Georgia. Today they should top out in the upper 90s to near
100, but tomorrow will see heat indices in the low to mid 90s for
north Georgia and up to ~100 for the remainder of the area.
Temps will be in the mid to upper 80s for far north Georgia and low
to mid 90s for the remainder of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 257 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Extended period begins with the region locked in a slight westerly
flow atop a diffuse and washed out frontal boundary and sandwiched
between the Bermuda ridge over FL, upper trof over the great Lakes
and Berth over TX. This flow regime puts N GA in the perfect
location for moisture to pool and flow parallel to the surface
boundary...while also allowing weak disturbances to migrate across
the region within the weak upper flow. Can see it nicely when
looking at RH forecast at 700mb an 850mb.  Model PWAT values
beginning Friday suggest daily max values over 2.1 inches possible
Friday into Saturday, which when combined with a little upper
forcing and the prospect of training cells suggest flash flooding
possibilities. The current flood watch extends to Friday night,
but in all likelihood will need to be expanded southward and
possibly extended into Saturday. WPC ERO for Friday puts a portion
of the I-20 belt in an upper end SLGT risk which correlates
nicely with the highest moisture plume forecast by model guidance
at the 700mb and 850mb level. By Saturday, Bertha moves out of the
picture and a stronger disturbance within the slowly becoming NW
flow moves toward the area. IF something can organize across KY
or TN, there could be a low end severe risk, but the flood risk is
likely to continue given the continued higher pwat values.

By Sunday, the disturbance that rolls through on Saturday helps
deepen the trof across the eastern US setting up our region in
full fledged NW flow. Drier air is forecast to infiltrate the area
in the mid levels, but there is not any discernible push in the
lower levels meaning the higher, low to mid 70, dpts will remain
in place through the extended. Confidence in the Sunday to
Wednesday portion of the forecast is low given the uncertainties
in dealing with NW flow regimes. NBM unfortunately is yielding sub
15 pops from Sunday night through Tues despite the higher sfc
dpts, instabilities and prospect of any NW flow ripple. Certainly
cant rule out a dry period, but don`t have a lot of confidence
given the other factors. Model soundings suggest more dry air in
the sounding, but a lack of any real inhibition or cap suggests we
could still have some storms around. The other part of the
period...particularly Monday thru Wed is the possibility of a NW
flow disturbance. ECM and GFS both hinting at something moving
through the flow Tue or Wed which could mean some sort of
MCS...which in turn increases the severe risk for the area. AI/ML
guidance also suggest that by day 6 and day 7 some severe probs
which would be expected in this type of setup. For now, the
extended is a lower confidence forecast and one we will need to
watch for both severe and heat hazards.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 136 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Cu field across the area ~3-5kft with isolates showers forming.
Low end chance for TSRA from 22z-02z this evening. Winds remain
out of the S/SW at ~10kt with low end gusts possible through the
afternoon. MVFR deck is likely to settle in again tomorrow morning
before beginning to lift into the afternoon. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are again expected tomorrow afternoon and evening.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on TSRA and MVFR.
High confidence on all other elements.

Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          75  91  71  86 /  20  40  60  80
Atlanta         75  90  74  87 /  20  40  50  80
Blairsville     69  81  66  79 /  70  90  60  90
Cartersville    74  88  73  86 /  40  70  70  90
Columbus        75  94  76  93 /  10  10  10  30
Gainesville     74  88  71  83 /  40  60  80  90
Macon           74  93  75  92 /  10   0  10  50
Rome            73  86  72  86 /  50  80  70  90
Peachtree City  73  90  73  88 /  20  20  40  70
Vidalia         74  97  76  96 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Friday evening
for GAZ001>009-011>016-019>024-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...Hernandez